3rd time’s the charm for Carey Mulligan (‘Maestro’)? She rises sharply in Oscar odds for Best Actress

On August 15 Netflix debuted a teaser and first-look images for its biographical film “Maestro,” and while much of the discourse has been around Bradley Cooper and the decision to fit him with a prosthetic nose to play Jewish composer Leonard Bernstein, let’s not forget about his co-star Carey Mulligan, who plays his wife Felicia Montealegre. She’s just as prominent as he is in the teaser, where she’s actually credited before him, and she’s the one pictured from behind on the poster. Could this be her ticket to the Best Actress Oscar on her third try? Scroll down to see our graph illustrating her trajectory in the race.

As recently as August 16, Mulligan ranked eighth in the Best Actress race according to the combined predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users. By August 24 she was in sixth place and rapidly closing in on the top five. According to the Gold Derby Editors who cover awards year-round, Mulligan is already in the top three, behind only Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”) and Greta Lee (“Past Lives”). If she does make the cut it would be her third bid in the category, following “An Education” (2009) and “Promising Young Woman” (2020).

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SEERay Richmond: Bradley Cooper has a nose for controversy as Leonard Bernstein in ‘Maestro’

The “Long-Suffering Wife” has been a common trope in Oscar performances. We’ve seen actors like Jennifer Connelly (“A Beautiful Mind”), Marcia Gay Harden (“Pollock”), and Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line”) win for playing the partners of famous men. The trope can be a double-edged sword as it points to a long history of female characters being reduced to who their husbands or boyfriends are. Glenn Close‘s Best Actress-nominated performance in “The Wife” even comments on that phenomenon.

Of course, not everyone who plays a wife is just the wife. It’s possible for female love interest roles to be just as dynamic and fully-realized as their male counterparts. We’ll have to see when “Maestro” is screened for critics and audiences how robust a role Mulligan plays. Either way, playing the spouse of an artist is genius is typically a good position for an actor to be in at these awards, and Mulligan has an Oscar IOU she can cash in as well.

SEEBradley Cooper’s ‘Maestro’ added to the New York Film Festival lineup as spotlight gala screening

Her “Promising Young Woman” nomination just three years ago came in one of the most divided Best Actress contests in recent history, with a different person winning at almost every event. Mulligan took Critics Choice, Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”) won the Golden Globe, Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) claimed the SAG Award, and Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) took home the BAFTA, with McDormand ultimately winning the Oscar.

Besides McDormand, Mulligan was the only nominee in that lineup whose film was also nominated for Best Picture, so it’s plausible that Mulligan was the runner-up in the Best Actress race. And Oscar voters often like to make it up to you after one or two close calls. Consider the aforementioned Viola Davis winning for “Fences” after losing for “The Help,” or Nicole Kidman prevailing for “The Hours” the year after her nom for “Moulin Rouge.” Most recently Jessica Chastain won Best Actress for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” after coming close in that category almost a decade earlier for “Zero Dark Thirty.” So the academy might be similarly eager to engrave Mulligan’s name on a trophy.

PREDICTthe 2024 Oscar nominations

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