BAFTA upset brewing: Vivian Oparah could follow Joanna Scanlan with Best Actress win on home soil

BAFTA threw up plenty of surprises and snobs in their nominations lineups this year with Best Actress one of the most intriguing and head-scratching categories of the year. “Killers of the Flower Moon” star Lily Gladstone was snubbed while Annette Bening (“Nyad”) also didn’t make the cut. Both of those performers were nominated at the Oscars, however.

Instead, the BAFTA nominees for Best Actress are Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”), Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”), Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”), Margot Robbie (“Barbie”), Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), and Vivian Oparah (“Rye Lane”). Stone is the obvious frontrunner and the thespian at the top of our BAFTA odds chart for this category but one name in that list sticks out as a potential challenger: Oparah.

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The British actress had a breakout year in 2023 with her role in Searchlight Pictures/Disney’s charming”Rye Lane,” which follows Oparah (Yas) and David Jonsson (Dom) as two strangers who get to know each other after both going through breakups. And critics have loved both the film and Oparah’s performance.

Brian Tallerico (Roger Ebert) proclaimed: “‘Rye Lane’ belongs to Oparah. It’s as much a breakout performance as you’ll see this year. She’s one of those performers who naturally holds the camera in a way that you want to see what she does next. No wonder Dom finally comes back to life when they meet.”

Clarisse Loughrey (The Independent) explained: “Yas is a far cry from those ‘Garden State’-style manic pixie dream girls so saccharine they rotted the teeth of many a 2000s indie romcom. Shaped by Nathan Bryon and Tom Melia’s script, and given an electric grin by Oparah (whose easy charm means she has ‘future star’ written all over her), she’s as real and relatable as they come.”

Fletcher Peters (The Daily Beast) opined: “As Yas and Dom, Oparah and Jonsson’s performances left me hungry for more. Newcomer Oparah has a level of spunk that feels so refreshing in a female romantic lead.”

This critical acclaim has also translated to key awards success that could mean Oparah is a dark-horse to steal a BAFTA Best Actress win out from under Stone. Firstly, Oparah was nominated for two British Independent Film Awards (BIFAs) in late 2023 — for Best Joint Lead Performance with Jonsson and Best Breakthrough Performance. She won the latter category. This gave her a stellar platform of awards attention, particularly as “Rye Lane” was also nominated for Best Film and Best Director and received the most BIFA nominations with 16 bids.

This led to “Rye Lane” receiving two BAFTA nominations, one for Best Actress for Oparah and one for Best British Film. It was expected to reap a Best British Film bid but the fact that Oparah got in above the likes of Gladstone and Bening shows how much BAFTA voters loved the film and her performance. The nomination itself feels like a win for Oparah but could she turn it into an actual victory? BAFTA history suggests she could.

Joanna Scanlan won Best Actress for “After Love” in 2022, edging out the likes of major Hollywood names such as Lady Gaga (“House of Gucci”) and Tessa Thompson (“Passing”). However, it must be said that none of the performers in the 2022 BAFTA Best Actress lineup were nominated for Oscars, so it was a free hit, really. The eventual Oscar champ was Jessica Chastain, who won for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” However, British thespian Scanlan still took home the award over some big names.

Plenty of other British actors have also triumphed at the BAFTAS, including Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) in 2019, Mulligan (“An Education”) in 2010, Kate Winslet (“The Reader”) in 2009, Helen Mirren (“The Queen”) in 2007, Imelda Staunton (“Vera Drake”) in 2005, and Judi Dench (“Iris”) in 2002.

This shows that BAFTA loves to reward their own, so Oparah could benefit from this pattern herself. Mulligan’s win for “An Education” is also key here. That film was a breakout role for Mulligan, who was announced as an up-and-coming star the same way “Rye Lane” made Oparah one to watch. That year, Mulligan beat out Oscar nominees Meryl Streep (“Julie & Julia”) and Gabourey Sidibe (“Precious”) to take home the BAFTA. However, Mulligan was also nominated for an Oscar that year while eventual Oscar champ Sandra Bullock (“The Blind Side”) was snubbed at BAFTA.

Still, there is clear critical and awards support for Oparah while BAFTA have proven that they are winning to overlook big names and Oscar frontrunners in favor of British actors and up-and-coming stars. Oparah winning at BAFTA would still be a shock as Stone is such a heavy favorite, but it would be a shock that makes sense and could, in theory, play out. Let’s see.

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