2024 SAG Awards mystery: How many shocking TV winners will there be?

Christopher Tsang
·5 min read
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After what has been an incredibly predictable awards season for television in the last month with all the previous ceremonies (Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Emmy Awards) checking “Succession,” “The Bear” and “Beef” down the line, it would make sense to presume that the Screen Actors Guild Awards this weekend will just follow the herd and honor the same champs. But lest we forget, we have seen time and time again where SAG-AFTRA does their own thing and sometimes yields surprising results, stopping some actors and shows in their tracks that have been on a roll. Read below for some recent shocking TV winners at the SAG Awards and what it could mean this year.

Beginning with last year’s ceremony, the two limited series/television movie acting winners were way off course of who was expected to triumph. For best actress, Amanda Seyfried was sweeping all the televised awards for “The Dropout” and was expected to complete the run with SAG, but Jessica Chastain pulled off a shocker, claiming victory for “George and Tammy.” Over on the male side, it was even more bizarre as Sam Elliott was not nominated anywhere else for “1883” and was competing with frontrunners Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) who won the Globe, and “Black Bird” actors Taron Egerton and Paul Walter Hauser. But he was able to win in a massive upset, showing that the actors can go their own way, no matter how obscure.

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These surprise wins that come out of nowhere happen at the SAG Awards more often than one would think, with recent examples being Claire Foy shocking in 2018 for the second installment of “The Crown” during the sweep of Elisabeth Moss for the first season of “The Handmaid’s Tale,” and Kevin Spacey nabbing a second win for “House of Cards” in 2016 over Jon Hamm for the final goodbye of “Mad Men” or Rami Malek for the debut on “Mr. Robot.” Over in the limited races, actors can triumph at SAG without winning any of the other awards preceding them like Sam Rockwell (“Fosse/Verdon”), Mark Ruffalo (“The Normal Heart”) and Bryan Cranston (“All The Way”).

SEEExperts slugfest: 2023 Emmys recap — ‘Succession,’ ‘The Bear’ and ‘Beef’ rule and feel like déjà vu

So while it may feel safe to put all bets on “Succession,” “The Bear” and “Beef” winning their respective SAG categories – with good reason given they all are the hottest, popular television shows of the last year – it should be reminded that the guild tends to sometimes skew toward some outliers. Last year, many believed “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” would do well with even Emmy winner Niecy Nash-Betts potentially upsetting Seyfried, but it got shut out, and history may repeat itself for “Beef,” also a Netflix commodity, especially given that David Oyelowo is up for “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” in best actor – a series similar to “1883” that was also created by Taylor Sheridan and has done better at the other awards.

And even though “Succession” may seem on track to nab its second ensemble prize victory, it has never able to take home any individual acting trophies. The same lineups occur this year (three male actors and one female actor), with both categories facing some heavy performers from buzzed series like Pedro Pascal (“The Last of Us”) and Globe and Critics Choice winner Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”).

SEEEmmys: ‘Succession’ and ‘The Bear’ lead with 6 wins each, HBO takes 9 in all

With “The Bear,” it still has heavy competition with series like “Ted Lasso” and “Abbott Elementary” – the latter of which overcame it in best comedy ensemble last year and could very well do it again the same way “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” won a second prize over “Fleabag” in 2020. Plus, Jeremy Allen White now has to compete against his breakout supporting co-star and Emmy winner Ebon Moss-Bachrach, therefore there’s a potential for vote-splitting. So it will be very interesting to see if any of these factors will detract the frontrunners and give any of these underdog series a leg up.

As of this writing, Gold Derby’s combined odds predict that the three drama races will go to “Succession” for ensemble, Kieran Culkin for actor and Sarah Snook for actress, that the three comedy trophies will be won by “The Bear” for ensemble, White for actor and Ayo Edebiri for actress, and that the two limited series categories will be scooped up by Steven Yeun and Ali Wong of “Beef.”

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