‘Barbie’ cast is the one to watch at the SAG Awards

Jacob Sarkisian
·5 min read
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“Barbie” is making some strong headway early on in this awards season. The Warner Bros. movie set an all-time record at the Critics Choice Awards as it picked up 18 nominations while it also landed a whopping nine bids from the Golden Globes.  At both awards groups, Greta Gerwig was nominated for Best Director, Margot Robbie for Best Actress, Ryan Gosling for Supporting Actor, and the film for Best Picture. Meanwhile, America Ferrera landed a Supporting Actress bid at the Critics Choice.

This early abundance of love means “Barbie” is potentially becoming the leader of the pack in terms of awards season frontrunner. And the SAG Awards could be next. Currently, we are predicting that “Barbie” will secure bids for Best Ensemble, Best Actress for Robbie, and Best Supporting Actor for Gosling. “Oppenheimer” is predicted to win Best Ensemble but “Barbie” could sneak ahead for several reasons.

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Firstly, Gerwig has a little bit of history in this category. “Little Women” was snubbed completely by SAG but her previous film “Lady Bird” was nominated for Best Ensemble in 2018, the same year that Christopher Nolan‘s “Dunkirk” was snubbed by the guild. In fact, no Nolan film has ever been nominated for Best Ensemble at SAG.

That’s likely because his films are often more rewarded for their technical achievements — be it cinematography, editing, sound, effects, or score — rather than the actors’ performances on screen. Gerwig has shown, however, in her much smaller filmography, that voters do reward her films more for their acting. So, while we think “Oppenheimer” will become the first Nolan film to land a Best Ensemble nomination at SAG, Gerwig’s “Barbie” should not be underestimated. It’s a heightened film full of physical comedy, singing, dancing, and performance in a way that “Oppenheimer” doesn’t have. Of course, the performances in “Oppenheimer” are fantastic but “Barbie” features more showy roles for its actors — it’s like musical theater kids at camp — and SAG voters will love that.

Plus, “Barbie” is heightened fiction. Best Ensemble tends to go to fictional tales rather than films based on true stories. Seven out of the last 10 winners have gone to such movies: “American Hustle,” “Birdman,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “Black Panther,” “Parasite,” “CODA,” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” The three winners that were true stories were “Spotlight,” “Hidden Figures,” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” Barbie certainly fits into that category and when the fictional films have won, they often edge out true stories. “CODA” beat “King Richard,” “Parasite” beat “The Irishman” and “Bombshell,” and “Black Panther” beat “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “BlacKkKansman.” “Barbie” beating “Oppenheimer” would fit that pattern.

Best Ensemble does seem to go to more colorful films. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was a genre extravaganza; “Parasite” blended thriller, horror, comedy, and social drama; “Three Billboards” was a wicked black comedy; “Black Panther” was a comic book movie. “Barbie,” again, fits the bill of the profile of film SAG voters typically like to reward in this category. It’s fun, vibrant, smashes together different genres, and has a distinct, unique flavor.

Ferrera may miss out on a supporting nomination at SAG (we don’t currently predict that she will be nominated) so “Barbie” may receive two individual nominations (Robbie and Gosling) as opposed to the predicted three of “Oppenheimer” (Actor for Cillian Murphy, Supporting Actress for Emily Blunt, Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr). But will that actually hurt the chances of “Barbie” claiming Best Ensemble? Not necessarily. “CODA” won Best Supporting Actor for Troy Kotsur alongside its Best Ensemble win but that was the only other nomination it received. That year, “House of Gucci” and “The Power of the Dog” both landed three nominations apiece including two individual nominations for each film. But “CODA” won Best Ensemble.

Similarly, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” won Best Ensemble with only one other nomination (Supporting Actor for Sacha Baron Cohen) while “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” had three nominations and even won Best Actor (Chadwick Boseman) and Best Actress (Viola Davis). Yet it couldn’t win Best Ensemble. The year “Parasite” won, “Bombshell” was nominated four times, and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood,” “Marriage Story,” and “The Irishman” were nominated three times. “Parasite’s” Best Ensemble win was its only nomination. The year that “Black Panther” won, “A Star is Born” landed four bids, and “The Favourite” and “BlacKkKlansman” three times. “Black Panther’s” only other nomination came for Best Stunt Ensemble (which it won). So, more nominations does NOT mean a greater chance at winning Best Ensemble. That could work in “Barbie’s” favor yet again.

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