2024 Oscars: Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions

At the 2022 Oscars,  Sian Heder won Best Adapted Screenplay for “CODA,” her adaptation of the French film “La Famille Bélier.” “CODA” also claimed Best Picture, thereby becoming the fifth remake to win the top Oscar. In 2021 playwright Florian Zeller shared in the Oscar win for Best Adapted Screenplay with Christopher Hampton for bring his stage hit “The Father” to the screen. In his directorial debut Zeller bagged Anthony Hopkins his second Best Actor Oscar. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2024 Oscar predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay.)

Screen versions of stage works had won Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars 15 times before. The most recent of these was in 2017 when “Moonlight” director Barry Jenkins and playwright Tarell Alvin McCraney prevailed for adapting the latter’s un-produced play “In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue.” Prior to that you have to go all the way back to 1989 when Alfred Uhry won for adapting his hit play “Driving Miss Daisy.”

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At the 2023 Academy Awards,  Sarah Polley won for adapting Miriam Toews‘s novel “Women Talking.”  This award, which dates back to the first Oscars in 1928, has gone to the adapters of 48 novels over the year.  The most recent of these prior to 2023 was in 2020 when “Jojo Rabbit” director Taika Waititi won for bringing Christine Leunens novel “Caging Skies” to the big screen.

In 2021, “BlacKkKlansman” director Spike Lee shared in the win for Best Adapted Screenplay for his written work on Ron Stallworth‘s memoir of the same name. In the 95-year history of this category, only a dozen adaptations of such books have prevailed. Five of those non-fiction books adaptations were winners in the last decade: “The Social Network” (2011), “Argo” (2012), “12 Years a Slave” (2013) and “The Imitation Game” (2014) and “The Big Short” (2015).

Short stories provided source material for seven winners, with “Brokeback Mountain” in 2005 being the most recent. One-off sources have included a newspaper column (“Mrs. Miniver”) and a short film (“Sling Blade”).

Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2024 Oscars Best Picture predictions.

UPDATED: January 11, 2024

LEADING CONTENDERS
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” (Universal)
Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach, “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese , “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple)
Marcus Gardley, “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
Tony McNamara, “Poor Things” (Searchlight)
Cord Jefferson, “American Fiction” (MGM)

STRONG CONTENDERS
Andrew Haigh, “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight)
Kelly Fremon Craig, “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Dave Callaham, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony)
Troy Kennedy Martin , “Ferrari” (Neon)
Mark St. Germain, “Freud’s Last Session” (SPC)

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
Sofia Coppola, “Priscilla” (A24)
Julia Cox, “Nyad” (Netflix)
Matt Johnson, Matthew Miller, “BlackBerry” (IFC)
Mark L. Smith , “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)
Andrew Kevin Walker, “The Killer” (Netflix)
Taika Waititi, Iain Morris, “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight)

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