2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterward, final voting commences August 17 and ends the night of August 28. The 75th annual Primetime Emmy Awards will now take place Monday, January 15, live on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

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The State of the Race

Although comedy is subjective, Jeremy Allen White giving the most acclaimed performance among the 2023 Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series Emmy nominees is not. The young star has already won a Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, and SAG Award so far this year for his work on the FX dramedy set at a Chicago restaurant. A couple of those wins were against fellow nominees Bill Hader (“Barry”) and Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”).

It should be pointed out though that while plenty of performances on half-hour series that are a little more dark and/or dramatic (i.e. the aforementioned Hader, Donald Glover in “Atlanta,” Jeffrey Tambour in “Transparent”) have still won this category recently, the last two winners were from much lighter shows.

Maybe it was the pandemic that drew voters, and audiences in general, toward more traditional comedic performances like Eugene Levy in “Schitt’s Creek” and Jason Sudeikis in “Ted Lasso,” but a win for White over the latter actor would indicate how TV Academy members are once again receptive to more challenging material.

“Ted Lasso” will for sure go down in Emmy history, even if it is really over after three seasons, but it does not seem like Sudeikis will get a record-tying third consecutive Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series win as a parting gift for his turn as the idealistic soccer coach—and he seems fine with that.

If there is an actor who has gotten a boost recently, despite none of the nominees campaigning in line with SAG strike rules, it is Martin Short. It was already fascinating to see he was not nominated alongside his “Only Murders in the Building” co-star Steve Martin this time, but with the spotlight solely on him now, the third season of the Hulu comedy that is currently airing during voting has gotten enough of a positive response to make Emmy voters consider honoring his Season 2 work come January.

Power Rankings:

1. Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)

2. Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

3. Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

4. Bill Hader, “Barry” (HBO)

5. Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)

Will Win: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Could Win: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Should Win: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Should Sudeikis receive a third Emmy in a row, it would be an achievement only Michael J. Fox (“Growing Pains”), Carroll O’Connnor (“All in the Family”), and Don Adams (“Get Smart”) had accomplished before him.
Notable Ineligible Series: Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Season 12 was not eligible); Anthony Anderson, “Black-ish” (ended)

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