2023 Tony Awards slugfest: Final predictions for play nominations [WATCH]

David Buchanan
·4 min read

“Out of all the Tony categories this season, this could be the most complicated,” notes Sam Eckmann about the race for the top Broadway honor of Best Play. It’s a sentiment we share about Best Play Revival, too, as we discuss our final predictions for the upcoming 76th Tony Awards nominations. All told, 23 productions will contend for slots in categories honoring the best dramatic works of the year, which will be announced on May 2. Watch the full video slugfest above.

Ironically, even with an embarrassment of riches of shows from which to predict the top two categories, Sam and I have identical lineups. For Best Play, we’re both picking “Leopoldstadt,” “Fat Ham,” “Between Riverside and Crazy,” “Cost of Living,” and “Life of Pi,” but there are plenty of other works we think could sneak in. Sam thinks “Ain’t No Mo’” is in a close sixth place and singles out “Good Night, Oscar” and “Prima Facie” as potential surprises. For Best Revival, we both have “The Piano Lesson,” “Death of a Salesman,” “A Doll’s House,” and “Topdog/Underdog.” I note that one of the two productions we leave out of our lists — “Ohio State Murders” — has 100/1 odds in our current combined odds but is absolutely still in this race.

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We see eye to eye on Best Actress, too, which will have only four nominees unless there is a statistical tie in voting. Sam and I both think Jodie Comer (“Prima Facie”) and Jessica Chastain (“A Doll’s House”) lead the pack, with Audra McDonald (“Ohio State Murders”) and Rachel Brosnahan (“The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window”) rounding out the category. Yes, that leaves out Laura Linney (“Summer, 1976”) but Sam admits that voters may have a “hard time choosing between” her and her costar Jessica Hecht; Zoë Wanamaker rounds out the list of potential nominees.

Our predictions diverge on the rest of the categories, though. Sam calls the Best Actor category a “bloodbath” with at least 10 performers competitive for only five slots. He chooses Sean Hayes (“Good Night, Oscar”), Wendell Pierce (“Salesman”), Stephen McKinley Henderson (“Between Riverside and Crazy”), Marcel Spears (“Fat Ham”), and John David Washington (“Piano Lesson”), while I swap out his final two for the two actors from “Topdog/Underdog,” Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Corey Hawkins.

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In the Featured Categories, we match in our choices the majority of the time. We both have ‘Leopoldstadt’s’ Brandon Uranowitz and David Krumholtz as well as Samuel L. Jackson (“Piano Lesson”) in for Featured Actor. Sam bets on Jordan E. Cooper (“Ain’t No Mo’”) and Chris Herbie Holland (“Fat Ham”) while I go with Arian Moayed (“A Doll’s House”) and Andre Dé Shields (“Salesman”). For Featured Actress, we agree on Sharon D Clarke (“Salesman”), Danielle Brooks (“Piano Lesson”), Crystal Lucas-Perry (“Ain’t No Mo’”), and Katy Sullivan (“Cost of Living”). Sam fills out his list with D’Arcy Carden (“The Thanksgiving Play”) while I go with Faye Castelow (“Leopoldstadt”).

Finally, for Best Director we’re only off by one. Our predictions share in common “Leopoldstadt,” “Life of Pi,” “The Piano Lesson,” and “Topdog/Underdog.” I’m opting for past Tony nominee Jamie Lloyd for “A Doll’s House,” while Sam goes with “Fat Ham.” That’s the play I would pick if and when I drop “A Doll’s House” for fear that the production was too divisive, especially for audience members expecting a lavish period piece who are unaware of Lloyd’s stripped-down aesthetic, while Sam contemplates giving “The Piano Lesson” the boot in favor of either “A Christmas Carol” or “Prima Facie.”

PREDICT the 2023 Tony Award nominees through May 2

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