2024 Oscars: Best Director Predictions

Paul Sheehan and Jacob Sarkisian
·3 min read
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In 2010 the academy reintroduced the preferential ballot to decide the Best Picture winner. Over the ensuing 13 years, there has been a difference between the winners of that award and Best Director at six Academy Awards ceremonies. Prior to this such splits were fairly rare. Why the change? (Scroll down for our updated 2024 Oscar predictions for Best Director.)

At the Oscars, the winner of Best Picture is determined by a weighted ballot and the outcomes of the other 22 races, including Best Director, are decided by a popular vote. While voters simply select one nominee in those other races, when it comes to Best Picture they are asked to rank all the nominees. If one contender garners more than 50% of the first-place votes, it wins. If, however, no nominee crosses that threshold, the film with the fewest first-place votes is eliminated, with its ballots being reapportioned to the second-place pick. This process continues until one nominee reaches 50% plus one vote. The goal, says the academy, is to award the Best Picture award to a consensus choice.

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With two different voting systems, it’s easy to understand how often there is split between the winners of Best Picture and Best Director. In 2022, Jane Campion won Best Director for “The Power of the Dog” but “CODA” was named Best Picture. In 2019 Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director for “Roma” only to see his film eclipsed in the top race by “Green Book.” That had happened to Cuaron in 2014 as well when he won for “Gravity” but Best Picture went to “12 Years a Slave.” And while Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (“The Revenant”) and Damien Chazelle (“La La Land”) all won the Best Director Oscar, their films lost to “Argo” (2013), “Spotlight” (2016) and “Moonlight” (2017) respectively.

Inarritu also won Best Director for a film that took the top Academy Award: “Birdman” (2015). As with “The Revenant,” this also was a bravura directorial achievement and had strong support throughout the creative categories. When it comes to Best Director, bigger is better. So, who is making that kind of movie this year?

Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2024 Oscars Best Picture predictions.

UPDATED: September 5, 2023

LEADING CONTENDERS
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro” (Netflix)
Emerald Fennell, “Saltburn” (Amazon)
Greta Gerwig, “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” (Universal)
Alexander Payne, “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things” (Searchlight)
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple/Paramount)
Ridley Scott, “Napoleon” (Apple/Sony)
Celine Song, “Past Lives” (A24)

STRONG CONTENDERS
Blitz Bazawule, “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
David Fincher, “The Killer” (Netflix)
Craig Gillespie, “Dumb Money” (Sony)
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Andrew Haigh, “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight)
Todd Haynes, “May December” (Netflix)
Michael Mann, “Ferrari” (Neon)
Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Taika Waititi, “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight)

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
Ben Affleck, “Air” (Amazon Studios)
Wes Anderson, “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
Maggie Betts, “The Burial” (Amazon)
Matt Brown, “Freud’s Last Session” (SPC)
John Carney, “Flora and Son” (Apple)
George Clooney,  “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
Sofia Coppola, “Priscilla” (A24)
Jeff Nichols, “The Bikeriders” (20th)
George C. Wolfe, “Rustin” (Netflix)
David Yates, “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

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