2024 Grammy race for Best Musical Theater Album: Can another Sondheim album upset the reigning Tony champ?

Jeffrey Kare
·5 min read
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According to the current combined predictions of Gold Derby users, reigning Tony champ “Kimberly Akimbo” is the frontrunner to win this year’s Grammy for Best Musical Theater Album with 10/3 odds. So far within this century 10 shows that won Tonys for both Best Musical and Best Score also came out on top at the Grammys. Among them are “The Producers,” “Hairspray,” “Spring Awakening,” “In the Heights,” “The Book of Mormon,” “Kinky Boots,” “Hamilton,” “Dear Evan Hansen,” “The Band’s Visit” and “Hadestown.” Will that trend continue this year?

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“Kimberly Akimbo” features a score by Jeanine Tesori and David Lindsay-Abaire. Tesori has been nominated five times before but still has yet to win. Those previous bids were for “Thoroughly Modern Millie” in 2003 (lost to “Hairspray”), “Shrek the Musical” in 2010 (lost to “West Side Story”), “Fun Home” in 2016 (lost to “Hamilton”), “Soft Power” in 2021 (lost to “Jagged Little Pill”), and “Caroline, or Change” last year (lost to “Into the Woods”). Meanwhile Lindsay-Abaire is a previous nominee for co-writing with Tesori the score for “Shrek the Musical.”

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In second place with 19/5 odds is “Sweeney Todd.” Just as the most recent Broadway revival recording of “Into the Woods” pulled off an upset in this category last year, could we be underestimating another Stephen Sondheim musical this year? “Into the Woods” probably benefitted in part from having previous Grammy winner Sara Bareilles as a principal soloist on its album. Now “Sweeney Todd” has Josh Groban. He’s been nominated four times before, but still has yet to win a Grammy. Voters may feel he’s overdue at this point.

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It’s also worth noting that three prior recordings of “Sweeney Todd” were at least nominated in this category. The original cast album won in 1980. The New York Philharmonic’s recording was nominated in 2002, but lost to “The Producers.” The previous Broadway revival was nominated in 2007, but lost to “Jersey Boys.” In addition, the soundtrack for the Tim Burton-directed film adaptation was nominated for Best Visual Media Compilation in 2008, but lost to “Juno.”

In third place with 4/1 odds is “Some Like It Hot.” That features a jazzy score by Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman, who both previously won here for “Hairspray” back in 2003. The jazz membership within the recording academy (the genre with the second largest representation in the academy with 16% of total voters) can now vote on this award since musical theater was merged with jazz, traditional pop and contemporary instrumental into one field. So it’s possible that the winner will be more heavily influenced by them than by purely musical theater voters. The particular musical stylings of “Some Like It Hot” could give it a leg up with them. After all, it did manage to beat “Kimberly Akimbo” for Best Orchestrations at the Tonys earlier this year. It’s also worth noting the original Broadway cast recording of the previous stage musical adaptation of “Some Like It Hot,” titled “Sugar,” contended here back in 1973, but lost to “Don’t Bother Me, I Can’t Cope.”

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In fourth place with 9/2 odds is “Shucked.” That features a country music score by Brandy Clark and Shane McAnally. Clark is now a 16-time Grammy nominee, and this is one of six nominations she received this year alone. The other five are Best American Roots Song and Best Americana Performance (both for “Dear Insecurity”), Best Americana Album (for her self-titled release), and Best Country Solo Performance and Best Country Song (both for “Buried”). Voters may feel she’s overdue. Meanwhile, McAnally happens to be a two-time Grammy winner for co-writing tunes with Kacey Musgraves in the category of Best Country Song. First in 2014 was “Merry Go ‘Round,” and then in 2019 he prevailed for “Space Cowboy.” And this is one of two nominations McAnally received this year. The other is in the category of Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical. So this could be a place for voters to award both Clark and McAnally.

In fifth place with 9/2 odds is “Parade.” This is actually the very first time a cast recording of Jason Robert Brown and Alfred Uhry‘s 1998 musical is in contention at the Grammys. The original cast album was overlooked for a nomination. The revival recording features Ben Platt, a previous winner here for “Dear Evan Hansen” in 2018, as a principal soloist. “Parade” happens to be the reigning Tony champion for Best Revival of a Musical. Although it is worth noting that so far within this past decade only one Tony winner for Best Revival has prevailed at the Grammys: “The Color Purple” in 2017.

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