2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Comedy Series


We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterward, final voting commences August 17 and ends the night of August 28. The 75th annual Primetime Emmy Awards will now take place Monday, January 15, live on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

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The State of the Race

Sometimes scheduling determines what show is most likely to win a major Emmy like Outstanding Comedy Series. Right up to even nominations voting, it looked like this category would be another race between “Ted Lasso” and “Abbott Elementary,” with “The Bear” taking a backseat since it’s predetermined its star Jeremy Allen White will win Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series for the freshman season of the FX show.

But then Season 2 came out all at once, right as Emmy voting commenced, and was even better than the first season that dominated all cultural conversation last summer. While TV Academy members are voting on Season 1 specifically, one could definitely argue the standout Season 2 episode centered on Richie moved the needle enough to where Ebon Moss-Bacharach got a surprise Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series nomination.

Ultimately, what is affecting the chances of “Abbott Elementary” winning is that its second season wrapped in April, and although ABC will be airing reruns of it for a while as the WGA and SAG strikes get sorted out, a good chunk of the TV Academy already watched it upon first airing. Meanwhile “Ted Lasso” has the benefit of ending on the May 31 eligibility deadline, and being positioned as a show that has fully ended. Basically, recency bias is helping “Ted Lasso” and “The Bear” to the detriment of “Abbott Elementary” right now.

But “Ted Lasso” is not the only comedy beloved by the Emmys that ended this season. Although it has been five years and five seasons since Prime Video’s “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” became the first streaming series to win Outstanding Comedy Series, the final season of the Amy Sherman-Palladino-helmed period piece stuck the landing. With a fanbase within the TV Academy strong enough to keep the series and stars Rachel Brosnahan and Alex Borstein nominated year after year, and the common theme of the Emmys awarding a show’s last season, it does feel like “Maisel” has more of a fighting chance than people give it credit for.

However, Amazon has an even bigger dark horse in the form of “Jury Duty,” from its offshoot service Freevee. The prank series is another one that premiered shortly before voting began, and quickly built up enough momentum to eclipse a show like “What We Do in the Shadows,” which similarly got a surprise first nomination in this category last year. The difference between the two is that “What We Do in the Shadows” was three seasons deep. “Jury Duty” is eight half-hour episodes on a platform free to everyone. If there’s a nominee people will watch in the interim between nominations and final voting, it’s “Jury Duty,” and recency bias could once again factor into what series wins the category this year.

Power Rankings:

  1. “The Bear” (FX)

  2. “Jury Duty” (Amazon Freevee)

  3. “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)

  4. “Ted Lasso” (Apple TV+)

  5. “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)

  6. “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Prime Video)

  7. “Wednesday” (Netflix)

  8. “Barry” (HBO)

Will Win: “The Bear”
Could Win: “Jury Duty”

Should Win:
“Abbott Elementary”

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: “Ted Lasso”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Should “Ted Lasso” score a third consecutive Outstanding Comedy Series Emmy, it would not break any major records, but it would put the Apple TV+ hit in the same league as other beloved sitcoms like “The Mary Tyler Moore Show,” “Taxi,” and “30 Rock,” which also won the category three times in a row.
Notable Ineligible Series: “Hacks” (Season 3 was not eligible); “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (Season 12 was not eligible); “Black-ish” (ended)

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