2023 Emmy Predictions: Best TV Movie/Limited Series Writing
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This year’s limited program writing Emmy contest is unique in that it is the first in five years to include any TV movies at all and the first in 13 years to involve three of them. The one-off narrative specials in the running for this honor are “Fire Island,” “Prey,” and “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story,” all of which are also nominated for Best TV Movie, and the middle of which has achieved the rare feat of concurrently being recognized for its directing.
While all three of these telefilms stand as relatively strong contenders, this writing race is being very comfortably led by “Beef,” which is the only program that can possibly win all seven of this year’s major limited series Emmys. Putting up fights of their own are the miniseries “Fleishman is in Trouble” and “Swarm,” which both also face “Beef” in the corresponding lead actress and contemporary costumes categories.
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In order to determine whether “Beef” really has this in the bag, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.
“Beef” — Lee Sung Jin
Episode: “The Birds Don’t Sing, They Screech in Pain”
Lee, whose TV writing resume includes such shows as “It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia,” “Silicon Valley,” and “Tuca & Bertie,” is also presently nominated for producing this series and directing its final episode. The first of five scripts he wrote for the 10-part dramedy introduces viewers to his anthological concept of season-long, two-sided “beefs,” the first of which stems from a fateful road rage incident involving a weary contractor and a frazzled small business owner.
“Fire Island” — Joel Kim Booster
Episode: n/a
This rom-com stars Booster (who also shares in its Best TV Movie nomination) as a gay, male, millennial version of classic “Pride and Prejudice” character Elizabeth Bennet who finds his Mr. Darcy while vacationing on the titular island with his four closest friends. Also included in the intentionally diverse cast are Conrad Ricamora as the Darcy stand-in, Bowen Yang as the surrogate older sibling of Booster’s character, and Margaret Cho as their financially strapped parental representative.
“Fleishman is in Trouble” — Taffy Brodesser-Akner
Episode: “Me-Time”
Industry newcomer Brodesser-Akner independently penned all but one episode of this eight-part series, which is adapted from her bestselling 2019 novel of the same name. In this penultimate installment, all other characters take a backseat to Claire Danes’s Rachel, who is finally afforded an opportunity to freely tell her side of her and her ex-husband, Toby’s (Jesse Eisenberg), failed love story.
“Prey” — Patrick Aison and Dan Trachtenberg
Episode: n/a
As the seventh (and first small screen) entry in the time-honored “Predator” franchise, the 1700s-set “Prey” stands as the first telefilm to receive both writing and directing nominations since 2014’s “The Normal Heart” and “Sherlock: His Last Vow.” If it wins these two awards and Best TV Movie, it will be the third 21st century production to experience such success, after “Door to Door” (2003) and “Game Change” (2012).
“Swarm” — Donald Glover and Janine Nabers
Episode: “Stung”
First-time Emmy nominee Nabers received four scripting credits for this seven-part thriller, which she created alongside opening episode director and co-writer Glover, whose Emmys history includes acting and directing wins and a pair of writing bids for the comedy series “Atlanta.” In “Stung,” viewers get to know mentally unhinged pop star stan Dre Greene (Dominique Fishback), whose contentious relationship with her younger foster sister, Marissa (Chloe Bailey), takes a dark turn.
“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” — Eric Appel and Al Yankovic
Episode: n/a
The lengthiest movie in this lineup serves as an appropriately satirical account of Yankovic’s early life story that mainly focuses on his unconventional rise to fame in the 1980s. Appel (who directed the film) and Yankovic are also nominated as members of its producing team, while the latter picked up a third bid for crafting the original end credits song “Now You Know.”
So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best TV Movie/Limited Series Writing? It is worth noting that, considering every past case of double or triple victories within the limited program, directing, and writing categories, the largest chunk of titles on the list (26%) took both the teleplay and Best TV Movie prizes. There currently being three chances of that happening again makes the statistic hard to ignore, but, at this point in this particular race, it also seems quite foolish to doubt “Beef.”
While the average attempt to sweep either set of major continuing series categories results in 2.6 wins, the corresponding non-continuing program number is a significantly higher 3.8. Since “Beef” is bound to at least falter in the acting races, there is virtually no chance of it completely dominating the main ceremony, but its odds of hitting said average are great, partly because most of the other potential non-continuing sweepers have been honored for their writing, and because those writing wins were grouped with at least three other major ones.
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