Just the Facts: FSU football vs. Florida Gators

This year's Florida State-Florida game won't have the remarkably high stakes of some of the all-time matchups from years past.

But there will be plenty on the line Saturday when the Seminoles (5-6, 4-4 in ACC) and Gators (5-6, 2-6 in SEC) clash at noon at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville.

For the first time in the history of the rivalry, both teams enter their season-ending clash with five wins. Only one can win this weekend and get bowl eligible with a sixth win.

While one is often advised to throw the records out in rivalry games, one can't deny that momentum is firmly on the Seminoles' side entering this year's game. FSU has won five of its last seven games and would become the first team since 1986 to get to six wins after a 0-4 start with a win over the Gators.

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The Gators have lost five of their last seven games, with the only two wins coming FCS opponent Samford and Vanderbilt, which has gone winless in SEC play. Last week's UF loss at Missouri led to the firing of head coach Dan Mullen near the end of his fourth season atop the program.

UF running backs coach Greg Knox will serve as the Gators' interim head coach. It's his second interim stint as he also led Mississippi State to a Gator Bowl win over Louisville in 2017 when Mullen left early to take the Florida job.

Despite all of this, the Gators opened as two-point favorites over FSU. As of Friday afternoon, UF is favored by three points.

While UF leads the all-time series 36-26, FSU has won four of the last five games against the Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Seminoles have won seven of the last 10 over UF, but the Gators enter this year's game on a two-game winning streak with comfortable wins in 2019 and 2020.

Why Florida State will win

FSU is definitely in a more stable position right now.

It's a wild sentiment considering Florida played in New Year's Six bowls each of the previous three seasons while FSU didn't have a single winning season over that span. But it's undeniable that the Seminoles have the positive buzz entering this year's game.

It's a credit to what Mike Norvell, his staff and the FSU roster have done this season since the team's 0-4 start and it's a big reason why the Seminoles seem like a trendy pick to win their third in a row and get to six wins.

FSU has built an offensive identity around quarterback Jordan Travis, who has 1,262 yards of offense, 13 total touchdowns and no turnovers over his last five games.

On defense, the Seminoles have grown tremendously over the course of the season thanks to their stellar defensive line and finding the right combination of players in the secondary.

FSU has +7 turnover margin over the last six games and has at least one interception in each of the last seven games, nine in total. Going up against a Florida offense that has thrown 15 interceptions this season, second-most among Power Five teams, and the reasons why the needle may point to FSU.

By comparison, UF has no stability of late. Two weeks ago, the Gators allowed 52 points to Samford, but scored 70 to avoid the embarrassing loss. Last week, UF managed just 16 points in regulation against a Missouri defense that was allowing nearly 36 points per game entering the game.

Is it possible that the Gators rally behind their interim staff to win a game for them like FSU did for Odell Haggins in 2019? Absolutely. But there are not the same emotional stakes for UF and for a team trying to clasp onto bowl eligibility during a season that has wildly failed to meet expectations, it's fair to question if that will come.

Why Florida will win

While UF's motivation entering this game can be questioned, its talent cannot.

The Gators' roster, despite all the program turmoil, remains more talented than FSU's on paper.

Florida has gone away from its run game more as the season has progressed -- failing to run the ball 40-plus times in any of its last seven games since doing so in each of its first four games -- but that has been a major strength. UF's 5.65 yards per carry rank fourth nationally behind only Ohio State, Baylor and Utah.

This hasn't especially been an area of weakness for FSU's defense, but the Seminoles have had problems this season with limiting what mobile quarterbacks have been able to do on the ground.

Whether it's Emory Jones -- who suffered an ankle injury in practice this week and is questionable -- or Anthony Richardson, they will prove a major threat on the ground with a combined 1,048 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns between them this season.

Additionally, Florida has just one fewer sack (31) than FSU does this season (32). The Gators' defensive front could wreak havoc especially with the statuses of a few FSU offensive linemen in doubt. Can right guard Devontay Love-Taylor return this week after he was unable to play last week? Will right tackle Darius Washington play after leaving the BC game with an injury?

Especially if the answer to both of those is no, it may prove to be a problem for FSU's offensive production.

Tune in

The game will be broadcast at noon on ESPN from Gainesville. Mark Jones and Robert Griffin III will be in the booth and Quint Kessenich will be the sideline reporter.

The FSU radio broadcast with Gene Deckerhoff, William Floyd and Tom Block will be on 94.9 FM locally and on FSU radio affiliates across the state.

Predictions

Curt Weiler

I'm interested to see how this game starts as I think that will tell us a lot about how it plays out.

If FSU is able to jump out to a sizable early lead as it did each of the last two weeks, I just don't see Florida being able to rally like Miami and Boston College did due to all the turmoil surrounding the program.

However, if the Gators come to play and are up to the task early, we could be in for another extremely good chapter in the FSU-UF rivalry.

In the end, I think the identity FSU has found and all the things plaguing Florida are too much to overcome. I have the Seminoles capping a remarkable season-ending run with a bowl appearance.

Florida State 34, Florida 24

Andre Fernandez

Situations like the one Florida is facing this weekend sometimes cause a positive response from a team. The Gators have been in a downward spiral for weeks leading to the school dismissing Mullen. With assistant coach Greg Knox in charge this weekend, it’s unclear what kind of response he will get from his team.

But this team fired defensive coordinator Todd Grantham and then proceeded to give up a record-tying 52 points to FCS Samford two weeks ago and then couldn’t slow down Missouri in overtime in a 24-23 loss.

While FSU hasn’t been as talented on paper to a lot of the opponents it has faced this season, it is far more stable right now, trending upward having won five of its past seven games, and has shown resilience even in the most hostile of environments this season.

The Seminoles might have some trouble handling a potential inspired start by the home team looking for a fresh start. But if FSU’s defense continues to make the game-changing plays it has the past two weeks, look for that to be the telling factor again.

Florida State 30, Florida 28

Florida State at Florida

When: Saturday, noon

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville

TV/Radio: ESPN/94.9 FM

Reach Curt Weiler at cweiler@tallahassee.com or follow him on Twitter @CurtMWeiler.

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida State football at Florida Gators: Why FSU could win Saturday