Can anyone stop SZA and Victoria Monet in R&B album races at the Grammys?

At the Grammys, Best R&B Album and Best Progressive R&B Album have gone to some of the most influential artists in the industry, including Erykah Badu, Boyz II Men, Mary J. Blige, Chaka Khan, Frank Ocean, Beyoncé and Robert Glasper (much to Chris Brown’s chagrin). Let’s break down this year’s contenders.

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Best R&B Album
Emily King’s “Special Occasion” might be in fifth place here, especially considering King has the least commercial success and it’s not a particularly acclaimed album. Inversely, while Summer Walker is a huge star, the Grammys seem to be iffy on her: this is her first nomination ever despite multiple hit records. As such, it’s possible the relative lack of competition for the nomination played more of a role in her getting in than actual passion for the record; with no nominations elsewhere, “Clear 2: Soft Life EP” might also not win.

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That leaves us with our top three. Coco Jones’s “What I Didn’t Tell You (Deluxe)” has performed well, getting into Soul Train’s Album of the Year lineup (like fellow Grammy nominees Walker, Babyface, and Victoria Monét). However, the album is mostly carried by the success of its single “ICU” and hasn’t really made a huge splash as a whole with critics or the general public. Still, Jones was nominated all across the R&B field, so there’s definitely a lot of love for her this year.

Babyface’s “Girls Night Out” has performed reasonably well for him, and he’s undoubtedly a legend. However, I have to wonder if the record has the impact it needs to win. Also, Babyface will likely win Best R&B Song for SZA’s “Snooze,” so there might not be any urgency to reward him here.

Meanwhile, the Recording Academy seemed to embrace songwriter-extraordinaire Victoria Monét with open arms this year, giving her seven nominations. Now, having the most nominations doesn’t necessarily correlate with winning; just look at Robert Glasper upsetting Mary J. Blige last year on his sole nom. However, Monét’s nominations, unlike Blige’s, seem to be less about namechecking a veteran and more about actual passion, especially for her to get into Record of the Year for “On My Mama.”

That, combined with the fact that “Jaguar II” is the biggest commercial success of this category’s top three, has the biggest hit of any of the albums (the aforementioned “On My Mama”), and is easily the most acclaimed, will likely carry Monét to a win. And don’t forget the fact that the album also got nominations for both Producer of the Year and Best Engineered Album, the latter of which is often key to winning in your genre.

Will win: Victoria Monét, “Jaguar II”
Could win: Babyface, “Girls Night Out”
Dark horse: Coco Jones, “What I Didn’t Tell You (Deluxe)”

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Best Progressive R&B Album
How much do we need to discuss this when SZA’s “SOS” is the clear frontrunner here? She got nine nominations, including Album, Record and Song of the Year and bids all across the R&B field. “SOS” is arguably the biggest R&B record of the last 10 years, spending 10 weeks atop the Billboard 200 and scoring five top-10 hits in the US. The album is also massive with critics, scoring 90 on Metacritic.

If you were to guess a surprise winner here, it’s likely Janelle Monáe due to the fact that her “The Age of Pleasure” scored a surprise Album of the Year nomination, a great get for Monáe. And if there’s a dark horse contender, James Fauntleroy and Terrace Martin’s “Nova” is the type of Grammy-insider pick that could muster up support from some independent voters. But don’t overthink it: SZA’s “SOS” winning here is likely the biggest lock of the night.

Will win: SZA, “SOS”
Could win: Janelle Monáe, “The Age of Pleasure”
Dark horse: Terrace Martin & James Fauntleroy, “Nova”

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