David Pennock

    Computer Scientist

  • ‘It’s the president, stupid’: Elections drive the economy, too

    Last year, the Signal noticed an eerie correspondence between the highs and lows of the S&P 500 stock market index and the ups and downs of President Barack Obama's odds of winning re-election in the prediction markets. Almost a year later, the two data sets continue to move in remarkable lockstep. As thorny correlation issues [...]

  • Why we’re happy we got one prediction wrong on Super Tuesday

    On Super Tuesday, the Signal got 9 out of 10 election predictions correct, following up on an Oscar night where we got 3 of 4 award picks right. Not bad, but we really wish we didn't have those two annoying blemishes, right? In fact, we're delighted! When the markets are functioning properly, we expect to [...]

  • Could Putin need two rounds to win the Russian presidency? Not likely.

    Russians will go to the polls on Sunday to elect their next President, and as over 30,000 web pages note verbatim, Vladimir Putin is "expected to win." But just how certain is "expected" in the often-shady world of Russian politics? We're no Kremlinologists, but we can find a reliable gauge of Putin's likelihood of winning [...]

  • As expected, markets congeal around Romney after big ‘enough’ victory in Michigan

    Strictly by the numbers, Mitt Romney's narrow victory last night in his home state of Michigan was modest. He won only 3 percent more votes than second-place finisher Rick Santorum and, because the primary is not winner take all, the two candidates will split the real prize -- Republican delegates -- nearly equally. In his [...]

  • How to fix the primaries: Treat them like a market, with delegates as dollars

    It's no secret that states with early primaries or caucuses have had an outsized influence on the outcome of the nomination. Cutting to the front of the calendar is such a boon, particularly given the economic boost that campaigns deliver, that states are willing to sacrifice their influence at the convention in order to hold [...]

  • Romney win captivates Twitter–for 10 minutes

    Almost immediately after polls closed at 8 p.m. ET, the major networks called the state of Florida for Mitt Romney. The markets were extremely confident in this outcome, as we noted yesterday, so there was no major movement in the overall odds for the nomination; Romney crept up about two percentage points to an 88 [...]

  • Romney-Christie, Gingrich-Rubio are most likely ticket pairings

    If you're curious why the candidates were tripping over themselves to out-praise Marco Rubio, Florida's Republican junior senator, at the last debate, look no further than the political market Intrade, where Rubio is in first place to be second fiddle with a 24 percent chance of being the eventual winner's running mate. (Meanwhile Joe Biden is the [...]

  • Newt Gingrich is again the favorite to win the South Carolina Republican primary

    Two days ago, Mitt Romney was looking at a clean sweep of the first three contests of the 2012 primary. With polls opening at 7 a.m. EST tomorrow, he's now looking at going one-for-three. First, he lost his technical 8-vote victory in Iowa to Rick Santorum (though let's face it: It was a tie.) Now, [...]

  • Gingrich receives small boost in markets after strong debate performance in South Carolina

    By many accounts, Newt Gingrich won the Fox News Republican debate Monday night in Myrtle Beach, S.C. He even received a two-minute standing ovation, apparently the first in a debate since 1980. Meanwhile, Gingrich earned, if not a standing-O, at least a nod on prediction markets Intrade and Betfair, where political handicappers rate his chances [...]

  • Evangelical leaders endorse Santorum, to Romney’s benefit

    Almost two hundred evangelical leaders gathered on a Texas ranch over the weekend to make one last anyone-but-Romney stand, coming to a near-consensus and endorsing Rick Santorum as their Republican candidate of choice. Santorum immediately enjoyed a small but significant boost in the prediction markets, nearly doubling his chance of winning the South Carolina Republican [...]

  • If Romney wins South Carolina, he’s 95% likely to win Florida and Nevada too

    On the day of the Iowa caucuses last week, the prediction markets Intrade and Betfair gave Mitt Romney a 44 percent chance of winning the South Carolina primary. After barely winning Iowa and handily winning New Hampshire, Romney's chances in the Palmetto State now stand close to 70 percent. But Romney's rise does not necessarily reflect [...]

  • Ron Paul winning the Twitter race, falling in prediction markets

    As the votes are being counted in Iowa, the twitterverse is ablaze with comments about #iacaucus. True to form, Ron Paul's hall-of-mirrors effect on the Internet is propelling him to win the race for biggest buzz, including most tweets and most searches. Meanwhile, after taking a brief lead in the prediction markets, peaking near a [...]

  • Pro-Romney advertising did not wait one second of 2012

    The Times Square ball drop on New Year's Eve was officially sponsored by Toshiba, but if you tuned in right at midnight you could be forgiven for thinking Mitt Romney was bankrolling the celebration. As fireworks detonated to mark the first seconds of 2012, a red-white-and-blue "Mitt Romney 2012" billboard flashed behind the ball. An [...]

  • In Republican debate, Gingrich and Romney make big bets

    Both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich placed prominent wagers in Saturday night's Republican Presidential debate. Romney's was spontaneous and flip while Gingrich's was calculated and quite cold. Meanwhile, prediction market traders bet on whose bet was best, giving Gingrich a significant edge. Romney, denying an allegation that he endorsed mandatory national health insurance in the [...]

  • Prediction markets: Gingrich is electable

    Worried that the Democratic base won't muster the same urgency and energy it did in 2008, Barack Obama's campaign may be privately salivating over the prospect of a general election contest against Newt Gingrich. Arguably, the image of a President Gingrich should be even more horrifying to progressives than a McCain administration. Whether he deserves [...]

  • It’s the stock market, stupid? Why Obama is no longer the underdog

    Pretty much since the day he was elected president of the United States in November 2008, Barack Obama has been the favorite on prediction markets like Intrade and Betfair to win re-election for a second term, as most incumbents do. That changed in September and October, when the budget stalemate and grim economic news turned [...]

  • Proportional voting in the GOP primary won’t matter without proportional thinking

    This year, in state Republican caucuses and primaries held prior to April 1, presidential candidates will earn delegates in proportion to the percentage of the vote they win in the state. So, for instance, if Mitt Romney wins the Iowa caucus January 3, which the prediction markets project with 34.9 percent likelihood, he won't take home [...]

  • Opponents of Protect IP Act stage American Censorship Day November 16

    On November 16, online activists plan to publicize their cause in the ongoing standoff over the media industry's crackdown on the illegal downloading of copyrighted content. As part of the campaign to block two major pieces of federal anti-piracy legislation, the Protect IP Act (PIPA) in the Senate and the Stop Online Piracy/E-Parasites Act (SOPA) in the [...]

  • Perry plummets in prediction markets after debate gaffe

    In some ways it was no big deal. Rick Perry couldn't remember the third of three government agencies he would shut down if elected. But this was live during CNBC's Republican debate Wednesday night, and Gov. Perry didn't handle his senior moment with grace. He finally admitted, "No, I can't [remember], oops." In a pre-YouTube [...]

  • A Signal mission: Putting a number on uncertainty

    Uncertainty means being unsure, at least a little, about the outcome of some event in the future. Who will win the Super Bowl in 2012? Who will be our President in 2013? I don't know. No one knows. Anyone who says they know with conviction is either lying, delusional, or has inside knowledge that I [...]