‘Avatar’ Delay Pushes Disney Film Schedule – and Can Make or Break Bob Iger’s Legacy | Analysis

The Walt Disney Company dropped a deluge of new release dates on Tuesday, including two “Star Wars” movies in a single year, along with a bunch of Marvel delays, a big delay for the “Avatar” saga and a firm slot for that live-action “Moana” movie. Save for the in-production “Deadpool 3,” which actually moved up to May 2024, this means fans will have to wait a little longer for most of their favorite Disney IP expansions. And it all started with one move.

“A delay with ‘Avatar 3’ caused a domino effect that shifted much of Disney’s future theatrical slate,” an industry insider told TheWrap.

Beyond the individual circumstances behind each movie’s new release date, the overall impact is one that protects Marvel from strike-related complications and assures that Bob Iger’s shadow looms large over his replacement well after he steps down as Disney’s CEO for the second time, according to several Disney and film industry insiders who spoke with TheWrap.

Let Cameron cook

According to individuals with knowledge of Disney’s plans, the main reason behind much of this shuffle is that director James Cameron and his producing partner Jon Landau informed the studio they wouldn’t be able to finish “Avatar 3” for its December 2024 release slot, opting instead for December 2025 with parts four and five slated for late 2029 and late 2031. To use Disney parks lingo, there’s no fast pass when it comes to Pandorian perfection.

This isn’t immediately a cause for concern. After all, “Avatar: The Way of Water” was initially set for a December 2014 release but got eight release date pushes before finally coming out last winter as Cameron continued to work on the visual effects and a multi-film story for Jake Sully and the Na’vi. Whether the ongoing Writers Guild strike or the possibility of an actors’ strike if SAG-AFTRA doesn’t reach a new contract played a factor in this delay is unclear. But taking into account the franchise’s history of prolonged production, it wouldn’t be surprising if labor disputes weren’t part of the equation.

But after “The Way of Water” grossed $2.3 billion amid strong reviews and buzz, Cameron has plenty of goodwill to get a one-year delay with Disney and the moviegoing populace. It may be possible an extra year of delay only increases hype for “Avatar 3,” as fans seem to have bought into “The Way of Water,” not only for its spectacle but also for the story.

Plus, giving “Avatar 3” and “Avatar 4” a four-year space furthers the filmmaker-friendly narrative that nobody is going to rush Cameron as he delivers his five-film opus on his own schedule.

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The strike snaps Marvel

Because the film industry doesn’t operate on the same annual schedule the way network television does, the impact a Hollywood labor strike can have on films isn’t as immediately visible, as studios can more discreetly delay any movies that have to pause production.

But when one film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe must move — for continuity reasons, among other things — the rest must move too. It’s ironic that the MCU, which is often compared to a long-running TV series, could be impacted by the strike in a manner closer to episodic TV than stand-alone feature films.

It has also been reported that shooting on “Blade” and “Thunderbolts,” both set for 2024 releases, have been delayed as the Writers Guild has gone on strike. While “Blade” is now set for Valentine’s Day weekend, “Thunderbolts” marks the first time Disney has scheduled a Marvel film for the holiday season. The release date pushes will give them the time they need to be completed whenever the strike ends.

“Deadpool 3” presses on

Meanwhile, “Deadpool 3” has continued to shoot in Vancouver during the strike. Shawn Levy’s R-rated action comedy, which reunites Ryan Reynolds’ Wade Wilson and Hugh Jackman’s Logan from the “X-Men” franchise, has been slotted as the summer kick-off movie of May 2024.

“My one big question,” asked a rival studio insider when speaking to TheWrap, “is how they are making the earlier ‘Deadpool 3’ release date with an ongoing WGA strike and a possible SAG strike on the horizon.”

The earlier release date could partially be because the current inability to ad-lib means production might just be racing along. Or, more optimistically, perhaps the schedule has frontloaded the action scenes with dialogue-heavy sequences set for when the strike(s) hopefully come to an end.

