BAFTA predictions: Colin Farrell has the lead in our odds against Oscar front-runner Brendan Fraser

Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) is the favorite to win a close Oscar race for Best Actor, but that’s not the way we think it’ll go at the BAFTAs on Sunday, February 19. Irish actor Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”), who ranks third in our Oscar odds, is the front-runner to win Best Actor from the British academy. Could that signal a shift in the awards season that will lead Farrell to an Oscar upset?

As of this writing nine of the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets predict that Farrell will win BAFTA. Compare that to two who say Austin Butler (“Elvis”) will prevail and one apiece betting on Fraser and Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”). Likewise, nine Gold Derby Editors are predicting Farrell with just one betting on Fraser. It’s a close race when you look at our Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s BAFTAs: 12 of them say Farrell, while eight think Fraser will pull it out and four bet on Butler. But among our All-Star Top 24 who got the highest scores when you combine the last two years’ BAFTAs, a whopping 20 favor Farrell with only two apiece going for Fraser and Butler.

More from GoldDerby

• Oscar Experts Typing: Will Kerry Condon have the luck of the Irish over Angela Bassett at the BAFTAs?

• Todd Field ('Tár') reveals Lydia is 'a character I'd been thinking about for around 10 years' [Complete Interview Transcript]

• Can Steven Spielberg ('The Fabelmans') win Best Director Oscar despite BAFTA snub?

SEEWill ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ be just the fourth film in 30 years to claim the Best Picture and British Film BAFTAs?

But what might that mean for the Oscars? For the last eight years in a row the BAFTAs and Oscars have agreed on Best Actor. That includes years when the Oscar race seemed close: Casey Affleck won for “Manchester by the Sea” (2016), a premonition of his eventual triumph over Denzel Washington (“Fences”) at the Oscars. And Anthony Hopkins won both for “The Father” (2020) even though Chadwick Boseman was widely favored to win posthumously at the Oscars for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”

So even though Farrell seems to have a unique hometown advantage at the BAFTAs — he stars in a British film with 10 total nominations including Best Picture — a victory here could signal that a victory is on the way at the Oscars too. At the same time, if Yanks Butler or Fraser manage to win the BAFTA despite less overall support for their films (though “Elvis” is also a Best Picture nominee), that could make them downright indomitable at the Oscars. So this may be a must-win for Farrell if he hopes to stay in the race.

PREDICTthe BAFTA Awards now

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

Best of GoldDerby

• 'RRR' actor NTR Jr. praises S. S. Rajamouli as 'the greatest director' in India [Complete Interview Transcript]

• BAFTA predictions: 'Banshees of Inisherin,' 'Everything Everywhere' will dominate

• Todd Field ('Tár') reveals Lydia is 'a character I'd been thinking about for around 10 years' [Complete Interview Transcript]

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.