2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Drama Supporting Actress
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One year after becoming the first program in Emmys history to simultaneously net five nominations in a single female acting category, “The White Lotus” has managed to repeat the impressive feat. The only performer involved in both situations is Jennifer Coolidge, who bested her four first season cast mates in the 2022 Best TV Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actress race and is now heavily favored to do the same in the Best Drama Supporting Actress category. Having already bagged Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and Screen Actors Guild Awards for her second season performance, there isn’t much stopping her from once again being called up to the Emmys stage.
The quartet of “White Lotus” ladies Coolidge faces this time consists of Meghann Fahy, Sabrina Impacciatore, Aubrey Plaza, and Simona Tabasco. Also in the running are returning contenders Rhea Seehorn (“Better Call Saul”) and J. Smith-Cameron (“Succession”), who both lost to Julia Garner (“Ozark”) last year, and first-timer Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”).
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In order to determine whether Coolidge has anything to worry about in this case, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.
Jennifer Coolidge as Tanya McQuoid (“The White Lotus”)
Episode: “Arrivederci”
Although “The White Lotus” was initially classified as a limited series, Coolidge and Jon Gries’s continued involvement as pre-established characters meant it had to compete as a continuing drama in its second year. A similar situation occurred when 2011 Best Limited Series winner “Downton Abbey” continued past one season, leading to cross-category supporting victories for Maggie Smith. Coolidge following in Smith’s footsteps hinges on voter response to her second season finale performance, which involves Tanya fighting for her life while trapped on a yacht with a group of charming assassins.
Elizabeth Debicki as Princess Diana (“The Crown”)
Episode: “Couple 31”
Debicki inherited the role of the people’s princess from 2021 lead nominee Emma Corrin, who is five years her junior. In the penultimate installment of the historical drama’s fifth season, which heavily focuses on the dissolution of Diana’s marriage to Prince Charles (Dominic West), the British royals ultimately finalize their divorce after spending months contentiously attempting to agree on settlement terms.
Meghann Fahy as Daphne Sullivan (“The White Lotus”)
Episode: “Arrivederci”
Also hoping to be rewarded for her work in the second “White Lotus” season finale is Fahy, whose past credits include Freeform’s “The Bold Type” and the ABC soap opera “One Life to Live.” As the wife of a wealthy investments manager, her Daphne spends most of their Sicilian couples vacation with friends Ethan (Will Sharpe) and Harper (Aubrey Plaza) feigning obliviousness toward her husband, Cameron’s (Theo James), infidelity but ends up proving that her sunny disposition masks plenty of equally dark secrets.
Sabrina Impacciatore as Valentina (“The White Lotus”)
Episode: “Abductions”
As the manager of the Sicilian White Lotus, Valentina essentially inhabits the role once fulfilled by Emmy-winning first season character Armond (Murray Bartlett). Although he was generally comfortable with his identity as a gay man, she hovers closer to the closet door until, in Impacciatore’s submitted episode, she decides to explore her sexuality with young lounge musician and occasional hooker Mia (Beatrice Grannò).
Aubrey Plaza as Harper Spiller (“The White Lotus”)
Episode: “That’s Amore”
“Parks and Recreation” alum Plaza’s first Emmy nomination comes for her portrayal of a woman whose newly rich husband brings her on a couples getaway with his college roommate and his spouse. Over halfway through their vacation, an intoxicated Harper threatens to expose her knowledge of Cameron’s unfaithfulness in front of his wife before she notices that she has developed her own carnal feelings toward him.
Rhea Seehorn as Kim Wexler (“Better Call Saul”)
Episode: “Waterworks”
Seehorn’s second consecutive nomination for this series makes her the second dramatic actress (after “Game of Thrones” cast member Maisie Williams) to receive a follow-up bid after waiting at least five seasons for her first. In the penultimate episode of this “Breaking Bad” spinoff, a guilt-stricken Kim finds herself unable to convince her ex-husband, Jimmy “Saul Goodman” McGill (Bob Odenkirk), to turn himself in as a criminal, so she leaks information that is sure to bring them both down.
J. Smith-Cameron as Gerri Kellman (“Succession”)
Episode: “Living+”
Smith-Cameron, who was nominated here last year against her “Succession” cast mate, Sarah Snook, now faces no inside competition due to Snook’s reclassification as a lead actress. In her submitted episode, the title of which derives from a luxury assisted living community her deceased boss’ children wish to launch, Waystar general counsel Gerri has a pivotal confrontation with acting co-CEO Roman (Kieran Culkin) that leads to her firing.
Simona Tabasco as Lucia Greco (“The White Lotus”)
Episode: “That’s Amore”
29-year-old Tabasco, who has worked on several Italian series and films over the past decade, appears here as a Sicilian native who ends up engaging in paid sexual trysts with multiple White Lotus guests over the course of a week. In the season’s fifth episode, she and her final target, Albie (Adam DiMarco), grow closer, which sets off alarm bells for his father and her former client, Dominic (Michael Imperioli).
So, who will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Drama Supporting Actress? It must be said that those predicting a “Succession” blowout would do well to remember that, on average, a possible sweep of the seven main drama categories results in just two wins. Even if it happens to take the other six prizes, there’s practically no way enough academy members will use their supporting actress votes for the sole purpose of ensuring a sweep.
Seehorn’s recent Television Critics Association Award victory makes her a viable contender here, but Coolidge (whose show’s cast has so far been completely ignored by the TCA) has amassed a much more impressive precursor awards haul. Bearing in mind Smith’s migratory success and the fact that less than 4% of this category’s winners have been honored past their shows’ fifth seasons, it’s wisest to simply go with the crowd and bet on Coolidge.
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