75th Annual Emmys Predictions: Why This Year’s Awards May Be the Most Ridiculous Yet
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The post 75th Annual Emmys Predictions: Why This Year’s Awards May Be the Most Ridiculous Yet appeared first on Consequence.
All awards shows are ridiculous, but this year the Emmy Awards, the highest honors in television, have a particularly ridiculous sheen. Why is that? Well, there are numerous reasons, as we’ll get into below, but here’s the biggest one: The 75th Annual Emmy Awards were delayed until January 2024 because of the SAG-AFTRA strike. This means that the shows and performers which are being recognized tonight all come from an eligibility period that stretches from June 1st, 2022 to May 31st, 2023.
June 1st, 2022, let’s be honest, feels like a very long time ago. Like, for perspective, back then the U.S. Supreme Court still believed women had a constitutional right to bodily autonomy (which would end by the end of the month) and Elon Musk was still trying to weasel his way out of buying Twitter. (Also, Twitter was still called Twitter!) All as shows like The Bear, The Old Man, Obi-Wan Kenobi, and more were still airing.
Which is to say, it’s a weird year for the Emmys, and tonight’s awards may only make things weirder. Here’s a breakdown of the major categories — who we think will win, and who actually deserves it.
Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Succession (HBO)
Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Brian Cox, Succession
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Jeremy Strong, Succession
Should Win: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Will Win: Kieran Culkin, Succession
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: Beyond this being yet another face-off between Better Call Saul and Succession (where it’s hard to imagine Culkin losing, especially after already picking up the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award this month)… What is Brian Cox doing here? Yes, actors have discretion over what categories they’re submitted in, but looking back at Succession Season 4… Look, we have a Supporting Actor category for a reason!
Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Succession (HBO)
Sharon Horgan, Bad Sisters
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat
Sarah Snook, Succession
Should Win: Sarah Snook, Succession
Will Win: Sarah Snook, Succession
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: Sharon Horgan and Elisabeth Moss are nominated for shows that finished airing in October and November 2022, respectively. But in some respects, this is one of the more rational categories of the year, if only because the frontrunner is honestly the most deserving. All of these people turned in powerful performances — Bella Ramsey would be my second place finisher, and they should have at least one more shot at a win once The Last of Us Season 2 is complete.
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
The Bear (FX/Hulu)
Bill Hader, Barry
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Should Win: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Will Win: Jeremy Allen White, The Bear
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: That Calvin Klein ad came out months after the Emmy voting window closed… but one can only assume that the Emmys could sense it coming. Also, White is a rising star who can’t stop winning for his breakthrough work on the series. (Just another reminder — he’ll be winning for Season 1.)
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Wednesday (Netflix)
Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Should Win: Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Will Win: Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: So Poker Face is stretching the definition of “comedy series” just a bit here — it’s a light-in-tone murder mystery, similar in tone to Columbo, and when Peter Falk won four Emmys for playing Columbo, it was in the Drama category. Still, Lyonne was essential to the success of Poker Face, the secret sauce that held the series together, and it’d be glorious to see her take this prize. However, the Emmys often love an ingenue, and even though Wednesday premiered over a year ago, Jenna Ortega remains a buzzy talent in a show a lot of people watched. (If you’re wondering whether or not any of the controversy surrounding Scream VII might have an impact here, it won’t — Emmy voting closed on August 28th.)
Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie
Beef (Netflix)
Taron Egerton, Black Bird
Kumail Nanjiani, Welcome to Chippendale’s
Evan Peters, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Daniel Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story
Michael Shannon, George & Tammy
Steven Yeun, Beef
Should Win: Steven Yeun, Beef
Will Win: Steven Yeun, Beef
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: If Steven Yeun does win, a great actor will be winning for a great performance. But that doesn’t make it any less funny that he’s competing against the brilliant Michael Shannon for his transformation into George Jones (which Shannon found very challenging!), as well as Daniel Radcliffe for growing his own mustache for Weird: The Al Yankovic Story. And Radcliffe could be more of a contender in this category than expected, as Weird did win the Outstanding Television Movie award during the Creative Arts Emmys.
Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie
Swarm (Prime Video)
Lizzy Caplan, Fleishman Is In Trouble
Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy
Dominique Fishback, Swarm
Kathryn Hahn, Tiny Beautiful Things
Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six
Ali Wong, Beef
Should Win: Dominique Fishback, Swarm
Will Win: Ali Wong, Beef
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: In case it needs saying — Ali Wong also shone in Beef, and her winning will be well-deserved. But if you saw Swarm, you saw Dominique Fishback deliver one of 2023’s most legitimately fearless performances, and a win for her would be quite deserving.
Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series
Abbott Elementary (ABC)
Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Phil Dunster, Ted Lasso
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
James Marsden, Jury Duty
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Should Win: Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Will Win: Henry Winkler, Barry. Or one of the Ted Lasso guys. Whatever.
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: Do you people know how hard it is to play a character who is both an awkward goof and a compelling romantic lead? Even John Krasinski, at the height of his powers on The Office, didn’t come close to the way that Tyler James Williams tackled Gregory’s journey in Abbott Elementary Season 2.
Henry Winkler is a good man who deserves good things, though, so if he gets one final Emmy for taking Gene Cousineau down some incredibly dark alleys in the final season of Barry, then there’ll be no reason to start a riot. Both Phil Dunster and Brett Goldstein were solid in the final season of Ted Lasso, as well. (The show shoulda ended with them in a throuple with Keeley, but that’s not an issue the Emmys need to address.)
Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso
Jessica Williams, Shrinking
Should Win: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Will Win: Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso or Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: Ayo Edebiri, should she win, will be incredibly deserving. However, it seems safe to suggest here that the Emmys will fall into their usual pattern of embracing past winners as opposed to recognizing a new talent. Yes, this is the opposite of the logic used for considering the Lead Actress in a Comedy category above, but the difference here is that none of those nominees except Rachel Brosnahan have ever won before, and while Mrs. Maisel ended strong, it might not have been strong enough to get the Emmys’ attention.
Supporting Actor In A Drama Series
Succession (HBO)
F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus
Nicholas Braun, Succession
Michael Imperioli, The White Lotus
Theo James, The White Lotus
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Alan Ruck, Succession
Will Sharpe, The White Lotus
Alexander Skarsgård, Succession
Should Win: Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Will Win: Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: God, looking at this category is like the height of existential despair. Like, does it matter? Does any of this matter? One supporting actor from an acclaimed HBO drama is going to win. Odds are very good it’s gonna be a white dude. Going with Matthew Macfadyen here just because of all the actors on Succession, he was walking the highest of tightropes with Tom’s journey and stuck the landing in a way essential to the show’s overall success.
Supporting Actress In A Drama Series
Better Call Saul (AMC)
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Meghann Fahy, The White Lotus
Sabrina Impacciatore, The White Lotus
Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Simona Tabasco, The White Lotus
Should Win: Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: So finally, finally Rhea Seehorn is nominated for a second time for her iconic work on Better Call Saul, and even better — unlike last time, she’s not competing against Sarah Snook! It’d be so sweet if Saul could win even one Primetime Emmy Award before officially ending its awards season run tonight, and even sweeter if it were for Seehorn’s work. But the bad news is that Seehorn’s still competing with another past winner, and that past winner is nominated for, amongst other things, saying this line of dialogue. Seehorn’s chances here feel better than they would if she was up against Snook. But that’s not saying a lot.
Supporting Actor In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
Black Bird (Apple TV+)
Murray Bartlett, Welcome To Chippendales
Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
Richard Jenkins, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Joseph Lee, Beef
Ray Liotta, Black Bird
Young Mazino, Beef
Jesse Plemons,Love & Death
Should Win: Murray Bartlett, Welcome To Chippendales
Will Win: Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: Not many people watched Apple TV+’s Black Bird (or if they did, they forgot, because its final episode debuted in August 2022). However, it’s still been picking up a fair amount of attention during its awards season run, both for Ray Liotta’s posthumous performance as well as Paul Walter Hauser’s acclaimed work. Murray Bartlett was legitimately devastating in Welcome To Chippendales, though — congrats to him on three Emmy nominations and one win, just in the last two years.
Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie
Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix)
Annaleigh Ashford, Welcome To Chippendales
Maria Bello, Beef
Juliette Lewis, Welcome to Chippendales
Camila Morrone, Daisy Jones & the Six
Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Merritt Wever, Tiny Beautiful Things
Should Win: Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Will Win: Niecy Nash-Betts, Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: Niecy Nash-Betts was perhaps the best thing about Dahmer, so as much as some of these other performances stood out, a win for would be well-deserved. What makes this one ridiculous is how many times the announcers tonight are gonna have to say “Dahmer.” If we’re trying to avoid creating a culture that glamorizes serial killers, maybe don’t put the dude’s name in the title TWICE?
Limited Series
Beef (Netflix)
Beef
Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Daisy Jones & the Six
Fleishman Is in Trouble
Obi-Wan Kenobi
Should Win: Fleishman Is in Trouble
Will Win: Beef
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: To be clear, Beef is top-tier television and it winning here wouldn’t be a disappointment. But it’s a bit sad to see the FX adaptation of Taffy Brodesser-Akner’s novel not get more attention for its sweet, sad, and existential take on life.
Comedy Series
Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)
Abbott Elementary
Barry
The Bear
Jury Duty
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
Wednesday
Should Win: The Bear
Will Win: Ted Lasso
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: So the best show in the mix — The Bear — is terrific, but it’s barely an actual comedy. Meanwhile, Ted Lasso Season 3 had the least positive reviews of the series to date, but Emmy voters are creatures of habit. That said, while Ted Lasso is the official prediction here, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is also a former winner that had a strong final season… There could be a surprise here? But betting on surprises at the Emmys rarely pans out.
Drama Series
Succession (HBO)
Andor
Better Call Saul
The Crown
House of the Dragon
The Last of Us
Succession
The White Lotus
Yellowjackets
Should Win: Better Call Saul
Will Win: Succession
Why It’s Ridiculous This Year: Succession is one of the definitive TV shows of the 21st century, but it’s already won twice in this category, and it’s competing against one of the other all-time greats here. This is Better Call Saul’s very last chance to be recognized. It’s probably not going to win. It’s what happens. But of all the ridiculous things that may happen on Monday night… Better Call Saul losing will be top of the list.
The 75th annual Primetime Emmy Awards air Monday, January 15th at 5:00 p.m. PT/8:00 p.m. ET on Fox. Anthony Anderson serves as host.
75th Annual Emmys Predictions: Why This Year’s Awards May Be the Most Ridiculous Yet
Liz Shannon Miller
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