2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

There’s an idea that a show can finally get in front of the right audience, and build enough momentum to gain Emmys attention in its later seasons, but those moments are few and far between, and often fueled specifically by a show hitting Netflix. That actually has happened for SyFy’s “Resident Alien,” so star Alan Tudyk’s Emmy chances should not be discounted this year, but for shows like “The Righteous Gemstones” on HBO that are multiple seasons in, and have gotten close but no cigar, it is an uphill battle toward any acting nominations.

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Maybe the stars of “What We Do in the Shadows” have been just missing the cut each year, after nominations voting. The FX project has been nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series (a category with more nomination slots than Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series) after all. But realistically, voters are focused on what new shows deserve Emmys attention.

Prior to Jeremy Allen White winning for “The Bear” at the most recent ceremony, voters had been kind of hooked on awarding creator/stars like Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”), Bill Hader (“Barry”), and Donald Glover (“Atlanta”). So even if Patrick Brammall (“Colin From Accounts”) or Adjani Salmon (“Dreaming Whilst Black”) are not yet household names off their critically acclaimed international imports, they’re representing one season shows that are incredibly easy for anyone to quickly catch up on, and they fit a type voters respect.

All that said, White looks incredibly hard to beat right now. If “Only Murders in the Building” premieres its fourth season in time for final voting, that could add some momentum to Steve Martin and Martin Short’s Emmy campaigns (Season 3 is the one they’re eligible for though.) It is also the last time voters will have a chance to award Larry David for starring as a version of himself in “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” which just ended after 12 seasons. That very well might be more enticing, though that show has always struggled a little bit with voters who take umbrage with it not being fully scripted.

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Utkarsh Ambudkar, “Ghosts” (CBS)
Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Patrick Brammall, “Colin From Accounts” (Paramount+)
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)
Kelsey Grammer, “Frasier” (Paramount+)
Theo James, “The Gentlemen” (Netflix)
Jharrel Jerome, “I’m a Virgo” (Prime Video)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Kayvan Novak, “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Seth Rogen, “Platonic” (Apple TV+)
Adjani Salmon, “Dreaming Whilst Black” (Showtime)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Alan Tudyk, “Resident Alien” (SyFy)
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (Hulu)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, “Reservation Dogs” (FX)

More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Plenty of actors have won the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series twice, even consecutively, so it would be notable for “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White to win a second year in a row—it just wouldn’t really be a historical moment. On the flip side, if Kelsey Grammer were to win for “Frasier,” he would break the category records for most wins, and probably the largest gap between wins for the same performance.
Notable Ineligible Series: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (ended); Bill Hader, “Barry” (ended); Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Season 2 is not eligible)

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