2024 Oscars: Best Cinematography Predictions

At five of the last 10 Oscars, Best Cinematography has gone hand-in-hand with Best Director: Emmanuel Lubezki and Alfonso Cuaron for “Gravity” (2014); Lubezki and Alejandro G. Inarritu for both “Birdman” (2015) and “The Revenant” (2016); Linus Sandgren and Damien Chazelle for “La La Land” (2017); and Cuaron doing double duty on “Roma” (2019). Will that trend hold true this year? (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2024 Oscar predictions for Best Cinematography.)

The academy usually regards award-winning cinematography as pretty pictures within an epic technical feat of filmmaking. While great lighting and framing are laudable on their own, having a movie that looks like it was difficult to shoot goes a long way to snagging an Oscar. Recent lensing winners “Avatar” (2009), “Inception” (2010), “Hugo” (2011), “Life of Pi” (2012), “Gravity” (2013), “Blade Runner 2049” (2018) and “1917” (2020) also took home the Oscar for Best Visual Effects.

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While the lensers of “Inception” and “Gravity” first prevailed at the American Society of Cinematographers Awards, these precursor prizes do not have a stellar track record at forecasting the Oscar winner. Indeed, since the guild started handing out prizes in 1987, the two groups have agreed only 17 times:

1991: “Dances with Wolves” (Dean Semler)
1996: “Braveheart” (John Toll)
1997: “The English Patient” (John Seale)
1998: “Titanic” (Russell Carpenter)
2000: “American Beauty” (Conrad L. Hall)
2003: “Road to Perdition” (Hall)
2006: “Memoirs of a Geisha” (Dion Beebe)
2008: “There Will Be Blood” (Robert Elswit)
2009: “Slumdog Millionaire” (Anthony Dod Mantle)
2011: “Inception” (Wally Pfister)
2014: “Gravity” (Emmanuel Lubezki)
2015: “Birdman” (Lubezki)
2016: “The Revenant” (Lubezki)
2018: “Blade Runner 2049” (Roger Deakins)
2020: “1917” (Deakins)
2021: “Mank” (Erik Messerschmidt)
2022: “Dune” (Greig Fraser)

Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2024 Oscars Best Picture predictions.

UPDATED: September 12, 2023

LEADING CONTENDERS
Matthew Libatique, “Maestro” (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt, “The Killer” (Netflix)
Erik Messerschmidt, “Ferrari” (Neon)
Rodrigo Prieto, “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Rodrigo Prieto, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple/Paramount)
Robbie Ryan, “Poor Things” ” (Searchlight)
Hoyte van Hoytema, “Oppenheimer” (Universal)
Linus Sandgren, “Saltburn” (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer)
Greig Fraser, “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

STRONG CONTENDERS
Dan Laustsen, “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Philippe Le Sourd, “Priscilla” (A24)
Dariusz Wolski, “Napoleon” (Apple/Columbia)
Robert Yeoman, “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
Phedon Papamichael, “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney)
Jacques Jouffret, “Gran Turismo” (Sony)
Shabier Kirchner, “Past Lives” (A24)
Adam Stone, “The Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios)
Łukasz Żal, “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Robert D. Yeoman, “Asteroid City” (Focus Features/Universal)

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
Christopher Blauvelt, “May December” (Netflix)
Ed Lachman, “El Conde” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen, “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
Matthew J. Lloyd, “Origin” (Neon)
Pawel Pogorzelski, “Beau Is Afraid” (A24)
Tobias A. Schliessler, “Rustin” (Netflix)
Fraser Taggart, “Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount)
Lachlan Milne, “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight)
Kramer Morgenthau, “Creed III” (Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer/Warner Bros.)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

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