After BAFTAs, ‘Banshees of Inisherin’ overtakes ‘Everything’ in Oscar odds for Best Original Screenplay

In what has been shaping up to be one of the closest Oscar races of the year, the lead has changed hands again in our odds for Best Original Screenplay. After its victory at the BAFTA Awards, “The Banshees of Inisherin” has taken a very narrow lead against “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Click on the graph below to see how this tight race has shifted since nominations were announced on January 24.

Written by Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin” tells the original story of two Irishmen whose friendship abruptly ends. The dialogue- and character-driven script now gets leading odds of 69/20 based on the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. It’s backed by 14 out of 23 Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets, seven out of 13 Gold Derby Editors, 11 of our Top 24 Users, and 13 of our All-Star Top 24. Of those groups, only the Top 24 have a majority still going for “Everything Everywhere” as of this writing.

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SEEColin Farrell (‘The Banshees of Inisherin’): ‘I’m pinching myself’ over Oscar nomination [Complete Interview Transcript]

But “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is still the favorite for Best Picture by a substantial margin. Can “Banshees” really beat it for best writing? There’s precedent for such a split. “The Shape of Water” (2017) won Best Picture and Best Director (as “Everything” is currently predicted to do), but it lost Best Original Screenplay to “Get Out.” Likewise, “Nomadland” (2020) won Best Picture and Best Director but lost Best Adapted Screenplay to “The Father.” So it’s possible the academy will spread the wealth to McDonagh for his scripting.

However, the academy has also shown that they don’t mind a sweep. “Birdman” (2014) won the hat trick of Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay. So did “Parasite” (2019). And “Everything Everywhere” won those three categories at the Critics Choice Awards. So it looks like this race will probably stay close all the way to the finish line.

PREDICTthe 2023 Oscar winners through March 12

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