5 reasons why ‘Oppenheimer’ will win best ensemble prize at SAG Awards

Tariq Khan
·5 min read
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Last awards season, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” won almost everything at the 29th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. Its four victories were for actress Michelle Yeoh, supporting actress Jamie Lee Curtis, supporting actor Ke Huy Quan and best ensemble cast. While the scope of the sweep surprised many, the film’s triumph in the top category was widely expected. (“Everything” enjoyed a huge lead in Gold Derby’s official odds, with “The Banshees of Inisherin” an extremely distant second.)

This year, it doesn’t appear likely that any film will match the unprecedented SAG Awards feat achieved by “Everything.” However, I do think that current Gold Derby frontrunner “Oppenheimer” will maintain its lead, and ultimately will win the guild’s prestigious best ensemble prize. Here are five reasons why.

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1. It boasts a cast filled with heavyweights.
In addition to the title role portrayed by Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer” features a roster of highly respected industry talent. That includes previous SAG Award champions Robert Downey Jr. (TV’s “Ally McBeal”), Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”), Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) and Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody.”) That also means past film contenders Matt Damon (“Good Will Hunting, “Invictus”), Kenneth Branagh (“Othello,” “My Week with Marilyn”) and Casey Affleck (“The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford,” “Manchester by the Sea”). Throw in a few more previous Oscar nominees like Florence Pugh (“Little Women”) and Tom Conti (“Reuben, Reuben”) plus countless other familiar faces such as Alden Ehrenreich, Jason Clarke, Dane DeHaan, Tony Goldwyn, Josh Hartnett, Matthew Modine, Jack Quaid, Benny Safdie and Alex Wolff, and you don’t need to be a rocket scientist to see why this cast should soar at SAG.

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2. The acting is superb.
No matter how talented a cast is, it’s irrelevant if the writing and directing are subpar. (Did someone say “Babylon”?) Fortunately for the thespians of “Oppenheimer,” they’re gifted with marvelous dialogue and stellar direction from mastermind Christopher Nolan. Every scene is perfectly crafted. Every character is three-dimensionsal and eerily believable. And the chemistry between the assorted actors is simply exhilarating. Murphy, Downey and Blunt are all heavily favored to receive individual SAG (not to mention Oscar) nominations themselves. Even if they lose their SAG races, they should still be prepared to accept the group statuette as part of the outstanding “Oppenheimer” ensemble.

3. The film is a triple threat in the SAG contest.
There are three key factors which will greatly benefit “Oppenheimer” at the guild. First of all, it’s a box office smash. Its domestic gross is over $300 million and counting. That means that the overwhelming majority of SAG-AFTRA cardholders have seen the film, or will have seen it by the time voting rolls around next winter. Next, the film is a critical success with a splendid 93% “Certified Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes. SAG voters are smart. They know a quality movie when they see one, and it’s quality that they wish to reward. Finally, “Oppenheimer” is a genuine crowd pleaser with a healthy 91% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes. SAG voters aren’t critics. They like to enjoy watching films, not just admire them. And they’re far more likely to vote for one that they like than they simply admire. To sum it up, “Oppenheimer” is a picture that will be seen, respected and savored by voting members.

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4. It resembles many recent film ensemble recipients.
2010’s “The King’s Speech.” 2012’s “Argo.” 2015’s “Spotlight.” 2016’s “Hidden Figures.” 2020’s “The Trial of the Chicago 7.” Historical and/or biographical dramas have done exceptionally well in SAG’s best cast sweepstakes. While we don’t even know which other films will land in the lineup, the guild’s history suggests that “Oppenheimer” will be the one to beat. This leads me to my fifth and final point.

5. It will be difficult for anything to beat it.
I’ll focus on the two films right behind “Oppenheimer” in the Gold Derby SAG odds. “Killers of the Flower Moon” actually mirrors “Oppenheimer” in many ways. One might think that the combination of legends Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro in a Martin Scorsese project should be enough to do the trick. But while DiCaprio did claim SAG’s Best Actor for 2015’s “The Revenant” and De Niro had a small role in 2013’s Best Cast “American Hustle,” they and Scorsese all have fairly poor track records in the bst cast category. Consider some of the also-rans associated with at least one of them. 1996’s “Marvin’s Room.” 1997’s “Titanic.” 2004’s “The Aviator.” 2006’s “The Departed.” 2012’s “Silver Linings Playbook.” 2019’s “The Irishman” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” 2021’s “Don’t Look Up.” Looking st the trio’s track record, “Killers” doesn’t seem likely to slay the SAG electorate. And then there’s “Barbie.” Yes, it’s arguably the most talked about movie of the year. And no, no one can resist the charms of Margot Robbie, Ryan Gosling, America Ferrera, Kate McKinnon, Issa Rae and Will Ferrell. Nonetheless, “Barbie” will probably seem too plastic to overcome the gravitas of “Oppenheimer.” So expect “Barbie” to bomb and “Oppenheimer” to explode when the SAG Awards salute the best ensemble of the year.

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