5 reasons why Colin Farrell (‘The Banshees of Inisherin’) will pull off the biggest Best Actor Oscar upset in 2 decades

Twenty years ago, the road to the Best Actor Oscar took a most unexpected turn. For most of the season, the race was seen as being between Jack Nicholson in “About Schmidt” and Daniel Day-Lewis in “Gangs of New York.” Nicholson appeared to have the early lead when he claimed the Golden Globe, then Day-Lewis jumped ahead when he nabbed the SAG Award.

And then came the Oscar shocker. Halle Berry opened the envelope and announced Adrien Brody in “The Pianist” the winner. Nobody was more surprised than Brody himself, who moments later admitted that he had stopped preparing acceptance speeches after losing at all of the previous ceremonies.

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We haven’t had a Best Actor shocker like that since then. But hold onto your hats, folks. The awards gods are about to mark the 20-year Brody Oscar anniversary with another genuine jaw-dropper. Here are five reasons why Colin Farrell will win the Best Actor Oscar for “The Banshees of Inisherin.” And yes, I’m feckin’ serious.

SEEColin Farrell (‘The Banshees of Inisherin’): ‘I’m pinching myself’ over Oscar nomination [Complete Interview Transcript]

1. We’re looking at a serious case of vote-splitting between the two front-runners.
I think it’s fair to say that most see this as a contest between Austin Butler in “Elvis” and Brendan Fraser in “The Whale.” Butler is remarkably transformed into 20th century musical icon Elvis Presley. He looks, sounds and sings just like the King. It’s a show-stopping performance in the same tradition as other recent Oscar recipients like Rami Malek in “Bohemian Rhapsody” and Renée Zellweger in “Judy.” Meanwhile, Fraser undergoes an even more astonishing transformation to play the role of a sad, lonely and morbidly obese man. It might be compared to the Oscar-winning turns by Matthew McConaughey in “Dallas Buyers Club” and Charlize Theron in “Monster.” Butler has the Golden Globe (Drama) and BAFTA prizes to his name, while Fraser has Critics’ Choice and SAG statuettes in his possession. Butler does have the strong advantage of being in a Best Picture vehicle. But Fraser’s comeback narrative might be considered equally important. It feels like a draw. And with votes almost evenly splitting between choice A (as in Austin) and choice B (as in Brendan) – we have to be wary of choice C (as in Colin) sneaking in and stealing the cake.

2. Farrell delivers a superb dramatic performance.
No, his material isn’t classic awards bait like that of his main competitors. He’s not playing a real person. He isn’t rendered unrecognizable through heavy makeup, prosthetics or costumes. (At least, not in “Banshees.” “The Batman” is a different story.) He’s seemingly playing an ordinary Irishman. But Farrell’s handling of his part is actually quite extraordinary. He projects complexity, emotion and humanity without forcing it or faking it. He shows us a tortured soul in a surprisingly honest and refreshing fashion. One might argue that his character has a richer arc than those portrayed by his rivals. To say that Farrell’s understated acting might be an attractive alternative to Academy voters would be the ultimate understatement. Just two years ago, Frances McDormand’s seemingly simple scene work in “Nomadland” prevailed over the theatrics of her much flashier challengers. Farrell could be this year’s Frances.

SEEHow to watch ‘The Banshees of Inisherin’ online

3. “The Banshees of Inisherin” is a popular and potent Best Picture contender.
“Banshees” impressively scored nine Oscar nominations, including both Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for Martin McDonagh. It landed four acting nods just like “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” It has performed quite strongly this awards season, even overcoming “Everything” at the Golden Globes. That support for “Banshees” almost everywhere undoubtedly aids Farrell in the Best Actor balloting, as he’s riding the sturdiest vehicle. If voters wish to reward the picture in a major category, what better way to go than with Farrell – the very face of the film? You might argue that Butler also appears in a Best Picture nominee. However, his “Elvis” missed both Director and Screenplay, and has no other acting bids. “Elvis” can also be rewarded in several technical categories. Options for “Inisherin” are considerably more limited. In short, Farrell could get a major “Banshees” boost.

4. The Academy sometimes likes to surprise us.
It’s become all too common in recent years for actors to sweep the acting sweepstakes. After accepting the Golden Globe, they practically sleepwalk through the rest of the awards season. By the time the Oscars roll around, there’s virtually no suspense. Based on my own conversations with Academy members, I can reveal their disappointment when they feel like they’re just rubber-stamping choices made by other organizations. So in a rare case like this where Oscar voters can actually throw us a curveball, they might decide to swing in a different direction.

SEEBest Actor Oscar: Why Brendan Fraser is the new Matthew McConaughey

5. Yes, I’ve been aggressively polling Academy members. And yes, I’m hearing LOTS of votes for Farrell.
I spent the better part of January and February surveying SAG-AFTRA members, trying to make accurate predictions in key contests. If you read my explanations on Gold Derby, you know that my tally showed “Everything Everywhere All at Once” receiving about 75% of the votes cast in the Best Cast category. You also know that I reported hearing TWICE as many votes for Michelle Yeoh as for Cate Blanchett. And you may recall that I was notably unearthing a groundswell of support for Jamie Lee Curtis. I even wrote an article in February titled “Five reasons why JLC could pull off a SAG Awards shocker.” My SAG polling was a key factor in making that prediction. Few people took my survey seriously. (Kudos to Gold Derby President and Founder and my longtime mentor Tom O’Neil for being the only other expert/editor to go out on that limb with me.)

Now that the SAG Awards are history, I’ve quickly shifted my focus to consulting my various Academy contacts (most of them based in New York City.) The first question that I ask is whether they’re going with Butler or Fraser. And I keep being flabbergasted when so many of them say Farrell. Don’t get me wrong, I’m definitely hearing solid support for both Butler and Fraser. But both “Elvis” and “The Whale” appear to be somewhat polarizing pictures, whereas “Banshees” has a broader band of admirers. I also get the sense that few voters seem married to the idea of giving newcomer Butler or comeback kid Fraser an Oscar. For many of them, Farrell is simply their favorite. I want to emphasize that I’m making no guarantees here. I don’t expect anyone to believe me. And I don’t want anyone to copy me. But I do hope that you’ll remember me when presumed Best Actor presenter Jessica Chastain opens the envelope and calls Colin Farrell 2022’s Best Actor – giving us the biggest and best Best Actor jolt since the turn of the century.

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