Will Alexander Payne go up against Martin Scorsese for Best Director Oscar for the 4th time?

According to our combined Oscar predictions as of this writing, Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) is in second place for Best Director with 4/1 odds. Meanwhile, Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”) is on the bubble in sixth place with 16/1 odds. Both movies are currently expected to reap bids for Best Picture. What’s especially interesting is that, so far, every time Payne has been nominated for Best Director, he has been up against Scorsese. Could that happen again this year?

SEEDa’Vine Joy Randolph (‘The Holdovers’) takes the lead in Oscar odds for Best Supporting Actress

“The Holdovers” follows Paul Hunham (Paul Giamatti), a teacher at Barton Academy in the 1970s, who supervises students who are unable to return home for Christmas. In this case, Paul is forced to deal with one particularly rebellious student, Angus (Dominic Sessa), who is mourning the death of his father.

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Payne’s first Best Director nom from the academy was for “Sideways” back in 2004, which was actually his previous collaboration with Paul Giamatti. It also received bids for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Thomas Haden Church) and Best Supporting Actress (Virginia Madsen) in addition to winning Best Adapted Screenplay. Also nominated for Best Director that year was Scorsese for “The Aviator.” That movie won the most awards of the night for Best Supporting Actress (Cate Blanchett), Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Production Design. Like “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “The Aviator “starred Leonardo DiCaprio. But Payne and Scorsese both lost Best Director to Clint Eastwood (“Million Dollar Baby”).

SEERevisiting Alexander Payne’s 7 Oscar races in honor of ‘The Holdovers’

In 2011 Payne followed up “Sideways” with “The Descendants.” It received five Oscar noms for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (George Clooney), Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Film Editing. Once again Payne won Best Adapted Screenplay. Meanwhile, Scorsese was back in the race with “Hugo.” That movie tied with “The Artist” for the most wins of the night with accolades for Best Cinematography, Best Production Design, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing and Best Visual Effects. Again, Payne and Scorsese both lost Best Director, this time to Michel Hazanavicius (“The Artist”).

In 2013 Payne’s next film, “Nebraska,” received six bids for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (Bruce Dern), Best Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Best Original Screenplay and Best Cinematography. Meanwhile, Scorsese’s “The Wolf of Wall Street” had five noms for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actor (Jonah Hill) and Best Adapted Screenplay. Sadly, both movies ended up going home empty handed on Oscar night. Best Director went to Alfonso Cuaron (“Gravity”).

SEETelluride Film Festival: Alexander Payne scores critical praise in reunion with Paul Giamatti for ‘The Holdovers’

Going into this year’s Academy Awards, let’s take a look at how both of their latest films are currently expected to do. “Killers of the Flower Moon” is predicted to get in for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Lily Gladstone), Best Actor (DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actor (Robert De Niro), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing and Best Production Design, with multiple categories yet to be added to our predictions center. As of this writing the one award it’s tipped to win is Best Adapted Screenplay with 19/5 odds.

Meanwhile “The Holdovers” is predicted to get in for Best Picture, Best Actor (Giamatti), Best Supporting Actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing. The one award it’s currently favored to win is Best Supporting Actress with 9/2 odds. Payne currently isn’t expected to make the Best Director lineup at the moment. But every time he had a film nominated for Best Picture, he was also recognized for his directing. So if Payne gets in along with Scorsese for a fourth time, it would be quite a remarkable coincidence.

PREDICTthe 2024 Oscar nominations

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