2024 Tony Awards nominations predictions: Big tallies for musicals ‘Lempicka,’ ‘The Notebook,’ ‘Cabaret’ …

David Buchanan
·5 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

In the two weeks since Gold Derby launched the 2024 Tony Awards nominations predictions center, over 600 users have made their preliminary picks for which shows, performers and creatives will land coveted nominations. This season, 20 musicals and musical revivals will compete for only a handful of slots in each category, making this one of the most competitive seasons in recent memory. Scroll to the bottom of the article for a tally of nominations by show in 10 of the 15 musical categories based on our current combined odds.

In the top category of Best Musical, our savvy users predict three shows are out front: “Suffs,” with music and lyrics by Shaina Taub, “The Notebook,” with score by Ingrid Michaelson and “Here Lies Love,” featuring a score by David Byrne and Fatboy Slim. Rounding out our current top five are “Days of Wine and Roses” by Tony-winning composer Adam Guettel and the incoming “Lempicka,” directed by Tony winner Rachel Chavkin. Many of the 14 eligible shows have not yet opened, though, including “Hell’s Kitchen,” “The Great Gatsby,” “The Outsiders,” “Water for Elephants” and “The Heart of Rock and Roll,” so this race will continue to be in flux throughout the spring. The other eligible musicals are “Back to the Future: The Musical,” “How to Dance in Ohio,” “Harmony” and “Once Upon a One More Time.”

More from GoldDerby

The competition for Best Musical Revival, on the other hand, is shaping up to be a two-contender race with the smash return of Stephen Sondheim’s notorious flop “Merrily We Roll Along” and the transfer of the immerse West End production of John Kander and Fred Ebb’s “Cabaret” vying for the number one slot. In third place is the successful two-hander “Gutenberg! The Musical!,” while that fourth and final position is currently a toss-up amongst “The Who’s Tommy,” “The Wiz” and “Monty Python’s Spamalot.” Over half our users give the edge to “The Who’s Tommy” right now.

SEE 2024 Tony Awards could feature the most women directing nominees in history

The musical acting categories are a true embarrassment of riches this year. Our users look fairly confident on four of the five slots for Best Actress, predicting Eden Espinosa in “Lempicka,” Gayle Rankin in “Cabaret,” Kelli O’Hara in “Days of Wine and Roses” and Joy Woods in “The Notebook.” While no one contender is a lock in such a competitive environment, the last position looks to be a tough race between Arielle Jacobs of “Here Lies Love,” Shaina Taub of “Suffs,” Eva Noblezada of “The Great Gatsby,” Maleah Joi Moon of “Hell’s Kitchen” and Nichelle Lewis of “The Wiz.”

Jonathan Groff (“Merrily We Roll Along”) and Eddie Redmayne (“Cabaret”) are the two most likely nominees for Best Actor, and our users give the two-time nominee Groff an advantage for the win. The other three slots look likely to go to four-time nominee Brian d’Arcy James of “Days of Wine and Roses,” Broadway legend Chip Zien of “Harmony” and Ryan Vazquez for “The Notebook,” but watch out for Jeremy Jordan (“The Great Gatsby”) and Ali Louis Bourzgui (“The Who’s Tommy”).

Featured performers Lindsay Mendez and Daniel Radcliffe, both of “Merrily We Roll Along,” are way out front in their respective categories. The other top featured actress contenders per our earliest users are Bebe Neuwirth (“Cabaret”), Leslie Rodriquez Kritzer (“Monty Python’s Spamalot”), Maryann Plunkett (“The Notebook”) and Beth Leavel (“Lempicka”) with potential nominees Shoshana Bean (“Hell’s Kitchen”) and Jennifer Simard (“Once Upon a One More Time”). The other four likeliest nominees for featured actor are Conrad Ricamora (“Here Lies Love”), Paul Alexander Nolan (“Water for Elephants”), Andrew Samonsky (“Lempicka”) and Roger Bart (“Back to the Future: The Musical”) with Steven Skybell (“Cabaret”), Liam Pearce (“How to Dance in Ohio”), Noah J. Ricketts (“The Great Gatsby”) and Brandon Victor Dixon (“Hell’s Kitchen”) all in the race according to our first 600 prognosticators.

SEE ‘Merrily We Roll Along’ reviews: ‘Exquisite’ Sondheim revival stars Jonathan Groff, Lindsay Mendez, Daniel Radcliffe

See our official odds for our current top five contenders in the categories of Best Director, Original Score, Book and Choreography. Remember, the tally of total nominations by show below does not include the five categories of Orchestrations, Scenic Design, Costume Design, Lighting Design and Sound Design. Make your own predictions now and update them through the morning of April 30, when Tony nominations will be announced.

Nominations Predictions

Lempicka — 7
The Notebook — 7
Cabaret — 6
Here Lies Love — 5
Merrily We Roll Along — 5
Days of Wine and Roses — 4
Suffs — 3
The Who’s Tommy — 2
Hell’s Kitchen — 2
Back to the Future: The Musical — 1
Gutenberg! The Musical! — 1
Harmony — 1
Once Upon a One More Time — 1
Spamalot — 1
The Outsiders — 1
The Wiz — 1
Water for Elephants — 1

PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest prediction

Best of GoldDerby

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.