Air Force veteran Zach Nunn wins 3rd District Republican primary; will challenge Rep. Cindy Axne

Zach Nunn, a state senator and U.S. Air Force veteran, has won the Republican nomination in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District. He will run against U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne in November.

The Associated Press declared Nunn the winner Tuesday night, easily besting his two Republican competitors in the primary election.

"Tonight, we thank our volunteers. We thank our team. Most importantly, we express our gratitude and appreciation to the voters of Iowa," Nunn said Tuesday night. "Tomorrow, all hellfire will break loose."

Nunn is a squadron commander in the Iowa Air National Guard. He served two combat tours in Afghanistan and another in Iraq. He's also a small business owner, and he has served in the state Senate since 2019.

Unofficial results from the Secretary of State's office on Wednesday show Nunn won the primary by a significant margin, collecting nearly 66% of Republican votes in the district. Financial services professional Nicole Hasso won 19% of the vote, and Republican activist Gary Leffler 15%.

Even so, Nunn said he's approaching the general election as the "underdog."

"We know immediately we're going to be in a challenger status," Nunn said. "But as a military guy, we have fought tougher missions than this. But maybe no more important mission than this: to serve our fellow Iowans and be their voice in Washington."

The newly redrawn 3rd District encompasses Polk, Dallas and other central Iowa counties, plus the bottom two tiers of counties along much of the state's southern border.

Nunn campaigns on Statehouse record, military service

Nunn was elected to represent Bondurant in the Iowa House of Representatives in 2014, then to the state Senate in 2018. He centered his primary campaign on both his military service and his service in state government, highlighting tax cuts, firearms legislation and "Back the Blue" bills passed during his tenure.

Election results: See Iowa primary election results across the state

Nunn was the only contender in the race with political experience.

Hasso entered politics in 2021, spurred by debates over parental oversight of public schools — she described herself as "a mom who's fired up and fed up." Longtime activist Leffler is a familiar face at party events, best known for his red, white and blue tractor. He has never held elected office.

But Nunn did not immediately pull away as the front-runner: Early fundraising reports showed him neck and neck with Hasso, who had the backing of U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and Axiom Strategies, a high-powered consulting firm.

Over the course of the primary, Nunn eventually outraised and outspent Hasso. Leffler never filed financial reports with the Federal Election Commission.

Leffler congratulated Nunn on a "good, competitive, fun race" on Tuesday night. As Leffler drives his patriotically themed tractor to events this summer, he plans to promote Nunn's campaign.

"If he doesn't have some signage for me to put on that trailer, I'm going to be extremely disappointed," Leffler said.

Hasso did not respond to multiple requests for comment. Her campaign Twitter account was deleted Wednesday afternoon.

Nunn's candidacy shifts race to favor Republicans

Tuesday's primary election sets the stage for what is expected to be a competitive race in November. Democrats hold the majority in the U.S. House by just five seats, and Iowa's 3rd District is likely to be a top target for Republican spending against Axne, a two-term incumbent.

Even before Tuesday's primary, Axne was rallying Democrats in the district, emphasizing the national stakes of the race.

“This one's going to be our toughest election yet," Axne told a crowd at an Ottumwa brewery earlier this year. "They're gunning for me.”

According to election forecasters, the race just got even tougher for Axne. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, two nonpartisan election forecasters, ranked the race as a "toss-up" between the major parties before Tuesday's election. After Nunn won the primary, both groups changed their predictions from "toss-up" to "leans R" — suggesting a Republican win is now more likely in the district.

"Nunn is most proven of potential R challengers and Axne holds a very narrow Trump district," Crystal Ball editor Kyle Kondik tweeted.

Nunn said the change represents "a seismic shift nationally" in favor of Republicans.

"We're going to run like we're 10 points down at all times. We're going to take nothing for chance," Nunn said. "But national headwinds are reflective in Iowa that people are ready for change, and we hope to be a champion for them going forward."

Axne said Wednesday that she was "not that surprised" by the change in forecast. Axne was reelected to her seat by less than 2 percentage points in 2020. She faces an even more challenging race this year, as Iowa lawmakers approved new district maps in the fall of 2021, and the 3rd District has several new, Republican-heavy counties.

"I'm surprised they didn't have it leaning Republican before that, since it truly is a Republican seat," Axne said.

The midterm election is traditionally tough on the incumbent party. A March Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found a dire situation for Democrats: President Joe Biden received a 59% disapproval rating among Iowa voters.

Axne acknowledged the "stressed out public" is dealing with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation and supply chain issues — problems for the incumbent party, even "if it wasn't something created by me or the administration."

"I'm just going to get out there and talk to folks about what I'm doing to at least be their voice in this and to make sure that we're moving agendas forward to … get back to a place in this country where people are feeling a little bit more sense of relief," Axne said. "I just got to get out there and articulate this message."

Brianne Pfannenstiel contributed reporting.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com or at 410-340-3440. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa primary results: Zach Nunn wins 3rd District GOP nomination