‘Avatar 2’ Sets Sights on Next Box Office Target: Beating ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’

On Wednesday, Disney/20th Century’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” will pass $1.75 billion at the global box office, putting it approximately $150 million away from passing what currently stands as the highest grossing film of the pandemic era: Sony/Marvel’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home.”

It was a year ago that “No Way Home” became a cultural phenomenon as a “Spider-Man” crossover two decades in the making. While other films saw their box office fortunes killed by bad word-of-mouth and older moviegoers staying home amidst the COVID-19 Omicron surge, “No Way Home” was unstoppable, amassing an $814 million domestic total that stands is the third all-time highest before inflation and a $1.1 billion overseas total without the aid of China.

Yet “Avatar: The Way of Water” is putting up such a torrid pace with a $1.19 billion overseas total so far that it will soon have made more money internationally than “No Way Home” even when China is taken out. Keep in mind that China, where the film has grossed $193 million so far, is still significantly underperforming as COVID surges take their toll on the populace and economy.

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Three countries in particular are contributing to this boost: France, Germany and South Korea. “Avatar 2” has grossed $111 million in France and passed 10 million admissions this past weekend, putting it on pace to pass the 14.7 million admissions sold by the first “Avatar.” In Germany, the film has more than doubled the gross of “No Way Home” with $95 million and counting, while Korea’s $86 million total and 8.78 million admissions as of this past weekend passes the $61 million gross and 7.5 million admissions of “No Way Home.” It’s on track to become the ninth Hollywood film in the country to reach the 10 million admission mark in South Korea.

Back in the United States, “Avatar 2” probably won’t pass the $814 million domestic total of “No Way Home,” especially with Marvel’s “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania” taking away premium format support on Feb. 16. But the film’s legs are very strong here as well with a $45 million total this past weekend. The only film to post a higher fourth weekend total? The first “Avatar” with $50.3 million.

The fifth weekend hold should be just as strong. While the Universal horror film “M3GAN” has a chance to post up a strong hold in its second weekend after opening to $30.4 million, it shouldn’t keep “Avatar 2” from posting another weekend drop of 30%-35% and getting a fifth weekend total of approximately $30 million domestic, possibly closer to $35 million if moviegoing turnout is strong for the Martin Luther King Day weekend.

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“Avatar 2” won’t have any serious new release competition, as the biggest newcomers this weekend are the wide expansion of Sony’s “A Man Called Otto” starring Tom Hanks and Lionsgate’s Gerard Butler action film “Plane.” With a 67% Rotten Tomatoes critics score and a 97% audience score from its limited release run, “A Man Call Otto” is projected for a three-day $8-10 million opening — Sony is projecting $8 million over four days — while “Plane” is projected for a $5-7 million 3-day opening with 4-day projections topping out at $10 million.

Warner Bros. is also releasing New Line’s remake of the 90s comedy “House Party” in around 1,300 theaters, a pivot made under CEO David Zaslav after it was greenlit as an HBO Max exclusive prior to the Warner Bros. Discovery merger. The film is projected for a 4-day opening of $4-6 million

Box office analysts who spoke to TheWrap project a global fifth weekend total of $120 million for “Avatar 2.” That may be enough for “Avatar: The Way of Water” to pass “No Way Home” for sixth on the all-time charts as early as Sunday and likely no later than Tuesday. From there it will be an easy march to $2 billion, a mark that once seemed impossible without a fully functioning Chinese market.

But instead, “The Way of Water” has proven that after 13 years, the global hunger for more Pandora and more Na’vi is as strong as it ever was. The future of “Avatar” is secure. The law of diminishing returns may yet come to strike this sci-fi saga but James Cameron so far has defied such conventions, and that may mean that Disney has three more holiday season windfalls to enjoy in the years ahead.

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