Avengers will reassemble eventually

As for what this means for the “Avengers” movies, it’s two-fold. First, going seven years between “Avengers: Endgame” and “Avengers: The Kang Dynasty” will potentially enhance the event movie status of the Destin Daniel Cretton-directed epic.

Granted, that’s somewhat speculative, but getting films as big as “Avengers” or “Star Wars” as a semi-regular occurrence is a relatively new development. However, the push certainly plays into absence making the heart grow fonder while also further cementing Phase Four and Phase Five characters like Shang-Chi, Mr. Fantastic and Blade who will presumably take part in the big event flick.

Speaking of major characters, this will give Marvel more time to figure out what to do, if anything, about Jonathan Majors’ current legal problems related to his domestic violence charges. It’s worth noting that Majors’ “Magazine Dreams,” a Searchlight Sundance pick-up remains on the schedule for Dec. 8. However, that indie can be shuffled or discarded at a moment’s notice with little macro impact.

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“Star Wars” returns to theaters

We’re getting two “Star Wars” movies in the same year, one over Memorial Day weekend 2026 and the other in the prime pre-Christmas December 2026 slot.

“I suppose this implies,” stated Box Office Pro chief analyst Shawn Robbins, “Disney and Lucasfilm feel they can correct the creative and corporate missteps that led to the misfire of a film like ‘Solo.'”

Furthermore, he added “The intent and interest were there, but the process was interrupted by highly publicized production drama. The final result was a movie that, to many, simply didn’t feel like an organically produced ‘Star Wars’ story.”

In other words, the well-reviewed but indifferently received prequel didn’t bomb — $394 million on a reshoot-enhanced $275 million budget — because of “Star Wars fatigue” or any actual backlash (beyond vocal online minorities) to the $1.33 billion-grossing “Star Wars: The Last Jedi,” nor due to having two “Star Wars” movies released in a six-month time span.

“So-called ‘fatigue’ is a term that’s bandied about almost willy-nilly,” said Robbins. “Broadly speaking, audiences don’t get tired of spending time with their favorite characters or immersed in their favorite fantasy realm.”

Moreover, if Lucasfilm and Disney need to reestablish “Star Wars” as a theatrical event franchise after years of Disney+ TV shows, two huge movies in one year is one way to do that. Moreover, going seven years between “The Rise of Skywalker” and the Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy-directed, Daisy Ridley-starring sequel (presuming that title is the one opening Dec. 18) again makes this next “Star Wars” movie more of an event by virtue of scarcity.

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So what does all this mean for Bob Iger?

As absurd as it may be to plan for movies slated for December of 2031 (though a Disney insider admitted these dates are subject to change and “sometimes you have to recalibrate”) the advance planning accomplishes two goals.

First, it plants flags in the sand for key release dates well in advance of rival studio films, which may be key to securing prime placement on Imax, Dolby and related premium large format screens. Granted, as affirmed by distribution insiders speaking to TheWrap, “given how embedded PLF companies are with Marvel/Disney and aligned with James Cameron’s ‘Avatar’ franchise, all those releases already had priority in securing large-format screens.”

Second, and more importantly, it cements Iger’s second and (presumably) final tenure as the Walt Disney Company CEO.

The into-next-decade scheduling “reiterates Iger’s legacy of acquisition,” stated a studio insider, referring to Iger’s $4 billion purchases of Marvel in 2009 and Lucasfilm in 2012. Intentional or not, this means the presumed top-tier theatrical revenue (and later A-level streaming content to Disney+), will be a testament to Iger long after his successor has taken the reigns.

However, there’s a risk to this playbook. If Marvel aggressively peaked with “Avengers: Endgame,” if the “Star Wars” franchise without Luke, Han and Leia is just another sci-fi franchise, if “Moana” shows that the live-action remake factory is only huge when adapting Katzenberg-era toons and if the former Fox franchises aren’t as vibrant, give or take “Avatar,” under the Disney umbrella, well, that’s a lot of baggage from the old CEO to be handled by the new CEO.

But if it works, then Iger’s star will continue to burn brightly long after he has moved on.

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