2020 AFC East Preview
Yahoo Sports’ Senior NFL Writer Frank Schwab gives an in-depth breakdown of the division. Including team-by-team roster changes, key points of the schedule, and his over/under picks for season win totals.
Video Transcript
FRANK SCHWAB: The New England Patriots have won the AFC East an NFL-record 11 straight times, but with Tom Brady out of the division, does that open things up for another team to take the division crown? Let's take a look team by team at the AFC East, and we're going to start with the Buffalo Bills, who are on the rise and had a pretty good offseason.
A lot of their moves weren't splashy but just to help depth. But they did make one big move, and that's trading for Minnesota Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs. It gives the Bills a true number one, and they paid a lot to get him, but I think that's going to have an enormous impact on the offense and Josh Allen's development.
When I take a look at the schedule, you have to circle two games right away, and they're the games against the Patriots. The Bills play the Patriots in week eight and then a Monday Night Football in New England week 16. That game could be monumental for the AFC East.
Over/under at BetMGM for the Bills this year is 8 and 1/2. I'm going over. I like the direction they're on. They're well coached. I think Josh Allen is getting better. This defense is really, really good, and I'm easily taking the over on the Bills at 8 and 1/2.
Moving on to the New England Patriots, who are going to look a lot different this year. We all know the big departure of Tom Brady to Tampa Bay, but other players left too. They lost key pieces like Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton. This team lost a lot. There's no getting around that. It looks like the Patriots are going to go to Jarrett Stidham at quarterback, and he's going to be tested early.
When I look at the schedule, two games really stand out, at Seattle in week two and then at Kansas City in week four. We're going to know right away if Stidham can play and handle these tough environments.
At BetMGM, the Patriots over/under win total is 9 and 1/2. There's a lot of action coming in on the under. The odds are slanted towards the under, but I'm going to go over. Until the New England patriots show that they're not the same team they've been under Bill Belichick, I'm going to continue to believe in them. This is not a team that's going to fall off the map. They're not going to be in contention for the first pick of the draft like some people are thinking.
The Patriots are still going to be a competitive team. I think Stidham's going to be a little bit better than people anticipate, and I trust Bill Belichick, so I'm still taking the over with the Patriots.
Now we move to a very interesting Miami Dolphins team who had a roster transformation in the offseason. They really spent a lot of money in free agency, getting key guys like cornerback Byron Jones, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, and then had a huge draft. They had six picks in the top 70, but obviously the crown jewel in that is Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If he can start right away-- we don't know yet if the hip is quite healthy-- the Dolphins could really be an exciting team. And if not, they still do have Ryan Fitzpatrick.
When I look at the Dolphins' schedule, they're going be tested right away. They play at the New England Patriots in week one and then host the Buffalo Bills, the two best teams in the AFC East in my opinion. If Tagovailoa is starting right away, they're a huge test for him. And even if it's Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins are going to have to get off to a moderately decent start if they're going to get some momentum into the rest of the season.
The Dolphins' win total at BetMGM is just 6, and I'm going to go over. It's a tough line and might end up being right on 6, but they've added so much this offseason. And especially if Tagovailoa is healthy and plays well, this Dolphins team could be really interesting in 2020.
And finally we get to the New York Jets who didn't do a ton to help Sam Darnold when it comes to receivers and tight ends, but they did improve the offensive line, including first-round pick Mekhi Becton, the huge left tackle. They also improved at cornerback as well, getting Pierre Desir, and also retooled a bit at receiver. Robby Anderson's gone, but they brought in Breshad Perriman, drafted Denzel Mims. I really do like a lot of the moves the Jets made this offseason.
When I look at the Jets' schedule, they're going be tested right away out of the gates. They start at the Bills, who are much improved. They then play the 49ers, who are the NFC champs, and then play at the Colts who could be a tough out as well, especially on the road. You can't go 0 and 3 in that stretch. They have to scratch out at least one win, and two would be preferable.
The Jets win total at BetMGM is 6 and 1/2, and I'm still going to take the under. There are reasons to think that this team could be much improved this year. Sam Darnold's going to be healthy. The offensive line is better. But I still see holes on the roster, and I really don't trust Adam Gase. It's not a strong bet, but I would still take the Jets under 6 and 1/2 this season.
If you want to get in on the action, go to betmgm.com/yahoo and sign up today. New users get 100% match up to $1,000 on first-time deposits.
To recap the AFC East, I'm going to say something that hasn't been said in a long time. Someone other than the Patriots are going to win the division. I had the Buffalo Bills at first place in the division, the Patriots being better than people expect but still second place. Then I have the Miami Dolphins in third and the Jets in fourth, although I think those two teams could end up being tied for that spot at the end of the year.