Chris Bailey

  • Brexit: Who you should really be listening to

    The details around Brexit and its impact on the day-to-day economy matter, but with so little certainty and time slipping away, who should you believe?

  • Why you shouldn't worry about the threat of higher interest rates

    We've never had it so good with interest rates, argues Financial Orbit's Chris Bailey.

  • 1 chart that shows why UK equities haven't performed this badly for 40 years

    First Provident Financial – a lender to the unbanked or those needing a touch of financial assistance before pay day – came a cropper with a news update that included a profit warning, a financial regulator investigation, a CEO resignation and a suspension of the dividend (only!).

  • The financial crisis 10 years on: Why consumer conditions could create the next perfect storm

    Ten years on from the financial crisis, analyst Chris Bailey believes the UK is in danger of repeating a number of its old mistakes.

  • Despite Brexit uncertainty don’t panic buy your holiday currency just yet

    If anything – especially versus the dollar – the pound is going up.

  • May's election gamble doesn't pay off, sterling plunges

    The biggest reaction came from the value of the British Pound which fell over 1.5% since the close of the US markets on Thursday.

  • How the global markets reacted to UK General Election 2017 exit poll

    Overall, the reaction of the global markets tells us that the interpretation of the UK General Election exit poll is that the Pound is going lower, Brexit will be potentially tougher to negotiate, internationally-oriented UK shares are going to be stronger.

  • Macron's victory is a triumph for Europe – but the real work starts now

    Macron’s success is a triumph for the European ideal, but his biggest challenge will be to shape a coalition of like-minded interests in the French Parliament to push through much-needed reforms.

  • Patchy UK economic growth…but at least the banks are getting stronger

    Patchy UK economic growth…but at least the banks are getting stronger

  • French Presidential election round 1: France votes for something different…but not too different

    So the pollsters were – for once in the last couple of years – absolutely spot-on. The two candidates for the second round of the French Presidential election in just under a couple of weeks’ time will be the centrist Emmanuel Macron and the populist Marine Le Pen.

  • Will the French Presidential election hurt the value of your pension fund?

    My instinct is that if he was still alive Charles de Gaulle would not be impressed by the French Presidential race of 2017 and would probably think he could sweep the field if he ran himself.

  • Why you should be buying more chocolate this Easter

    Cocoa price-linked investments are almost as exotic as the history, intrigue and stories around the product itself, but having something at least chocolate facing in your portfolio makes some sense.

  • WD-40 tells us everything we need to know about the financial world today... yes, really

    ‘Everything can be fixed by either duct tape or WD40: If it doesn’t move and it should, use WD-40. With my finance geek hat back on again, the other aspect I really like about WD-40 as a company is that they report early in the global quarterly earnings cycle. As a company that sells its eponymous product all around the world to consumers and businesses alike, it also provides some great insights into the big, bad, global world out there.

  • The winners and losers in the world’s financial markets so far in 2017

    There is only one thing to do if you are writing an investment column on 31 March…and that is to give out some awards for the winners, losers, geniuses and failures in the world’s financial markets during the first quarter of 2017 based on my completely subjective personal view. All lobbying, postal ballots and corporate hospitality must now desist.  Please. The Excitable Investment Salesperson Because Markets Are Surprisingly Up award for most surprising equity market performance of the first quarter goes to…the Euro Zone equity markets which comfortably out-pointed equivalent markets in the UK and the US despite the spectre of political uncertainty and institutional angst.

  • Should you be fearful of a stock market crash?

    Given the wondrous returns from most equity and bond markets since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, we are overdue a correction, especially as recent history has seen such muted volatility in leading global bourses. A stock market cycle is always significantly more volatile than an economic cycle because of two of the most influential words in finance: ‘fear’ and ‘greed’. Investors have been spoilt in recent years – and memories of the deeply volatile stock markets over just under a decade ago have wilted from the collective memory of financial market participants.

  • No pressure, but the future of the UK economy depends on your spending

    ‘My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there’ – Charles Kettering, American inventor, engineer and businessman. The better interpretation is that some of the aforementioned political factors, plus events in Europe like the election in the Netherlands, have failed to hurt financial markets. Meanwhile, the pound performed a mini renaissance as the week progressed and it recovered from comments about Scottish independence, Article 50 and the embarrassing revelations that led to the resignation of the deputy governor of the Bank of England, Charlotte Hogg.

  • The really big message from the UK Budget (that people are not talking about)

    Do you know how to judge whether the history books will be kind on the Budget statement given on Wednesday by the Chancellor of the Exchequer? Back in November at the time of the Autumn Statement growth of 1.4% for the UK economy in 2017 was anticipated but in the Budget statement this had been hiked to 2%.

  • Do you like investing in fool’s gold? Snap, IPOs and the FCA

    Now from the outset I want to make this clear that this has nothing to do with gold which remains – in my view – a great mixer investment for your core holdings of a diversified range of equities in today’s world. No, the fool’s gold I am referring to is that old chestnut of initial public offerings (IPO).

  • "Fancy being Warren Buffett? Then worry about the future and not the past" says analyst Chris Bailey

    ‘Accounting does not make corporate earnings or balance sheets more volatile. Anyone who fancies being the next Warren Buffett has had a busy week with a lot of corporate earnings disclosures. In the London market alone large cap mining names such as BHP Billiton, Anglo American and Glencore have shared their thoughts whilst in the banking sector a long list including HSBC, Lloyds, Barclays, RBS and Standard Chartered have dumped a bunch of new insights on an unsuspecting population.

  • What your pension fund manager is worried about (and why you should do the opposite) says Chris Bailey

    A man cleans the glasses of the vault of the Mexican stock exchange building on November 15, 2016, in Mexico City. You probably formally hear from your pension fund manager once or twice a year.  Every month though they collectively tell the world what they are excited or worried about in an industry survey.  Fantastic! Now the reason why this is more exciting than it sounds is that the key to successful investing is to combine real insight with a sense of timing – in short to be correctly positioned in the right investments just before the weight of global money follows you and drives up the price of your preferred equity or asset class.