2024 Oscars scorecard: After the Globes, ‘Oppenheimer’ takes the lead over ‘Poor Things’

Jacob Sarkisian
·3 min read

Welcome to the second edition of this Oscars theory — the 35 boxes. This test, which admittedly doesn’t have the catchiest name in the world, tracks 35 key races across awards season in order to give us some insight into which films garner the strongest industry-wide support. The boxes are made up of various nominations and victories at many awards groups from the Golden Globes to the guilds to the Academy Award nominations themselves. The idea is, the more boxes you tick, the stronger your chances of winning Best Picture.

For example, in 2019, “Green Book” won 23 of these 35 boxes before winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Conversely, “Roma” filled in only 19 boxes while both “BlacKkKlansman” and “The Favourite” were at 20. Each of the three previous Best Picture winners prior to “Green Book” numbered among the top three entries on our season-end charts.

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Previously, “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,” and “Poor Things” were top of the tree with five boxes ticked out of 35. This came after the Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations. However, the Globes have just handed out their awards, so here’s the updated table.

“Oppenheimer” takes the outright lead for the first time with eight out of 35 boxes ticked. That comes thanks to a great night at the Golden Globes in which it won five awards. The three boxes it ticked were Golden Globe Picture Win (it won Best Drama Picture), Golden Globe Directing Win (Christopher Nolan won Best Director), and Golden Globe Acting win (Cillian Murphy won Best Drama Actor and Robert Downey Jr. won Best Supporting Actor).

“Poor Things” is just behind on seven boxes ticked after it checked off Golden Globes Picture Win with a Best Comedy/Musical Picture victory and Golden Globes Acting win with Emma Stone triumphing for Best Comedy/Musical Actress.

Only two other films won acting awards. “The Holdovers” won two — Best Comedy/Musical Actor for Paul Giamatti and Best Supporting Actress for Da’Vine Joy Randolph — while “Killers of the Flower Moon” secured a win in Best Drama Actress for Lily Gladstone. Both of those films, therefore, ticked off the Golden Globes Acting win box. “Killers of the Flower Moon” is now on 6/35 in third place while “The Holdovers” is on 4/35.

“Anatomy of a Fall” beat “Barbie” to win Best Screenplay, so Justine Triet‘s movie checks off Golden Globes Writing win to bring its total to 4/35, too.

“Barbie,” meanwhile, won Best Cinematic/Box Office Achievement and Best Original Song at the Globes but didn’t win any major awards. It was a disappointing night for Greta Gerwig‘s movie so it remains on 5/35, falling a few behind pack leader “Oppenheimer.” Next up are the SAG nominations on January 10.

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