2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

If there are two performers among any category that are coming back to the Emmys race with a vengeance it’s “The Morning Show” stars Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon. The soapy workplace drama they’re both listed as executive producers is the foundation on which Apple TV+’s entire Emmys strategy is based upon. And in case we forget, going into the 2020 Primetime Emmys ceremony, the expectation was that Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series was the former “Friends” star’s to lose (instead “Euphoria” star Zendaya won in a history-making upset.) Meanwhile, Witherspoon, the only one of the pair nominated for the show’s second season, has never won an Emmy for any of her television performances, even though she consistently produces and stars in Emmy-winnings series.

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With so few dramas reentering the Emmys race after past recognition, the timing does seem to work out in their favor the most, but it should also be noted that Imelda Staunton’s two predecessors on “The Crown,” Claire Foy and Olivia Colman, both won the Emmy for their second season playing Queen Elizabeth. With this also being the last awards run for the prestigious Netflix series, it’s entirely possible that the 68 year old actress could go out on a win as well.

Though the winter awards season focused more on series that were eligible for last season’s Emmys, shows like “The Gilded Age,” “The Curse,” and “Justified: City Primeval” did receive some recognition, paving the way for stars Carrie Coon, Emma Stone, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, respectively, to be recognized. And a few of the 2024 premieres like “Elsbeth,” “Fallout,” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” serve as a greater platform for Carrie Preston, Ella Purnell, and Maya Erskine, the stars of past Emmy nominated shows like “True Blood,” “Yellowjackets,” and “PEN15.”

Again, with “The Morning Show” already having two contenders for this category, it seems unlikely that the streaming service will pile up more nominations, but it definitely is working with a lot of actresses who one could argue are due for an awards win, from “Silo” star Rebecca Ferguson to “The New Look” star Juliette Binoche.

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Clark Backo, “The Changeling” (Apple TV+)
Juliette Binoche, “The New Look” (Apple TV+)
Carrie Coon, “The Gilded Age” (HBO)
Jennifer Connelly, “Dark Matter” (Apple TV+)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Justified: City Primeval” (FX)
Maya Erskine, “Mr. and Mrs. Smith” (Prime Video)
Rebecca Ferguson, “Silo” (Apple TV+)
Shanola Hampton, “Found” (NBC)
Jess Hong, “3 Body Problem” (Netflix)
Carrie Preston, “Elsbeth” (CBS)
Ella Purnell, “Fallout” (Prime Video)
Imelda Staunton, “The Crown” (Netflix)
Emma Stone, “The Curse” (Showtime)
Reese Witherspoon, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Sarah Snook, “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: There are no possible streaks here in the traditional sense. It’s been a decade since an actress won this award in back-to-back years. However, Imelda Staunton does have a shot at becoming the third actress to win the Emmy for playing Queen Elizabeth II on “The Crown.” Her predecessors Claire Foya and Olivia Colman both won for their second seasons in the role.
Notable Ineligible Series: Sarah Snook, “Succession” (ended); Elisabeth Moss, “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Season 6 is not eligible); Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets” (Season 3 is not eligible); Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us” (Season 2 is not eligible); Sharon Horgan, “Bad Sisters” (Season 2 is not eligible); Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Season 2 is not eligible)

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