M
    Minyanville

    Minyanville

    Contributor

  • Market Recap: Markets Wobble Late on Fannie and Freddie News

    Stocks wobbled late as a government regulator revealed that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could cost US taxpayers as much as $363 billion to stay afloat if housing prices continue to drop over the next two years. The report's best case scenario said Fannie and Freddie would only cost taxpayers a total of $221 billion while moderate economic growth in the US would bring the grand total to $238 billion.The Dow Jones closed up 38.60 points (0.35%) to close at 11 146.57 while the S&P eked out a gain of 2.09 points (0.18%) to close out at 1 180.26.

  • China, Trying to Avoid Japan's Mistakes, Is Actually Following Same Path

    Chinese officials face a major dilemma. Real interest rates are far too low by any standard. As a result overinvestment in construction manufacturing and infrastructure are exacerbating massive overcapacity.

  • The Long Candlestick: A Strong Reversal Signal

    There are many variations of candlesticks including one-day two-day and three-day reversal signals. One of the more reliable is the long candlestick a day with exceptional distance between open and close. It's a strong reversal signal when it appears after a short-term trend and when its color is opposite of the trend directionFor example when an uptrend has been in effect and a long black session appears it often precedes a sharp reversal and price decline.

  • Prepare for the Arrival of Severe State Budget Cuts

    My friend "BC" pinged me with some interesting employment stats regarding the state of Oregon that apply in varying degrees to every state in the union and arguably most countries in the world:  Oregon total payroll employment has not grown in 11 years which is not unlike most of the rest of the US.However adjusting for OR population growth payroll employment is back to the level of the early '90s.But it's worse than that. Private payrolls are back to the level of '97 and adjusting for population there are fewer private payroll jobs per capita than the late '80s ...

  • Weekly Swing Chart Turndown Will Indicate What's Ahead

    And if you come undone as if you’ve been run throughSome catapult it fired you you wonder if your chance will ever comeOr if you’re stuck in square one-- "Square One" (Coldplay)Legendary trader W.D. Gann believed that the "natural" year begins on the Vernal Equinox or March 20/21. The sun rules the seasons which are defined by the solstices and equinoxes.If you begin the year with the start of Spring on March 21 then the end of the first month or the end of the opening range of the year would be on April 19/20.The low of the week ...

  • Today's Headwinds: Apple, IBM Stocks Down After Posting Solid Gains, China Surprises With Rate Hike

    Yesterday I pointed out that the overall pricing action had yet to give market players any real reason to bet against the bulls. Both Apple (AAPL) and IBM (IBM) had posted some remarkable gains recently and the way in which investors reacted to those reports would give us good insight into the overall mood in the near-term.By many accounts both companies delivered solid numbers.

  • Johnson & Johnson Still Bleeding From Consumer Recall

    Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) quality control problems are still haunting the health care giant pinching quarterly sales and sending the company’s shares down today.Last spring some Wall Street analysts the financial press and investors largely dismissed the impact of a big Johnson & Johnson recall - the largest ever of store-shelf children’s medicines. Because consumer products including over the counter medicines are just a piece of Johnson & Johnson’s business the company can weather the storm they said. “J&J a ‘Buy’ Despite Recall ” read a Barron’s headline on May 3.By July the stock tumbled as more details about ...

  • Steve Jobs Takes on Android, BlackBerry in Apple Earnings Call

    For its fourth quarter earnings call Apple (AAPL) had much to celebrate. The company posted record revenue of $20.34 billion and net quarterly profit of $4.31 billion or $4.64 per diluted share. With the continued popularity of Apple's mobile devices sales are holding strong.

  • Morning Roundup: Markets Plunge on Mixed Earnings

    Markets dipped this morning despite several positive earnings reports that included negative twists. Aside from earnings US housing starts rose to a five-month high in September to a 610 000 annual rate. Housing starts are at their highest rate since April and are up 0.3% from a revised 608.000 annual rate in August.

  • State Governments Hocking the Family Silver to Cover the Rent

    On October 8 2010 California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger signed a compromise budget that closed the $19 billion state budget shortfall 100 days overdue. Three days later Ron Diedrich acting director of the California Department of General Services proclaimed he had completed a deal to sell 24 government buildings to a consortium called California First LLC. The deal in which California will leaseback the space was completed for the sum of $2.3 billion $1 billion of which will be used to pay off the current debt on the buildings and the rest going to the state's general fund.

