2024 Oscars: Best Actor Predictions

Almost all of the Best Actor winners at this century’s 22 Academy Awards ceremonies have ticked at least one of these two boxes: they were over 40 or portraying a real-life fellow. The only exceptions: Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”) and Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”) who were 36 and 39 respectively when they won for playing fictional characters.

In 2023, Brendan Fraser, 54, won for his heartbreaking performance in “The Whale.” The year before saw Will Smith, 53, prevail for portraying tennis coach Richard Williams in “King Richard.” In 2021, Anthony Hopkins became the oldest Best Actor champ ever at age 83 when he won for “The Father.”  At the 2020 Oscars, Joaquin Phoenix was 45 when he picked up the Best Actor Oscar for “Joker.” And in 2019, 37-year-old Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) triumphed for his riveting portrayal of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury. (Scroll down for the most up-to-date 2024 Oscar predictions for Best Actor.)

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Of the 10 most recent Best Actor winners at the Oscars, Smith, Malek and four others won for taking on real-life roles: Matthew McConaughey (“Dallas Buyers Club,” 2014); Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything,” 2015); Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant,” 2016); and Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour,” 2018).

Who will win Best Actor at the 2024 Oscars? Below, we consider the contenders. This roster includes past Academy Awards champs, previous nominees and those looking for their first bids, be they film newcomers or long-time screen actors.

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

Please note: To read full descriptions of each film, check out our 2024 Oscars Best Picture predictions. Category placement remains in question for several of these contenders who could be positioned in Best Supporting Actor.

UPDATED: November 8, 2023

LEADING CONTENDERS
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro” (Netflix)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple)
Colman Domingo, “Rustin” (Netflix)
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
Anthony Hopkins, “Freud’s Last Session” (SPC)
Barry Keoghan, “Saltburn” (Amazon)
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer” (Universal)
Joaquin Phoenix, “Napoleon” (Apple/Sony)
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction” (MGM)

STRONG CONTENDERS
Matt Damon, “Air” (Amazon Studios)
Adam Driver, “Ferrari” (Neon)
Michael Fassbender, “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight)
Gael García Bernal, “Cassandro” (Amazon)
Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight)
David Strathairn, “A Little Prayer” (SPC)
Teo Yoo, “Past Lives” (A24)

POSSIBLE CONTENDERS
Swann Arlaud, “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
Jay Baruchel, “BlackBerry” (IFC)
Paul Dano, “Dumb Money” (Sony)
Chris Evans, “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
Michael Fassbender, “The Killer” (Netflix)
Jamie Foxx, “The Burial” (Amazon)
Christian Friedel, “The Zone of Interest” (A24)
Callum Turner,  “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

DISCUSS All the Oscar contenders with Hollywood insiders in our notorious forums

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