2022 Emmys Predictions: Our Best Guesses As to Who Will Win Big This Year

The post 2022 Emmys Predictions: Our Best Guesses As to Who Will Win Big This Year appeared first on Consequence.

Like all awards ceremonies, every year the Emmys recognize a wide range of inspiring, hilarious, complex, and/or heartbreaking shows and performances in its nominations, and like all awards ceremonies, the actual winners sometimes feel a little disappointing, if only because the winner was the predictable choice.

So, in that spirit, here is a humble effort to try to guess what and who the TV Academy will choose to recognize this Monday, when the 74th annual Emmy Awards are handed out.

One word to describe the predictions below? Pragmatic is probably the most politically correct term to use. For, sometimes the Emmys can be truly exciting and innovative in their winners, but other times, the awards basically go to the same three shows.

These picks aren’t as single-minded as that — we’ve put in the effort to spread the wealth a little — and also let’s be clear: If all of these were obvious picks, then the Emmys would be boring and there would be no reason to watch. Thus, the one not-so-cynical prediction we’ll make here, the one that really needs to come true, is that this ceremony throws us at least a few exciting curveballs.

(Hopefully, in the direction of Better Call Saul.)

Drama Series

Succession (HBO)

Better Call Saul
Euphoria
Ozark
Severance
Squid Game
Stranger Things
Succession
Yellowjackets

Predicted Winner: Succession

It’s not that Season 3 wasn’t extraordinary — it was — but Succession is the easiest/safest pick to make here, as the Emmys tend to reward past performers over genuinely innovative newcomers, especially in this category. It’d be genuinely lovely to see Severance recognized for its fantastic and timely first season, or Yellowjackets’s incredible momentum continue.

And yes, Better Call Saul should win, but this isn’t technically its last chance at the award — the final episodes will be eligible for next year. If the Emmys hold to form, that’ll probably be when it finally actually wins.

Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Abbott Elementary
Barry
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Hacks
Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso
What We Do in the Shadows

Predicted Winner: Abbott Elementary

This is actually a less cynical pick than others, as Abbott is a lovely little show with a lot of positive buzz around it going into its second season. But it’s a shame that the sharp and nuanced Only Murders in the Building may not break through, not to mention the very deserving and often-overlooked What We Do in the Shadows, which delivered a jaw-dropping and also hilarious Season 3.

Limited Series

The Dropout (Hulu)

Dopesick
The Dropout
Inventing Anna
Pam & Tommy
The White Lotus

Predicted Winner: The Dropout

This is based largely on how it feels like a lot of industry people watched the Elizabeth Holmes docu-drama, one of Hulu’s three nominated series in this category. That being said, Dopesick could benefit from Michael Keaton’s momentum (see below) and The White Lotus could sneak away with it, even though it’s the least Limited Series-y of these five shows (Season 2 premieres this fall).

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Rachel Brosnahan, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Elle Fanning, The Great
Issa Rae, Insecure
Jean Smart, Hacks

Predicted Winner: Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Literally every single woman in this category deserves recognition, but it could be argued that Issa Rae’s swan song on Insecure is the most deserving of a win. Unfortunately, it feels more likely that the Emmys will favor the shiny and new here, and Brunson’s charming and awkward Janine is a standout creation.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Barry (HBO)

Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Nicholas Hoult, The Great
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Predicted Winner: Bill Hader, Barry

The thought process here: Glover doesn’t seem to be actively campaigning and also wasn’t heavily featured in Season 3 of Atlanta and Hoult doesn’t have a ton of buzz despite being one of The Great’s greatest attributes. The big “if”: Will Short and Martin split the vote? If they do, then it’s down to Hader and Sudeikis, both of them former winners, but Hader is perhaps better positioned after a standout season of Barry.

If it does go to an Only Murders gentleman, though, I’m rooting for Steve Martin, and come to think of it, his struggling actor character probably connects with a lot of Emmys voters…

Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

Dopesick (Hulu)

Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Oscar Isaac, Scenes from a Marriage
Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Himesh Patel, Station Eleven
Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy

Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton, Dopesick

In a category that’s literally all movie stars, might as well pick the one who’s been the biggest movie star the longest. (And Keaton does deliver a haymaker of a performance in the Hulu docu-drama.)

Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

The Dropout (Hulu)

Toni Collette, The Staircase
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam & Tommy
Sarah Paulson, Impeachment: American Crime Story
Margaret Qualley, Maid
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

Predicted Winner: Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

Another great collection of actors (albeit a very white one), but Seyfried has a lot of different factors working to her advantage here — the level of transformation involved, not to mention that much-discussed dancing scene. More like the Drop-IN, am I right?

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Yellowjackets (Showtime)

Jodie Comer, Killing Eve
Laura Linney, Ozark
Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets
Sandra Oh, Killing Eve
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show
Zendaya, Euphoria

Predicted Winner: Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets

Zendaya could repeat here, but Lynskey is currently the recipient of a lot of well-deserved industry love right now, and she would give the sweetest speech — you know you want to see it.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Better Call Saul (AMC)

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Brian Cox, Succession
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance
Jeremy Strong, Succession

Predicted Winner: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul

Huh, might be straying away from the concept of “cynical picks,” but between his recent health scare and the critical groundswell of love for the final episodes of Better Call Saul, this might finally go in Odenkirk’s favor. (And if it doesn’t happen this time, at least the Academy has one more year to finally give the man his due.)

The truly cynical pick here, for the record, is Jeremy Strong — who’s great, but has already won once. But, never forget, he’s a serious actor in a drama, what this category is meant to reward.

Supporting Actor In A Comedy Series

Ted Lasso (Apple TV+)

Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Toheeb Jimoh, Ted Lasso
Nick Mohammed, Ted Lasso
Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

Predicted Winner: Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso

You know, every single one of the gentlemen in this category is great and I wouldn’t be mad if they won. But Ted Lasso Season 2 really cemented Roy Kent’s power as a meme-able addiction of a character, and that quality might be what pushes him over the top.

Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Sarah Niles, Ted Lasso
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Predicted Winner: Janelle James, Abbott Elementary

McKinnnon feels like a strong favorite due to this being her last season of Saturday Night Live, but she has won twice already (after nine nominations). Meanwhile, the buzz around James is real — Ava is an out-of-the-gate breakout favorite in a critically beloved show, which makes her feel like an easy pick.

Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

Succession (HBO)

Nicholas Braun, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Park Hae-soo, Squid Game
Matthew Macfadyen, Succession
John Turturro, Severance
Christopher Walken, Severance
Oh Yeong-su, Squid Game

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin, Succession

Two of Squid Game’s best performances are nominated, but it feels like Succession has the advantage here and Culkin’s performance in particular feels like the messiest and most nuanced, at least in ways that may excite voters. Watch out for Cousin Greg, though. He’s a sneaky one, when the occasion calls for it.

Supporting Actress In A Drama Series

Euphoria (HBO)

Patricia Arquette, Severance
Julia Garner, Ozark
Jung Ho-yeon, Squid Game
Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets
Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul
J. Smith-Cameron, Succession
Sarah Snook, Succession
Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria

Predicted Winner: Sydney Sweeney, Euphoria

On a less attempting-to-be-cynical list, this would be Rhea Seehorn, but Sweeney’s profile feels like it’s the biggest at this point. According to Consequence’s resident Euphoria expert Mary Siroky, “She is fantastic with what she’s given — she manages to give Cassie layers even when i feel like Sam Levinson or the script don’t.” But Mary also notes that it’s a stacked category, so who knows? Seehorn or even Emmy favorite Arquette could swoop in.

Supporting Actress In A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie

The White Lotus (HBO)

Connie Britton, The White Lotus
Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Alexandra Daddario, The White Lotus
Kaitlyn Dever, Dopesick
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Sydney Sweeney, The White Lotus
Mare Winningham, Dopesick

Predicted Winner: Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus

Should the winner be someone from The White Lotus, The White Lotus, or, hear me out here, The White Lotus? Okay, Dopesick is also in the mix here, and Dever delivered yet another incredible performance as a struggling addict, but from the White Lotus ensemble Coolidge feels the most deserving. Plus, it’s actually pretty neat to think of her getting an Emmy.

It’s hard to stay cynical, y’all! For as meaningless as awards might seem, you do want to see them go to the right people. We’ll find out if that does actually happen next Monday, as Kenan Thompson hosts the 2022 Emmy Awards on NBC.

2022 Emmys Predictions: Our Best Guesses As to Who Will Win Big This Year
Liz Shannon Miller

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