Will the BAFTAs and SAG Awards have completely different sets of acting winners? That’s never happened before

The BAFTA Awards just gave its acting prizes to Cate Blanchett (“TÁR“), Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and “The Banshees of Inisherin” duo Kerry Condon and Barry Keoghan, but we may have a different set of winners at Sunday’s Screen Actors Guild Awards. In fact, completely different if our odds prove to be correct. At the moment, Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”), Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) and Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) are the projected champs, which would mean no overlap with the Brits. But how many times have SAG and BAFTA gone 0 for 4?

Since BAFTA became an Oscar precursor 22 years ago, the answer to that is zero. Even with various snubs, ineligible films and category messiness — Jennifer Connelly (2001’s “A Beautiful Mind”) losing in lead at SAG and winning in supporting at BAFTA; Alicia Vikander (2015’s “The Danish Girl”) winning in supporting at SAG and losing in lead at BAFTA — the two groups have never completely disagreed on their acting winners.

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SAG and BAFTA usually match two out of four winners, which has happened 12 times. This includes situations like that of Benicio del Toro (2000’s “Traffic”) and Kate Winslet (2008’s “The Reader”), who won in different categories at each show. They didn’t go 4 for 4 until the class of 2014 pulled it off with Julianne Moore (“Still Alice”), Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Patricia Arquette (“Boyhood”) and J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”). They’ve matched perfectly twice since with the class of 2017 (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri’s” lead Frances McDormand and supporting actor Sam Rockwell; Gary Oldman for “Darkest Hour”; Allison Janney for “I, Tonya”) and the class of 2019 (Renee Zellweger for “Judy”; Joaquin Phoenix for “Joker”; Laura Dern for “Marriage Story”; Brad Pitt for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”).

Last year, SAG and BAFTA could only go 3 for 4 since their respective Best Actress winners — Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) and Joanna Scanlan (“After Love”) — were not nominated at the other show. And two years ago, they just matched in the supporting categories with Yuh-Jung Youn (“Minari”) and Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”).

SEE Full list of BAFTA winners

There have been three instances with just one winner overlap, but they’re all asterisked. As aforementioned, Connelly was in different categories at SAG and BAFTA, and she only won the latter. Halle Berry (“Monster’s Ball”) beat her for the lead actress SAG and was ineligible at BAFTA until the following year, when she lost to Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”). Connelly’s “A Beautiful Mind” co-star Russell Crowe was the only person that year who won both awards. Two years later, the groups only agreed on Zellweger (“Cold Mountain”), who swept the supporting actress race. Charlize Theron was unable to complete her Best Actress sweep that season because “Monster” was ineligible at BAFTA; like Berry, she was nominated the following year but lost to Imelda Staunton (“Vera Drake”). Release date issues also interrupted the domination by “Dallas Buyers Club” (2013) stars Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto, who were MIA at BAFTA. Blanchett was the sole common winner that year as she cleaned house with “Blue Jasmine.”

There are no eligibility issues or category discord this year. Based on all of this, it’s likely that at least two BAFTA champs emerging victorious at the SAG Awards as well. The best bet would be on Butler and Blanchett carrying over. The former, who just rose to the top spot in the Oscar odds, can go toe to toe with Fraser in the transformation department (for totally different reasons, of course) and is playing an icon in a popular movie. Plus, he just defeated the heavily favored Colin Farrell on his home turf while his “Banshees” co-stars won. Blanchett wasn’t an upset at BAFTA, but she’s won every televised precursor so far and is now the only performer left who can sweep the season. Bassett and Quan are the most likely to rebound from their BAFTA defeats as their hit films ought to fare better with a populist group like SAG-AFTRA. Bassett has already taken home a SAG Award with the cast of the first “Blank Panther” (2018), while Quan had been cruising this season until BAFTA. A five-time nominee, “Everything Everywhere” is expected to top the night with three wins, including ensemble.

If SAG and BAFTA were to just have one crossover, that will probably be Butler. SAG has long been viewed as the place Yeoh can notch an industry win head to head over Blanchett. “Everything Everywhere” is also not just the Oscar frontrunner but a strong guild player. It’s already nabbed the Directors Guild of America Award and pulled off an upset at the Art Directors Guild Awards when it’s not even nominated in production design at the Oscars. But Blanchett has also proven to be very formidable as she beat Yeoh at Critics Choice, where the latter was the favorite and “Everything Everywhere” scored five wins.

Given the states of each race and SAG-AFTRA’s tastes, it’s less likely the group will copy and paste three or all four of the Brits’ choices. And while the favored SAG quartet makes a lotta sense on paper, history suggests going 0 for 4 is not in the cards. But there’s always a first time for everything.

PREDICTthe 2023 SAG Awards winners by Feb. 26

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