2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Live Variety Special
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Just four days after wrapping his record-smashing, 330-show “Farewell Yellow Brick Road” tour, legendary musician Elton John received his very first Emmy nomination for headlining Disney+’s “Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium.” Given the program’s status as the clear frontrunner in this year’s Best Live Variety Special race, its Grammy, Oscar, and Tony-winning star is well on his way to finally joining the exclusive EGOT club.
In order for John to reach this massive milestone, his special will have to win against “Chris Rock: Selective Outrage” and the latest editions of the Oscars, Tonys, and Super Bowl Halftime Show. Since Rock and all three of said institutions have been honored by the TV academy before, every nominee in this lineup should be considered a serious threat.
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To determine what advantages the other contenders might have over “Elton John Live,” let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 29 other Creative Arts Emmy categories.
“Apple Music Super Bowl LVII Halftime Show” (Fox)
Shortly before the Kansas City Chiefs eked out their 2023 Super Bowl win against the Philadelphia Eagles, nine-time Grammy champion Rihanna headlined her first halftime show, which was the first since 2012 not presented by Pepsi. The then-pregnant singer’s solo performance, which consisted of over a dozen of her hits, ended up becoming the most-watched Super Bowl halftime show ever. It is the seventh to receive a nomination here, immediately following the winning 2022 show that featured Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, Eminem, Mary J. Blige, and Kendrick Lamar.
“Chris Rock: Selective Outrage” (Netflix)
Rock’s seventh stand-up comedy special and second for Netflix was heavily marketed as the streamer’s first global live event as well as his way of publicly addressing the 2022 Oscars slapping incident. Over the years, he has collected program and writing nominations for four of his pre-recorded HBO specials, including dual winner “Bring the Pain” (1997), plus variety performance notices for “The Chris Rock Show” (1999) and “Bigger & Blacker” (2000).
“Elton John Live: Farewell from Dodger Stadium” (Disney+)
John won his sole Tony (Best Original Score, “Aida”) in 2000 after clinching his first of five competitive Grammys in 1987 (Best Duo/Group Vocal Pop Performance, “That’s What Friends Are For”) and first of two Oscars in 1995 (Best Original Song, “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” from “The Lion King”). His televised concert, which featured guest performances from Brandi Carlile and Kiki Dee, was directed by Paul Dugdale, who helmed 2022 Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special winner “Adele: One Night Only.”
“95th Oscars” (ABC)
Although more than 30 previous Oscars ceremonies have picked up program Emmy nominations, the 1991 edition is the only one that has taken the gold. That was Billy Crystal’s second time hosting, while the latest show was the third presented by Jimmy Kimmel (after 2017 and 2018). “Everything Everywhere All at Once” cleaned up at the most recent ceremony by conquering seven categories including Best Picture, while “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “The Whale” also amassed multiple wins apiece.
“76th Tony Awards” (CBS)
Over the course of four decades, 26 Tonys ceremonies have earned program Emmy mentions, resulting in a dozen wins between 1987 and 2017. As was the case in 2022, Oscar recipient and Tony nominee Ariana DeBose hosted this year’s show under the direction of 14-time Emmy champ Glenn Weiss. Best Musical winner “Kimberly Akimbo” came out on top with five awards, followed by “Leopoldstadt” and “Some Like It Hot” with four each and “Life of Pi” with three.
So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Live Variety Special? While the sheer novelty of Rock’s special might win him a significant share of the overall vote, its lukewarm reception will probably hinder its chances. Conversely, although it’s a good sign that Oscars and Tonys viewership totals are still rising after dropping in 2021, there was nothing really special enough about either 2023 awards show to justify a comeback victory in this particular case.
The uniqueness and quality of Rihanna’s halftime show, plus the fact that the 2022 version was honored here, make it the biggest threat to “Elton John Live.” However, given the positive response to his once-in-a-lifetime special and the knowledge that this might be the 76-year-old rocker’s only chance to achieve EGOT status, many voters simply won’t be able to resist helping him get there.
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