2024 Oscars: Costume and Production Design lineups are identical for only the third time ever

Matthew Stewart
·3 min read

Anyone who didn’t perfectly predict this year’s Oscar nominees for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design has a uniquely valid excuse. This applies to all but a tiny fraction of Gold Derby’s nearly 11,000 prognosticators, whose solid consensus ultimately conflicted with the academy’s highly unusual decision to populate both categories with the same five films: “Barbie,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Napoleon,” “Oppenheimer,” and “Poor Things.” Since these two craft races have only been completely congruent twice before, it’s especially understandable that very few people anticipated this outcome.

The film that mainly tripped folks up in this case was “Napoleon,” which garnered support from only 49.9% of our users in the costume design race and scraped by with a production design backing rate of just 7.5%. In the former category, many had trouble settling on two of four on-the-bubble candidates (“Napoleon,” “Oppenheimer,” “The Color Purple,” and “Wonka”), while the latter’s pesky fifth slot was widely expected to be filled by “Asteroid City,” “The Color Purple,” or “The Zone of Interest”.

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Excluding the early period during which the costume and production design achievements of black-and-white and color films were judged separately, the all-time (59-year) alignment average for these categories as we know them is 54.2%. In almost three-quarters of past cases, either three (43.1%) or two (31.0%) movies have appeared on both lists. Although the categories have never produced entirely different sets of nominees, there have been six instances of just one film earning recognition in both areas.

The last time both lineups matched perfectly was 2004, when – as part of its flawless 11-category sweep – “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” doubly defeated “Girl with a Pearl Earring,” “The Last Samurai,” “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World,” and “Seabiscuit.” Conversely, the sole preceding occurrence in 1970 involved an even distribution of wins between “Anne of the Thousand Days” (costume design) and “Hello, Dolly!” (production design), which were also nominated against “Gaily, Gaily,” “Sweet Charity,” and “They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?”. In that case, both winners were Best Picture nominees, while all three losers were not.

Adding to the anomalous nature of the 2024 races, the maximum yearly alignment rate from 2005 to 2023 was 60%, as last demonstrated in 2022 by “Dune,” “Nightmare Alley,” and “West Side Story.” The most recent 80% instance was in 2002, when “Moulin Rouge!” won both awards against “Gosford Park,” “Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone,” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring.” The remaining respective costume and production design nominees in that case were “The Affair of the Necklace” and “Amélie.”

With over five weeks left until the 2024 Oscars ceremony, more than two-thirds of our odds makers support the notion of “Barbie” being the frontrunner in both design races. Counting said years when four awards were given out in these areas instead of two, any of the current dual competitors would be the 45th film – and first since “Black Panther” (2019) – to conquer both categories.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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