2024 Tony predictions by show: ‘Cabaret,’ ‘Hell’s Kitchen,’ ‘Stereophonic’ will lead nominations
A new musical, a musical revival and a new play with music will dominate the 2024 Tony Awards nominations, according to our official odds in 17 of the 26 categories. The latest revival of the classic John Kander and Fred Ebb musical “Cabaret,” fresh off a smash run on the West End, and the new musical “Hell’s Kitchen” that is loosely based on the life of Alicia Keys and her music will both net at least seven nominations. New works “Days of Wine and Roses,” “Here Lies Love” and “Suffs” and the starry revival of Stephen Sondheim‘s notorious flop “Merrily We Roll Along” will also earn substantial nominations tallies.
Playwright David Adjmi‘s “Stereophonic” will lead this year’s crop of plays and play revivals with at least five nominations. Right behind are five other works – two new shows and three revivals – that will all tie at least four nominations apiece, including original works “Mother Play” and “Patriots” and remountings of “An Enemy of the People,” “Appropriate” and “Purlie Victorious.”
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These official odds for the 77th Tonys are derived from the predictions of our Experts, Editors, Top 24 Users, All-Star Top 24 and all our Users, who make up the largest and often savviest bloc of predictors.
Below, we break down the predicted nominees by show, ranked by the number of nominations and then alphabetically. Make or edit your own predictions before the nominations are unveiled on Tuesday, April 30.
MUSICALS
Cabaret
Best Musical Revival — 16/5
Best Actress (Gayle Rankin) — 11/2
Best Actor (Eddie Redmayne) — 9/2
Best Featured Actress (Bebe Neuwirth) — 4/1
Best Featured Actor (Steven Skybell) — 11/2
Best Director (Rebecca Frecknall) — 11/2
Best Choreography — 5/1
Hell’s Kitchen
Best Musical — 6/1
Best Actress (Maleah Joi Moon) — 6/1
Best Featured Actress (Kecia Lewis) — 13/2
Best Featured Actress (Shoshana Bean) — 21/2
Best Featured Actor (Brandon Victor Dixon) — 19/2
Best Musical Book — 6/1
Best Choreography — 6/1
Days of Wine and Roses
Best Musical — 19/2
Best Actress (Kelli O’Hara) — 18/5
Best Actor (Brian d’Arcy James) — 9/2
Best Original Score — 9/2
Best Musical Book — 6/1
Here Lies Love
Best Musical — 6/1
Best Featured Actor (Conrad Ricamora) — 5/1
Best Director (Alex Timbers) — 5/1
Best Original Score — 4/1
Best Musical Book — 17/2
Merrily We Roll Along
Best Musical Revival — 9/4
Best Actor (Jonathan Groff) — 16/5
Best Featured Actress (Lindsay Mendez) — 17/5
Best Featured Actor (Daniel Radcliffe) — 31/10
Best Director (Maria Friedman) — 3/1
Suffs
Best Musical — 19/5
Best Actress (Shaina Taub) — 8/1
Best Director (Leigh Silverman) — 7/1
Best Original Score — 4/1
Best Musical Book — 7/2
Illinoise
Best Musical — 5/1
Best Director (Justin Peck) — 9/1
Best Choreography — 9/2
The Who’s Tommy
Best Musical Revival — 9/2
Best Actor (Ali Louis Bourzgui) — 21/1
Best Choreography — 9/2
Gutenberg! The Musical!
Best Musical Revival — 9/2
Harmony
Best Actor (Chip Zien) — 6/1
Monty Python’s Spamalot
Best Featured Actress (Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer) — 6/1
Lempicka
Best Actress (Eden Espinosa) — 11/2
The Notebook
Best Musical Book — 9/1
The Outsiders
Best Original Score — 19/2
The Wiz
Best Choreography — 7/1
Water for Elephants
Best Featured Actor (Paul Alexander Nolan) — 9/1
SEE Tony Talk: How many of the ‘Stereophonic’ cast will be nominated?
PLAYS
Stereophonic
Best Play — 7/2
Best Featured Actress (Sarah Pidgeon) — 13/2
Best Featured Actor (Will Brill) — 11/1
Best Director (Daniel Aukin) — 5/1
Best Original Score — 17/2
An Enemy of the People
Best Play Revival — 5/1
Best Actor (Jeremy Strong) — 37/10
Best Featured Actor (Michael Imperioli) — 15/2
Best Director (Sam Gold) — 17/2
Appropriate
Best Play Revival — 7/5
Best Actress (Sarah Paulson) — 51/20
Best Featured Actor (Corey Stoll) — 5/1
Best Director (Lila Neugebauer) — 19/5
Mother Play
Best Play — 5/1
Best Actress (Jessica Lange) — 16/5
Best Featured Actress (Celia Keenan-Bolger) – 9/2
Best Featured Actor (Jim Parsons) — 11/2
Patriots
Best Play — 5/1
Best Actor (Michael Stuhlbarg) — 69/20
Best Featured Actor (Will Keen) — 19/5
Best Director (Rupert Goold) — 6/1
Purlie Victorious
Best Play Revival — 29/10
Best Actor (Leslie Odom Jr.) — 29/10
Best Featured Actress (Kara Young) — 82/25
Best Director (Kenny Leon) — 4/1
Doubt
Best Actress (Amy Ryan) — 4/1
Best Actor (Liev Schreiber) — 15/2
Prayer for the French Republic
Best Play — 9/2
Best Featured Actress (Francis Benhamou) — 11/2
Uncle Vanya
Best Actor (Steve Carell) — 6/1
Best Featured Actress (Jayne Houdyshell) — 21/2
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Best Play — 6/1
Mary Jane
Best Actress (Rachel McAdams) — 4/1
PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30
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