2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Variety Special Writing
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Based on Gold Derby’s odds, one of the absolute tightest 2023 Creative Arts Emmy races involves Best Variety Special Writing contenders Chris Rock and John Mulaney, both of whom have previously conquered the category and are now facing off for the first time ever. Having both pushed their comedy to new levels of boldness in their respective Netflix specials “Selective Outrage” and “Baby J,” they provide voters with a truly tough choice when it comes to honoring the most impressive writing of the year.
This contest is made even more interesting by the fact that Rock and Wanda Sykes (“I’m an Entertainer”) are competing against each other after jointly earning four writing nominations and one win for “The Chris Rock Show” over two decades ago. Also included in this lineup are the sketch comedy special “Would It Kill You to Laugh?” and the career retrospective “Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love.”
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In order to make sense of this nail biter of a race, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 29 other Creative Arts Emmy categories.
“Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love” — Carol Leifer and Jon Macks
Leifer and Macks, who have collaborated on over a dozen projects, including 2018’s “The Carol Burnett Show: 50th Anniversary Special,” were previously nominated in this category together for their work on the 2010 and 2012 Oscars ceremonies. She is also a two-time Best Comedy Series nominee for “Seinfeld” (1996) and “The Larry Sanders Show” (1997), while he has picked up additional variety writing notices for the 2009 Oscars, the 2014 and 2015 Golden Globes, and “Betty White’s 90th Birthday” (2012).
“Chris Rock: Selective Outrage” — Chris Rock
Aside from said writing win for his eponymous show, Rock’s Emmys history includes victories in this category for his specials “Bring the Pain” (1997) and “Kill the Messenger” (2009), plus another for producing the former program. In all, he now has 21 nominations to his name, including one for producing his latest stand-up special, which was heavily marketed as Netflix’s first global live event leading up to its March 2023 premiere.
“John Mulaney: Baby J” — John Mulaney
Mulaney achieved his first variety writing win for his fourth stand-up special, “Kid Gorgeous at Radio City,” which dropped on Netflix in 2018. He also earned nominations in this category for “The Comeback Kid” (2016) and “John Mulaney & the Sack Lunch Bunch” (2020) after being recognized for his contributions to “Saturday Night Live” specials in 2013 and 2015. In 2011, he was awarded his first Emmy for co-writing a musical monologue delivered by “SNL” host Justin Timberlake.
“Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer” — Wanda Sykes
Sykes has now been nominated for writing and producing both of her Netflix comedy specials, the first of which was 2019’s “Not Normal.” A decade after winning her sole Emmy for co-writing Rock’s show, she was doubly recognized for her second HBO special, “I’ma Be Me” (2010). In addition to being a three-time comedy guest acting contender (“Black-ish,” 2017-2018; “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” 2020), she has earned two character voice-over performance notices (including one this year) for “Crank Yankers.”
“Would It Kill You to Laugh?” — Kate Berlant, Andrew DeYoung, and John Early
The only Emmy newcomers in this lineup all worked together on this unique sketch comedy special that stars Berlant and Early as parodic versions of themselves attempting to reconcile years after ending their professional relationship. Since 2012, the duo have collaborated on many projects, with DeYoung serving as their director several times, most notably on the Vimeo limited series “555.”
So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Variety Special Writing? In what is essentially a two-man race, Rock has an advantage over Mulaney in that his special also received a directing nomination, as did the last three writing victors. “Selective Outrage” isn’t expected to succeed in the other category, but that doesn’t necessarily affect its chances here, as demonstrated by 2022 writing winner and directing loser “Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel.”
On the other hand, Mulaney already proved in 2018 that he can win this award without a directing bid, and Hannah Gadsby (“Nanette”) did the same one year later. Although these cases are comparatively outdated, they still significantly bolster the “Baby J” campaign and thus heighten the unpredictability of this competition’s outcome. Predicting either result is completely justifiable, but, judging by the obvious critical consensus that Mulaney did a much better job than Rock of mining comedy from personal drama, his potential win is the one that makes a bit more sense.
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