2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Variety Series Directing

Following its surprise 2022 Emmy win for Best Variety Series Directing, “A Black Lady Sketch Show” is out of the running for the same prize this year, leaving an opportunity for “Saturday Night Live” to bounce back and achieve its 12th victory in the category. It does, however, face several formidable challengers, including “The Problem with Jon Stewart,” the host of which once starred on “The Daily Show,” which notably halted a “Saturday Night Live” success streak in 2015.

“Saturday Night Live” is the only former winner in this directing lineup, while “The Problem with Jon Stewart” stands as the only new nominee. The three other returning contenders are “Jimmy Kimmel Live!,” “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver,” and “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert,” which have now amassed a collective total of 18 mentions in this category.

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In order to determine how reasonably “Saturday Night Live” can be expected to kick off a new winning streak, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.

“Jimmy Kimmel Live!” — Andy Fisher
Episode: “20th Anniversary Special”

This is Fisher’s third nomination for this ABC series (on which he has worked since 2008), following his first two in 2013 and 2017. He was also recognized outside of the category in 2019 and 2020 for directing the first two Kimmel-produced “Live in Front of a Studio Audience” specials. In his submitted installment, which aired in January, Kimmel marks his 20th hosting anniversary by welcoming back his very first guests: George Clooney, Snoop Dogg, and Coldplay.

“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” — Paul Pennolino
Episode: “Afghanistan”

Pennolino is solely or partially responsible for all but one of this HBO show’s past directing bids and received a separate nomination for “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” in 2017. During his chosen episode from the news recap series’ ninth season, humorous commentator Oliver addresses the many humanitarian crises that have affected Afghans since the 2020-2021 withdrawal of U.S. troops and briefly touches on the 2022 Mar-a-Lago FBI search.

“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” — Jim Hoskinson
Episode: “John Oliver; Broadway Cast of ‘The Lion King’”

Before earning seven consecutive nominations for this CBS series, Hoskinson (who has yet to win an Emmy) racked up 10 for Colbert’s Comedy Central show, “The Colbert Report,” and one for the 2017 special “Stephen Colbert’s Live Election Night Democracy’s Series Finale.” As its title suggests, his eighth season selection features an interview with Oliver (Colbert’s former fellow “Daily Show” correspondent) and a performance of “Circle of Life” from the long-running Broadway version of “The Lion King.”

“The Problem with Jon Stewart” — André Allen
Episode: “Chaos, Law, and Order”

Allen’s first nomination for this Apple TV+ series comes after he received one each in this category for “Chappelle’s Show” (2004) and “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” (2018) as well as five technical direction bids for “The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” (2010-2011; 2013-2015). In the seventh episode of this show’s second season, Stewart takes a characteristically hard-hitting look at how allowing American gun laws to weaken causes decreased safety across the board.

“Saturday Night Live” — Liz Patrick
Episode: “Hosts: Steve Martin and Martin Short”

Patrick, who shared a 2022 notice for this series with Don Roy King and won seven Daytime Emmys of her own for “The Ellen DeGeneres Show,” directed or co-directed every episode of the 48th “Saturday Night Live” season, which aired from October 2022 to April 2023. In what happens to be the season’s most-watched installment, “Only Murders in the Building” co-stars Martin and Short host a partly Christmas-themed show in which they play various sketch characters and lampoon “A Christmas Carol” and their own “Father of the Bride” film series.

So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Variety Series Directing? Although it certainly matters when it comes to other genres, the variety writing contest typically has no bearing on the outcome of this one, given that there has been just a single case of a program clinching both awards in a single year. While it is interesting that that 2015 instance involved Stewart’s version of “The Daily Show,” it’s also important to note that his new series isn’t even nominated for its writing.

Unsurprisingly, a decisive 74% of the Gold Derby users who’ve logged their Emmy predictions believe “Saturday Night Live” will easily make its second comeback in this category. In truth, they have made the wisest pick, not only because of the NBC series’ track record but also given Oliver’s show’s status as the presumed variety writing winner and said lack of alignment between that category and this one. Also considering the fact that voters have previously chosen to award sketch directing 86% of the time, the choice really couldn’t be much easier.

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