College Basketball expert Jon Rothstein gives you his top 5 teams that will forever be left wondering "what could've been" with the 2020 NCAA Tournament being canceled.
The Explorer: Before the virus, the race came down to one general question: Do you hate President Trump or like positive results? If you hate Trump, you vote Biden. If you think the economy (and most economic numbers have been good for most people) and foreign policy have gone pretty well, you'll vote the incumbent. Now it's an entirely different animal: Who is better suited to "lead" a recovery? That's probably the battle that former Vice-President Biden faces. Most people believe the Trump economy was better than the Obama economy--and most numbers tend to bear that out, in real stats and general sentiment--so as the VP of an administration that didn't grade poorly, but didn't grade as well as the current administration on the economy, it might be a difficult sell to suggest Biden is better suited to guide a recovery than Trump. Mr. Newman ran a column last week quoting some polling outfit about the potential electoral college swing. In his piece (which granted, is utter nonsense space fill because he's employed to do something at a time when the virus has upended everything and made predictions useless given uncertainty on where this is going) he broke poll numbers into safe Trump, safe Biden, toss-ups. Taking his story, he had Pennsylvania and Arizona as toss-ups, and other close states leaning in various directions. Even using historical elements as a baseline: Pennsylvania has voted democrat in most recent elections; Arizona has voted Democrat (Clinton in 94) once since World War II (so you put Pennsylvania in the Democrat column and Arizona in the GOP), Trump still wins 270 electoral votes and therefore the election by the slimmest of margins. So even Newman, who endlessly engages in armchair crisis commentary and reiterates his belief that Trump botched the handling of COVID in the early stages--even when those allegations have nothing to do with his analysis--wrote a column that says Trump will win, without bothering to analyze the numbers he believed suggested he wouldn't. A lot of things can obviously happen. We don't know when the economy reopens; we don't know how long companies will take to rehire; we don't know how bad their numbers will be and how long that will last; we don't know if there will be a second wave that cripples health and economic output in addition to the onset of the normal flu season. We know Trump will say dumb things and Biden will flub. But if things seem relatively "normal," and the mortality numbers on this come in well below the quarter million models the media floated a few weeks ago--Newman himself wrote a column proclaiming some "not worst case models" had death rates lingering around a half million--it is Trump, whether accurate or not, who will get the credit for that, and that would seem to benefit his reelection chances.