2024 Oscars: How many Best Picture nominees will be shut out?

Matthew Stewart
·4 min read

Hours before the 96th Oscars, most prognosticators appear confident that nearly all 10 Best Picture nominees will be honored in at least one category apiece. Indeed, the consensus derived from the predictions of 9,000+ Gold Derby users is that “Past Lives” – which is only up for Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay – will stand alone in being completely blanked. Yet, since seven films vying for the main prize are each leading just one other race, more across-the-board snubs are perfectly plausible if not assured.

In the 14 years since the Best Picture category’s preferential voting system was enacted, only two Academy Awards ceremonies (2015 and 2019) have ended with no contenders for the top honor leaving empty-handed. During this period, an annual average of 2.6 Best Picture nominees have wound up with zero trophies, with the biggest shutouts applying to five films apiece in 2014 and 2023. In the latter case, “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “The Fabelmans,” “Tár,” and “Triangle of Sadness” failed to make good on any of their combined 33 bids.

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Those expecting all but one 2024 hopeful to take some gold may be inclined to cite the outcomes of the 2020 and 2021 ceremonies, where only “The Irishman” and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” were respectively overlooked. However, there were just nine and eight Best Picture nominees in those years rather than 10 – the set annual amount from 2022 onward. Considering only the four earlier 21st century cases in which precisely 10 movies competed here (2010-2011; 2022-2023), the shutout average that best applies to this year is significantly higher at exactly four, with the minimum being three.

The films presently in the running for Best Picture have a collective total of 71 nominations across 17 feature categories (excluding Best Visual Effects, Best Animated Feature, and Best Documentary Feature). As of now, our odds heavily favor bids leader “Oppenheimer” in the main race as well as seven others (director, actor, supporting actor, cinematography, film editing, original score, and sound), priming it to become the biggest winner since “Slumdog Millionaire” in 2009. Fittingly, the only other Best Picture contender predicted to achieve multiple victories is the frontrunner’s famed box office rival, “Barbie,” which has the edge in Best Costume Design and Best Original Song.

Since “Barbie” has virtually no chance of losing the song award, the possibility of it overperforming must be examined. Although “American Fiction” and “Poor Things” are respectively predicted to take the adapted screenplay and production design awards, one or both could easily go to “Barbie,” leaving the other film(s) in the company of “Past Lives.” Given that “Poor Things” only became the Gold Derby frontrunner in said contest on March 6, “Barbie” still maintains the support of 42% of our participating users, while its challenger has 54%.

“American Fiction” is one of four Best Picture nominees other than “Oppenheimer” out in front in an above-the-line race, along with “Anatomy of a Fall” (original screenplay), “Killers of the Flower Moon” (actress), and “The Holdovers” (supporting actress). While featured female Da’Vine Joy Randolph and writers Justine Triet and Arthur Harari are practically shoo-ins, “Killers” star Lily Gladstone could more than feasibly falter against Emma Stone (“Poor Things”), thus leaving her film Oscar-less.

Aside from “Poor Things,” the Best Picture nominees leading one below-the-line race each are “Maestro” (makeup and hairstyling) and “The Zone of Interest” (international feature). The latter should trounce its fellow non-American competitors thanks to the broad support indicated by its Best Picture nomination, but the former may come up short against “Poor Things,” which still has reasonable potential to finish the night with four wins.

In all, 423 – or 71.6% – of the 591 films that were nominated for Best Picture during the academy’s first 95 years were each given at least one Oscar. Factoring in that percentage and the 10-slate shutout average, the bottom line in this case is that, even though the snub rate should be far from record-breaking, the inevitable and atypical dominance of “Oppenheimer” will very likely leave more than one of the perceived Best Picture also-rans wanting for scraps.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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