Will ‘Abbott Elementary’ finally expand in the supporting acting Emmy categories?

“Abbott Elementary” received the same three supporting acting Emmy nominations across its first two seasons: Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph for supporting actress and Tyler James Williams for supporting actor. The comedy is likely to pick up those three bids again for its third season this year, but will it score any beyond that? Also eligible are Lisa Ann Walter in supporting actress (eighth place in our combined odds), as well as Chris Perfetti (10th place) and William Stanford Davis (21st place) in supporting actor — and their categories may be open enough for them finally to break in.

Walter, Perfetti and Davis missing for Season 1 is not at all surprising. A word-of-mouth hit, “Abbott” already exceeded expectations with seven nominations in total, including for series, actress (Quinta Brunson), writing and casting. While our odds correctly forecasted the inclusions of Brunson, James and Ralph, they had Williams sitting all the way down in 20th place in supporting actor. Had Perfetti and Walter joined their co-stars as nominees, “Abbott” would have landed recognition for its entire regular cast — something first-season shows rarely accomplish at the Emmys as it usually takes voters at least one season to properly discover a show (note: Davis didn’t became a series regular until Season 2).

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That’s why we often see series explode in nominations for their second seasons following a successful debut installment. “Abbott” seemed primed to follow that trajectory after not only over-performing in noms but also raking in three crucial victories for Season 1, for writing, casting and supporting actress for Ralph, who was a surprise winner. While the ABC sitcom did increase its overall total to eight for Season 2, adding mentions for guest actress (Taraji P. Henson) and contemporary hairstyling, it didn’t enjoy the sophomore bump that fans of the show were anticipating. Not only was it unable to land bids for buzzy guest stars Leslie Odom Jr. and Ayo Edebiri, the former of whom was predicted to make the cut, but it was also AWOL in the editing and directing races once more and was dropped from writing.

Though none of Walter, Perfetti and Davis were predicted to get shortlisted, they, as original cast members, should have been able to benefit from “Abbott” being an established title. But in their defense, circumstances weren’t exactly optimal for them as the Emmys switched from an unlimited ballot back to a restricted one last year and both comedy supporting acting categories lost a slot after failing short of the submission threshold for eight.

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The restricted ballot will remain in place this year and there’s a good chance the comedy supporting acting categories will have just seven slots again (we won’t have official confirmation until Emmy ballots are released on June 13, the start of voting). So how is this year any different? For starters, both supporting acting categories have emptied out. In supporting actress, the only two returning nominees from last year are Ralph and James, who are currently in second and fifth places, respectively, in our odds. Similarly, in supporting actor, just two of last year’s seven contenders are eligible, reigning champ Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) and Williams, who are 1-2 in the odds.

What’s more, there appears to be renewed enthusiasm for “Abbott” following its 10-month hiatus. Delayed by last year’s Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA strikes, the show returned with a two-part premiere on Feb. 7, to another round of stellar reviews and a whole lotta online fanfare. Its later release date and reduced episode count — it will have 14 episodes in Season 3, as opposed to 22 in Season 2, and conclude on May 22 — have also allowed for all its buzz to be concentrated in what is essentially the heart of Emmy season. This can go a long way in boosting Walter, Perfetti and Davis, each of whom has had multiple standout moments in Season 3.

This also wouldn’t be the first time a show expanded in the acting categories for its third season after underperforming in them for its second. After scoring seven acting nominations and two wins, for lead actor Sterling K. Brown and guest star Gerald McRaney, for its breakout first season, “This Is Us” was also expected to blow up for its second installment. But not only did the NBC family drama fail to add bids for Season 2 MVPs Mandy Moore and Justin Hartley, who were comfortably in our predicted actress and supporting actor lineups, respectively, it dipped to “just” four acting noms overall, losing a mention for Chrissy Metz in supporting actress. So expectations weren’t exactly high for Season 3. The tearjerker, however, surprised everyone by shooting back up to seven bids, including first ones for Moore and fellow original cast member Chris Sullivan in supporting actor.

In hindsight, it’s an over-performance we should have probably seen coming. Despite taking a slight hit for its second season, “This Is Us” was still liked enough by voters to reap eight nominations altogether, including series, and pick up an acting victory, for Ron Cephas Jones in guest actor. It was likely just hurt by a competitive drama series field that, among other things, saw the return of 2015-16 series champ “Game of Thrones,” which was ineligible when “This Is Us” competed for its first season. So when the drama series categories cleared out the following year, with “This Is Us” and “Thrones” being the only returning program nominees, the former was able to reassert its dominance in the acting races. And because there were more openings than ever before, this allowed Moore and Sullivan, who had presumably come very close to snatching bids in prior years, to finally swoop in.

Obviously, “Abbott,” which has already won as many Emmys as “This Is Us” did throughout its entire six-season run and didn’t experience a dip in acting nominations for Season 2, is in a much stronger position than its network TV stablemate was for its third season. But similar to the drama, it kept itself in the game by taking home a major acting prize for Season 2, for Brunson in actress, and can now capitalize on a more wide-open field. For all we know, Walter, Perfetti and Davis could have just missed out in previous years. So if all it takes is a few extra vacancies in the acting races for them to finally sneak in, like it seemingly did for Moore and Sullivan, you shouldn’t be surprised if they school the supporting acting categories at long last this year.

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