2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Comedy Guest Actress

Since “Hacks” did not return during the 2023 Emmys eligibility period, there is no chance of a repeat victory for last year’s Best Comedy Guest Actress champ, Laurie Metcalf. This leaves the current race open to an even mix of category newcomers and returning nominees, none of whom have won an acting Emmy before. Quinta Brunson (“Saturday Night Live”) does have an advantage, however, in that she took the 2022 comedy writing prize for “Abbott Elementary” and just landed her second consecutive comedy actress notice for the same series.

For the second year in a row, Harriet Walter has the opportunity to win both female guest Emmys for “Ted Lasso” (comedy) and “Succession” (drama). She faces direct challenges from “Ted Lasso” guests Becky Ann Baker and Sarah Niles, the latter of whom achieved a breakthrough supporting nomination for the same show last year. Then there’s Taraji P. Henson (“Abbott Elementary”) and Judith Light (“Poker Face”), who have yet to win the TV academy’s favor on any of their combined seven bids for other programs.

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In order to make sense of this tight race, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to make your predictions in this and 29 other Creative Arts Emmy categories by September 9.

Becky Ann Baker as Dottie Lasso (“Ted Lasso”)
Episode: “Mom City”

Baker, who was first recognized in this category in 2017 for playing the mother of Lena Dunham’s “Girls” character, provides viewers with more insight into Ted Lasso’s (Jason Sudeikis) psyche by portraying the woman who raised him. As Dottie and Ted spend time together in his London home and workplace, their relationship is shown to be a very loving yet stilted one that causes his anxiety level to spike. Drawing on what he has learned during therapy, Ted ultimately calls out his mother’s improper handling of his father’s suicide, which leads her to force him to face the fact that he is in danger of abandoning his own son.

Quinta Brunson as Host and various sketch characters (“Saturday Night Live”)
Episode: “Host: Quinta Brunson”

Brunson would be the seventh woman to win an Emmy for hosting “SNL,” after Betty White (2010), Tina Fey (2016), Amy Poehler (2016), Melissa McCarthy (2017), Tiffany Haddish (2018), and Maya Rudolph (2021). Having cut her teeth as a sketch performer in BuzzFeed videos and on “A Black Lady Sketch Show,” she naturally fit right in at Studio 8H when she headlined this year’s April 1 show. Among the seven distinctly hilarious characters she crafts throughout the episode are a road rager with questionable pantomiming skills, a woman who learns of her husband’s strangest fears while on a game show, and a male office worker whose inappropriate behavior goes mostly unnoticed.

Taraji P. Henson as Vanetta Teagues (“Abbott Elementary”)
Episode: “Mom”

This is Henson’s first Emmy notice for a comedy program, as her past bids came for her lead performances in the telefilm “Taken from Me: The Tiffany Rubin Story” (2011) and the drama series “Empire” (2015-2016). In the penultimate episode of the latest “Abbott” season, she makes her debut appearance as Janine Teague’s (Brunson) mother, whose overt vanity and penchant for irresponsibility greatly conflict with the qualities her daughter usually displays. As it becomes clear that Vanetta has only reentered Janine’s life out of financial desperation, the two have a serious conversation during which Janine finally establishes healthy boundaries between them.

Judith Light as Irene Smothers (“Poker Face”)
Episode: “Time of the Monkey”

Light’s Emmy resume includes a 2007 bid in this category for “Ugly Betty” as well as supporting nominations for “Transparent” (2016-2017) and “The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story” (2018). Here, she appears opposite S. Epatha Merkerson as one half of an inseparable pair of elderly freedom fighters who befriend retirement community employee and circumstantial sleuth Charlie Cale (Natasha Lyonne). Their bond breaks, however, when Charlie begins to correctly suspect the duo of murdering one of their fellow residents.

Sarah Niles as Dr. Sharon Fieldstone (“Ted Lasso”)
Episode: “Smells Like Mean Spirit”

Niles is now the first woman to ever earn both supporting and guest nominations for playing a single character on a non-sketch comedy series. Her Dr. Sharon makes three appearances during her show’s third season, including in its premiere and finale. In the former’s opening sequence, she takes a call from her former patient, Ted, and mainly listens as he seeks comfort after having reached the end of an extended visit with his beloved son. After wondering out loud why he still lives in England, he tries to ask what Sharon has been up to, but she only tells him the bare minimum before quickly ending the call and returning to bed with an unknown man.

Harriet Walter as Deborah Welton (“Ted Lasso”)
Episode: “So Long, Farewell”

Walter makes her fourth (and probably final) “Ted Lasso” appearance in its third season finale, during which her Deborah provides a listening ear to her daughter, Rebecca (Hannah Waddingham), as she wrestles with the decision of whether or not to relinquish her role as AFC Richmond’s owner. As they share a bottle of wine at the Crown & Anchor pub, Deborah doesn’t hesitate to tell Rebecca to “take the money and run” and explore both the world and herself. Their conversation also entails Deborah revealing how she has adjusted to life as a widow and that her current goal is to become a proficient skateboarder.

So, who will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Comedy Guest Actress? One of the most important stats to keep in mind is that four of the five previous cases in which a show received three or more simultaneous nominations in this category resulted in one of them being successful. If this helped Metcalf pull off her surprise victory over presumed 2022 winner Jane Lynch (“Only Murders in the Building”), it could do the same for one of the “Ted Lasso” ladies as they try to topple frontrunner Henson. However, this instance differs in that Henson may be viewed as overdue for a win, whereas Lynch had already conquered this category, not to mention three others.

In terms of career longevity, Light could rely even more heavily on an overdue narrative, but she may be overshadowed by the equally prolific Walter, who voters might want to ensure doesn’t relive last year’s double loss. She’s in an unprecedented situation, so it’s hard to tell how the academy will respond, but she does pose a threat as the strongest of the three “Ted Lasso” contenders and will thus surely give Henson a run for her money.

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