Art Directors Guild predictions: Will ‘Lord of the Rings’ upset ‘House of the Dragon’ again?

Daniel Montgomery
·3 min read
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As a prequel to “Game of Thrones,” “House of the Dragon” could be an awards magnet (and has already won Best Drama Series at the Golden Globes). But despite “Thrones” winning more than two dozen Visual Effects Society Awards over the course of its run, “Dragon” was upset by “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power” for Best Visual Effects in a Photoreal Episode (for episode six, “Udun”). Next, the two fantasy epics will face off at the February 18 Art Directors Guild Awards. Can “LOTR” keep “HOTD” at bay again?

As of this writing “Dragon” leads with 82/25 odds based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users. Jim Clay is the nominated production designer for the premiere episode “The Heirs of the Dragon” in the category for one-hour single-camera fantasy series. This would be Clay’s first ADG victory, but “Game of Thrones” previously won five ADG Awards during its run, so we know the guild is fond of this universe. Currently six out of the nine Expert journalists we’ve surveyed are betting on “Dragon,” as well as all Gold Derby Editors, 17 of our Top 24 Users, and 18 of our All-Star Top 24.

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But “Rings of Power” is close behind with 19/5 odds. It’s backed by three Experts, four Top Users, and two All-Stars. Its production designer Ramsey Avery is up for the third episode of the season, “Adar.” Like Clay, Avery would be a first time winner with the guild, but two of the three “LOTR” feature films won ADG Awards (“The Two Towers” and “The Return of the King”), and two out of three “Hobbit” movies were nominated, so this is also a universe the industry has an affinity for.

But maybe this isn’t just a two-way race. One Top User and one All-Star is predicting “Andor.” One Top User is betting on “Wednesday.” And “Stranger Things” is a three-time nominee at the ADG Awards. A lot can surprise us at the guilds, as we’ve already seen at the VES Awards.

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