‘Barbie’ Is Here to Break Warner Bros. Out of Its Yearlong Box Office Slump
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The last 12 months have been filled with pain for Warner Bros. A merger with Discovery earned its CEO, David Zaslav, ugly headlines and the disdain of many in Hollywood. Most of its theatrical releases have been misfires, including one of the biggest bombs in studio history with “The Flash.” This century-old studio is in need of a hero.
So here comes “Barbie” to the rescue.
Since the studio released its “2001: A Space Odyssey”-inspired teaser trailer alongside “Avatar: The Way of Water” this past winter, Greta Gerwig’s comedy about the most famous doll ever made has captured the attention and imagination of millions and, with the help of Universal’s “Oppenheimer,” has turned July 21 into the most talked-about date on the film release calendar.
That date is finally drawing near and box office projections show that online hype is converting to dollars and cents in a big way. And if the movie is as successful as anticipated, “Barbie” is set to be Warner Bros.’ biggest opening weekend since the $134 million domestic launch of “The Batman” 16 months ago.
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Warner Bros. is keeping its projections conservative at $75 million, which would still be a decent result for the film against its reported $145 million budget. Independent box office projections have reached as high as $115 million-$120 million, a range that would put it alongside the opening weekends of “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.” Exhibitors who spoke to TheWrap said they wouldn’t rule out “Barbie” beating the openings of both of those films given extremely strong advance ticket sales.
While there have been some animated tentpoles like “The Lego Movie 2” and the “Trolls” series that have basked in all things bright and colorful, there hasn’t really been a major studio release like “Barbie.” Sporting an acclaimed, Oscar-nominated writer-director in Greta Gerwig, a loaded ensemble cast led by Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, a colorful, toy-inspired fantasy land and plenty of self-aware commentary and comedy about the doll franchise it is based on, “Barbie” has stood out as a summer tentpole that unabashedly appeals primarily to women but with more than enough crossover appeal to draw in men.
Outside of its struggles with DC, Warner Bros. has been able in recent years to take a film that, on its face, didn’t have a particularly strong core audience and grow interest thanks to a smart marketing campaign. This strength was on exhibit in 2021 with “Dune,” a film based on an extremely dense and difficult-to-read sci-fi novel that, despite the challenges of the post-shutdown box office that year, became director Denis Villeneuve’s highest-grossing film thanks to trailers and promotional material that drew attention to the film’s cast, led by Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya, and the film’s larger-than-life alien worlds that demand to be seen on the big screen.
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A similar strategy is at play here with “Barbie,” thanks to multiple trailers and clips that have shown off the detailed, cotton-candy pink Barbieland and the perfect comedic timing of the film’s cast. Whether it is Robbie and her fellow Barbies screaming at the horrors of flat feet, the deadpan delivery of Kate McKinnon’s Weird Barbie or Ryan Gosling’s goofy power ballad “Just Ken,” every sneak peek Warner has released has been a hit with audiences and grown excitement for the film.
The question for “Barbie” isn’t whether it will be a box office success, but just how big. Women will without a doubt make up the majority of its opening weekend audience, but the question is whether it will bring sustained turnout from men and teen audiences in the weeks ahead to become a true four-quadrant hit in the way that “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” expanded from families to encompass all demographics this past spring.
If it does, that could mean significant competition for “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning,” as well as upcoming movies like “Haunted Mansion” and “Gran Turismo.” This spring gave us a taste of how many major releases the current theatrical market can support at the same time, and not all films survived. We may be in store for the most hotly contested and lucrative weekend the box office has seen in some time. But if “Barbie” is in the pink, other movies may find themselves in the red.
