2023 Emmy Predictions: Best TV Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actor

Matthew Stewart
·6 min read
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One of the most surprising takeaways from the 2023 Primetime Emmy nominations announcement was the overperformance of “Welcome to Chippendales,” which picked up more acting bids (four) than almost any other limited series produced within the past year, behind only “Beef.” Murray Bartlett’s mention for the Hulu program gives him a shot at holding onto his Best TV Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actor title after winning for “The White Lotus” last year, but he faces quite a tough slate of competitors, including recent Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award champion Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”).

Along with “Beef” cast mates Joseph Lee and Young Mazino, Hauser is one of three first-time Emmy nominees in this supporting lineup. Aside from Bartlett, the group also includes returning contender Jesse Plemons (“Love & Death”) as well as outside winners Richard Jenkins (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”) and Ray Liotta (“Black Bird”), the last of whom is the first posthumous limited series acting nominee in a full quarter century.

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In order to make sense of this complex race, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.

Murray Bartlett as Nick De Noia (“Welcome to Chippendales”)
Episode: “Leeches”

Bartlett is a double Emmy contender this year, having also picked up a Best Drama Guest Actor bid for his single appearance during the first season of “The Last of Us.” In his submitted episode of this series, his choreographer character opens his own Chippendales franchise in New York City a few years after building the business with Steve Banerjee (Kumail Nanjiani), who promptly turns jealous of his associate after watching him publicly take credit for the whole idea.

Paul Walter Hauser as Larry Hall (“Black Bird”)
Episode: “You Promised”

Hauser, who got his acting start in 2010 and has since appeared on such shows as “Superstore,” “Kingdom,” and “Cobra Kai,” appears here as real-life suspected serial killer Larry Hall, who, while incarcerated in Springfield, Missouri, befriended convicted drug dealer and FBI operative Jimmy Keene (Taron Egerton). In the series’ sixth and final episode, Jimmy admits his deception to Larry, who responds violently upon realizing how much information he has given his supposed confidante.

Richard Jenkins as Lionel Dahmer (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”)
Episode: “Lionel”

If 2015 lead winner Jenkins (“Olive Kitteridge”) also succeeds this time, he will follow Ed Flanders (“A Moon for the Misbegotten,” 1976; “Harry S. Truman: Plain Speaking,” 1977) as the second recipient of both male limited program acting Emmys. He has submitted the eighth episode of his 10-part series, in which his character wrestles with the immense guilt and disgust he feels after learning his son, Jeffrey (Evan Peters), is a cannibalistic serial killer.

Joseph Lee as George Nakai (“Beef”)
Episode: “The Drama of Original Choice”

Lee, who is also known for his recent work on the third and final season of “Star Trek: Picard,” plays inherently rich sculptor George as a generally naïve pawn in his wife, Amy’s (Ali Wong), unending one-upmanship battle with contractor Danny (Steven Yeun). In the eighth episode, he reacts angrily when informed of the feud and then realizes that the new friend he knows as Zane is really Danny, who soon pays him an unexpected visit.

Ray Liotta as James Keene Sr. (“Black Bird”)
Episode: “Hand to Mouth”

With this posthumous nomination, Liotta (who died in May 2022) has a chance to achieve his second Emmy victory following his 2005 dramatic guest acting win for “ER.” As one of just a handful of deceased actors who have ever contended here, he plays imprisoned drug dealer Jimmy Keene’s disappointed and sickly father, who, in the series’ third installment, is asked by his son to help pay off a guard who has threatened to expose him as an FBI informant.

Young Mazino as Paul Cho (“Beef”)
Episode: “Just Not All at the Same Time”

Although he is the youngest actor in this lineup at 31 years old, Mazino’s career already spans a full decade and includes guest spots on series like “Blue Bloods” and “Prodigal Son.” In the fourth chapter of this 10-part series, his character (Danny’s younger brother) is unsuccessfully rebuffed by his Instagram chatmate, Amy, who is later surprised to receive a visit from him while on a work trip in Las Vegas.

Jesse Plemons as Allan Gore (“Love & Death”)
Episode: “Do No Evil”

Plemons, who was originally recognized here in 2016 for the second season of “Fargo,” has brought this series its only Emmy nomination with his portrayal of this real-life adulterous widower. In “Do No Evil,” Allan’s wife, Betty (Lily Rabe), is found dead in their home while he is away, and he later makes a police confession regarding his affair with the couple’s friend, Candy Montgomery (Elizabeth Olsen).

So, who will win the 2023 Emmy for Best TV Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actor? Since 82% of Gold Derby’s thousands of Emmy predictors have thrown their support behind Hauser, it’s difficult to argue a case against him. One strong statistic he can depend on is that, in all but one of the instances in which multiple same-year series each earned two or more nominations here, an actor from one of those programs ended up winning. Regardless of their industry statuses, this is bad news for Bartlett, Jenkins, and Plemons, whose chances of besting their two pairs of challengers like Alexander Skarsgård (“Big Little Lies”) did in 2017 are very slim.

Since Ben Whishaw’s 2019 Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award triumphs for “A Very English Scandal” led to a victory in this Emmy category, it’s wise to assume that Hauser is on the exact same path. After all, winning the favor of two completely different voting bodies is no easy feat, and having already done so definitely proves the well-liked actor’s viability in this prestigious contest.

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