  • Think Porn Is a Legitimate Business? Think Again

    True or false?  The porn business generates some $10 billion to $14 billion a year in annual sales and is a “bigger business than professional football basketball and baseball put together.” The porn business is a business like any other. If you answered “true” to any of the above you’d be dead wrong.

  • Where Is the Housing Recovery?

    Trouble oh we got trouble Right here in River City! With a capital "T" That rhymes with "P" And that stands for Pool That stands for pool. The real monster is hidden in those pools of subprime debt that haven’t gone away.

  • Botox Approved as Migraine Treatment

    How long can a drug company milk one product for new revenue? Decades in the case of Botox maker Allergan (AGN) which just won approval for a new use of the wrinkle smoother to treat migraine headaches.Allergan spent years getting clearances for new uses of Botox from reducing sweating to relieving neck pain.

  • Despite Lack of Clues From Indices, Economy Still in Protracted Recession

    One of the biggest difficulties that individual investors often run into is the fact that the action in the broader market just doesn’t seem very logical at times and lately we’re seeing a very good example of that. Since the lows of August the market has been on an absolute tear blowing through resistance points without the slightest pause and confounding even the most seasoned of traders.Profiting over the past 19 months or so has required a willingness to ignore a steady diet of data that while generally improving certainly doesn’t seem to support the sorts of runs to ...

  • Under the Hood: PowerShares SmallCap Energy ETF

    Earlier this year Invesco PowerShares brought a suite of nine small-cap sector ETFs to market designed to be small-cap equivalents to the Select Sector SPDRs ETFs.A solid idea to be sure and one that drew the ire of the SPDR folks because the PowerShares offerings have the same tickers as the comparable SPDR funds except with "S" at the end.State Street Global Advisors didn't like that and took PowerShares to court over a trademark dispute but this isn't a legal column so let's not delay any longer and go under the hood with the PowerShares S&P SmallCap Energy ETF ...

  • Watchdog Finds Treasury's Reliance on Contractors Shielded Bailout Work from Scrutiny

    Some of the most critical functions of the bailout program are being performed by private contractors that may have conflicts of interest and are not subject to the same disclosure requirements as government agencies according to a report released yesterday by the government’s bailout watchdog. As many as 96 outside companies helped the government administer the TARP program and their duties ranged from simply helping the government obtain goods and services to "inherently governmental functions " such as the management of TARP investments.As a result “substantial portions of the work performed to effectuate the TARP may be forever shielded ...

  • AMD's Third Quarter Earnings Report: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

    Not now but 10 years from now.”-- Tom HagenAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD) delivered its third-quarter earnings report after the close yesterday and I’m here to provide you with the good the bad and the ugly takeaways from the numbers. The GoodAMD reported a third-quarter profit of $0.15 a share that was way ahead of the consensus forecast calling ...

  • Currency: The Weapon of Choice in Trade Wars in a World of Lower Demand

    Volatility of currency exchange rates has increased markedly in recent months.To paraphrase Oscar Wilde the US dollar has no enemies but is intensely disliked by its friends especially key investors like the Chinese. The euro is now the "drachmark" (a derisory combination of the former Greek drachma and German deutsche mark).

  • Closes Above 4806.1 for Transports, 11,205.03 for Industrials Are Dow Theory Buy Signals

    The yield on the 10-year note rose to a test of my weekly pivot on Thursday solidifying that the effect of quantitative easing II (QE2) should be limited to my quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.265 and 2.249.

  • QE2 and Rising Markets: Where Can Investors Find Real Value?

    As we watch the Fed prepare to pump ever-increasing amounts of liquidity into the US monetary system (between $500 billion and $2 trillion is being discussed) we observe the price of listed securities and commodities rising giving the appearance that there's a direct connection between Fed QE2 and the actual value of stocks bonds and traded commodities. If the Fed were to buy $2 trillion of bonds the effect on GDP would be an increase of somewhere between 50 and 100 bps according to various economists.