2023 Tony Awards nominations prediction center is active! 23 plays jockey for Broadway’s top honors

Sam Eckmann
·6 min read

Friends, Romans, theater lovers, lend me your ears! The 2023 Tony Awards nominations prediction center is now open, with 23 plays competing for Broadway’s top honors. Be sure to log your early predictions now to see if you can pick which dramas will win over the Tony voters.

Best Play is always a crowded field thanks to a slew of limited engagements that pepper the Broadway calendar, and this season is no different. 18 new works will attempt to be singled out as one of the five nominees.

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“Leopoldstat” opened in October to a rapturous response from critics and audiences. It’s the latest drama from Tom Stoppard, who has won this category more than any other playwright. Featuring a vast ensemble cast which includes David Krumholtz, Brandon Uranowitz, and Faye Castelow, the gut wrenching story follows a Jewish family over multiple generations. It’s one of the rare straight plays that have turned into big fat hit, with a box office haul that has repeatedly smashed house records at the Longacre Theatre, and extended its run until July due to popular demand.

SEE Tom Stoppard could break his own Tony Awards record with ‘Leopoldstadt’

“Ain’t No Mo’” doesn’t have the same financial success story of “Leopoldstat,” but the play has nevertheless become one of the most talked about productions of the season. Playwright and star Jordan E. Cooper imagines an alternate present day in his script, where the United States government offers every Black citizen a one-way plane ticket to Africa. The riotous comedy opened to stellar reviews but never caught on at the box office. But Cooper launched a grassroots social media campaign to save the show from closing, and a handful of high profile celebrity buy-outs (from the likes of RuPaul, Queen Latifah, Shonda Rhimes, and more) helped extend the run by an additional week.

The early half of the season had plays for every type of theatergoer. There was a moving adaptation of “The Kite Runner.” Mike Birbiglia used humor to explore the concept of mortality in “The Old Man and The Pool.” Nathan Lane and Danny Burstein present reflect on mortality through the lens of parent/child relationships in “Pictures From Home.” Jefferson Mays starred in a tour de force one-man version of “A Christmas Carol,” which set the bar for inventive stagecraft this season. Paul Bettany played Andy Warhol opposite Jeremy Pope’s Jean-Michel Basquiat in “The Collaboration.”

Then there were the two recent Pulitzer Prize winners which made the jump to Broadway after their celebrated Off-Broadway runs. The first was “Cost of Living” which explored two different relationships between a disabled and able persons. It notably gave acting opportunities to Gregg Mozgala and Katy Sullivan, who live with the same disabilities as their on-stage characters. Then there’s “Between Riverside and Crazy” by Stephen Adly Guirgis. The play features a commanding central performance by Stephen McKinley Henderson as a retired New York City police officer who is trying to hold onto his rent controlled apartment.

The spring brings with it much awaited star vehicles. Emmy-winner (and one-time Tony host) Sean Hayes will bring his celebrated portrayal of Oscar Levant to the rialto in “Good Night, Oscar.” Jodie Comer stars in a one-woman play “Prima Facie,” about a lawyer whose world view shifts after she is sexually assaulted. Tony-winner Adrienne Warren (“Tina”) returns to Broadway in a stage version of “Room,” portraying the same character that won Brie Larsen her Oscar. Stage veterans Laura Linney and Jessica Hect will team up for David Auburn’s “Summer, 1976.” “The Thanksgiving Play” will also make its long-awaited main stew bow, brought to life by D’Arcy Carden, Katie Finneran, Scott Foley, and Chris Sullivan.

Of course, two of the most anticipated new works don’t have famous stars. The stunning adaptation of “Life of Pi” will open this March with its Olivier-winning lead, Hiran Abeysekera, and puppetry in tow. So get ready to fall in love with Richard Parker the tiger all over again. Then there’s “Fat Ham,” the Pulitzer Prize winner (yes, a third one!) from James Ijames. In a remix of “Hamlet,” a black queer man named Juicy is visited by the ghost of his father during a barbeque. But Juicy struggles with the concept of revenge and seeks to end the cycle of violence.

SEE 2023 Tony Awards eligibility rulings (round 1): ‘Kimberly Akimbo,’ ‘Into the Woods,’ ‘1776’ and a change in voting procedure

This season is surprisingly light on play revivals. Only five such productions have opened thus far and all but one of them have completed their limited runs.

“The Piano Lesson” was perhaps perhaps the biggest box office success of this lot. That’s likely thanks to name recognition for the late playwright August Wilson, as well as its all star cast which featured the likes of John David Washington, Danielle Brooks, and Samuel L. Jackson. Then there was a new version “Death of a Salesman” which featured a predominantly Black cast and dialed up the dream-like elements in the script. Wendell Pierce was a formidable Willy Loman, and Sharon D Clarke will hope that her performance of Linda brings her to the podium after narrowly losing the Tony last year.

Strong performances were a theme this fall, as Corey Hawkins and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II stormed through Susan Lori Parks’ searing “Topdog/Underdog.” Then Audra McDonald ripped our hearts out with one searing final look in Adrienne Kennedy’s “Ohio State Murders.”

The only revival currently playing, and the only one which will remain open through Tony season, is “A Doll’s House.” Recent Oscar-winner Jessica Chastain takes on the coveted role of Nora Helmer in Amy Herzog’s adaptation of the Henrik Ibsen classic. Will the production benefit from being the only contender still running, or do voters have a favorite from the fall?

Head to the prediction center now to log your predictions. The eligibility cut-off date for the 2023 Tony Awards is April 27. Nominations will be announced on May 2, ahead of a June 11 ceremony.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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