2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Guest Actor

The 2023 Best Drama Guest Actor Emmy lineup consists of a balanced mix of outside winners, past nominees, and total first-timers whose wide age range runs from 10 to 83. Nick Offerman (“The Last of Us”) has been leading the pack all season, but all six final contenders have more than reasonable claims to victory. This includes Murray Bartlett, whose own mention for the same “Last of Us” installment comes on the heels of his 2022 supporting triumph for “The White Lotus” and is coupled with another featured limited series bid for “Welcome to Chippendales.”

“The Last of Us” immediately follows “Succession” as the second show to ever concurrently receive four nominations in this category. Its other two went to Emmy newcomers Lamar Johnson and Keivonn Montreal Woodard, with the remaining slots being filled by returning “Succession” hopefuls James Cromwell and Arian Moayed.

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Since all of these performances are strong in their own ways and will likely cause great division among voters, let’s make some sense of the race by taking a closer look at each one. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 29 other Creative Arts Emmy categories by September 9.

Murray Bartlett as Frank (“The Last of Us”)
Episode: “Long, Long Time”

The third episode of “The Last of Us” pulls away from lead characters Joel (Pedro Pascal) and Ellie (Bella Ramsey) to tell the achingly beautiful love story of Frank and Bill (Offerman). Several years into a pandemic-induced apocalypse, the two survivors meet on Bill’s heavily-guarded property, where Frank is quickly invited to stay. Over the course of nearly two decades, Frank breaks down his partner’s emotional barriers and helps him understand his life’s purpose.

James Cromwell as Ewan Roy (“Succession”)
Episode: “Church and State”

This is Cromwell’s fifth nomination in this category following single bids for “ER” (2001) and “Six Feet Under” (2003) and two for “Succession” (2020, 2022). He also has a supporting win to his name for the limited series “American Horror Story: Asylum” (2013). In his penultimate “Succession” appearance, his Ewan Roy expectedly shows up at his brother, Logan’s, funeral only to disrupt the flow of the proceedings by delivering an unanticipated and brutally honest speech during which he lambasts the deceased billionaire’s greed one last time.

Lamar Johnson as Henry (“The Last of Us”)
Episode: “Endure and Survive”

Johnson, whose acting career dates back over a dozen years, has reaped his first Emmy nomination for his portrayal of a young fugitive who crosses paths with Joel and Ellie as they make their way from Massachusetts to Wyoming. As Henry and his younger brother, Sam (Woodard), help the two out of Kansas City, he admits to Joel that he views himself as a bad person for having sacrificed a benevolent resistance leader in order to obtain the medicine that saved Sam’s life.

Arian Moayed as Stewy Hosseini (“Succession”)
Episode: “Honeymoon States”

Moayed, whose performance as Stewy spans a total of 19 episodes, has earned his second consecutive guest bid for one of his final appearances. In this installment set entirely at Logan Roy’s wake, he privately comforts his best friend and Logan’s son, Kendall (Jeremy Strong), and then agrees to vouch for him in his attempt to be named acting CEO of his father’s company. After expressing concerns about having been burned by Kendall before, he amiably does what is asked of him, although he knows he will gain nothing from it.

Nick Offerman as Bill (“The Last of Us”)
Episode: “Long, Long Time”

Offerman’s first proper acting Emmy nomination follows his three bids in the Best Reality Host category (shared with Amy Poehler) for “Making It.” His trademark gruff performing style perfectly lends itself to his portrayal of Bill, a paranoid yet remarkably resourceful pandemic survivor whose life changes for the better once a stranger named Frank enters it. As the two men spend their last 16 years together, Bill comes to realize that he had previously only been surviving rather than truly living.

Keivonn Montreal Woodard as Sam (“The Last of Us”)
Episode: “Endure and Survive”

Woodard’s notice is a doubly monumental achievement in that he is the all-time youngest male acting Emmy contender as well as the first deaf nominee in any male performing category. In his breakthrough role, the 10-year-old embodies a leukemia survivor who is forced to live on the run with his older brother due to his status as a wanted informant. Once the pair meet reluctant traveling companions Joel and Ellie, Sam forms a friendly bond with her that ends up impacting her more deeply than she initially expects.

So, who will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Drama Guest Actor? One very important thing to remember is that all four men who were recognized here for “Succession” last year were beaten by “Euphoria” actor Colman Domingo, possibly signaling that the “Last of Us” quartet will suffer the same outcome. Between Cromwell and Moayed (who were, of course, included in said “Succession” foursome), the former is much more likely to come out on top, based on his industry status as well as the overwhelmingly positive public response to his brief performance this season.

Although the two “Last of Us” pairs could easily prove to be inseparable, Gold Derby’s users are pretty confident that voters will go for Offerman, even with Cromwell’s distinctive work to consider. It’s fairly clear that the race is down to the two of them, as one could say the nomination is the reward for everyone else. Offerman’s generally expected victory is far from guaranteed, but it’s also perilous to go against such a strong consensus.

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