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The Oracle of Omaha warns about AI: What Buffett said at Berkshire
Warren Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that he has mixed feelings about artificial intelligence — in a tone he's expressed before.
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Reminder that economic data can be like a 'full-on Monet'
From a distance, patterns and trends become clear. But seen up close economic data is a mess.
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The inverted yield curve and the Leading Economic Index have failed as recession predictors
While the inverted yield curve may have a good track record of predicting recessions, it’s not very precise in predicting when recessions will start.
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Here are the upside risks to watch
In the markets and the economy, things rarely unfold exactly as expected. Often they’re better than expected. Sometimes they’re far worse. In the same way that it’s helpful for investors to be mentally prepared for bad news and market volatility, it’s smart to balance that by also understanding what could go right.
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Revisiting Warren Buffett's greatest trade – switching philosophies
Buffett’s greatest trade didn’t involve any single financial security. Rather, I’d say his greatest trade was selling "cigar butt" investing and buying the investing philosophy championed by his right-hand man.
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Too early to call impact of layoffs on macro economy
The strength of the stock market seems in conflict with the plethora of news headlines on companies announcing layoffs.
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Recession worries recede
Coming into 2024, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale were among a handful of banks whose economists were calling for a recession in 2024. Last week, they both pulled that call.
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Viewing the market through relatives and absolutes
Various aspects of the markets and the economy can be worse and good, simultaneously. They can also be both better and bad.
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Whether or not the Fed cuts rates is not the right question
As far as whether or not the Fed actually pivots and begins to cut rates, that's really not the right question. The question should be, "If they don't cut, then why are they not cutting as they suggested in their dot plots?"
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Stock market all-time highs: The long game remains undefeated
Stocks made record highs last week, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.2% to close at 4,839.81. The index is now up 1.5% year to date and up 35.3% from its October 12, 2022 closing low of 3,577.03.
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4 different ways of looking at the exact same economy
Often times, those discussing what’s driving the stock market will appear in conflict with those discussing what’s driving the economy. And sometimes, those discussing what’s driving the economy will appear in conflict with each other.
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A weak week for stocks doesn't necessarily mean a rough year ahead
Nothing triggers investor anxiety like a weak week for stocks.
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9 economic trends to watch in 2024
Wall Street economists and market strategists entered 2023 expecting a recession and predicting unusually weak returns for stocks.
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The shifting views on the economy in 2023
Inflation continues to dominate conversations about the markets and the economy. But the nature of those conversations have shifted significantly over the past year.
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The very hot economy is cooling from great to good
It’s great news that the US economy continues to create a lot of jobs every month. Still, it’s worth having a frank discussion about how the economy is cooling.
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What analysts are saying about Wall Street's 2024 outlook
It’s that time of year when Wall Street’s top strategists tell clients where they see the stock market heading in the year ahead. Typically, the average forecast for the group predicts the S&P 500 climbing by about 10%, which is in line with historical averages.
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Turning the corner on the inflation crisis
While prices for most goods and services aren’t deflating as they are for turkeys, the inflation rates have certainly eased. And, importantly, concerns about prices are receding.
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Rising delinquencies offer economic warning signs
While the overall data indicate continued economic growth, there are signs of stress developing that bear watching.
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A 5-step guide to process ambiguous news about the economy
How does one decide between the positive interpretation versus the negative interpretation of the economy?
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True value always prevails against technological advancement
While I expect work related to the more tedious and mundane forms of writing could become automated, I think there are many forms that’ll continue regardless of how good the technology gets.